Thursday should see the resumption of the ‘classic’ bunch sprint as we reach Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 12. The riders will probably be looking forward to the next two stages as there are few climbs on either day.
Three wins in three stages for me with an epic performance by Omar Fraile on Wednesday. Fraile also moved into a tie for the lead in the KOTM classification. He was my selection to win this classification pre-race.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 12 – Stage Profile
Stage 12, at 234kms, is the longest of the 2017 Giro. The stage starts in Forli and finishes in Reggio Emilia and looks like being another stage for the sprinters.
There are two classified climbs on the stage but they are spaced out fairly well and both come in the first half of the profile.
The first climb is the Colla Di Casaglia – a category 2 climb which the riders will cross at the 63km point.
This is followed by the category 3 Valico Appeninico which is peaked at 111kms. The rest of the stage is the descent from this climb then about 80kms of flat roads to the line.
A break will definitely go but as this is one of only two remaining stages for the sprinters look for it to be marshalled and closed down.
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Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 12 – Favourites
Who to pick from the big three is the most pressing question for stage 12.
Fernando Gaviria (Quick Step-Floors) has two stage wins and leads the Points Classification too. He has looked to be the fastest sprinter in the race but hasn’t always taken the best positions in the last km of a number of stages. That arguably cost him a third win on stage 7. Gaviria was certainly moving the fastest at the finish line and is stage 12 joint-favourite at 2.75.
Caleb Ewan (Orica-Scott) grabbed his first win of the Giro on stage 7. After messing up a few of the earlier bunch sprints he and his team got the tricky run in right on that stage. I still think Gaviria looks the stronger of the two and am a little surprised Ewan is also at 2.75.
Andre Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) is the only other sprinter in the race with a win (stage 2). Since then he hasn’t quite timed his sprint right and has looked a little short of pace compared to Gaviria and Ewan. The bookmakers agree with me on this as Greipel is available at 4.50 for stage 12.
Sam Bennett (Bora Hansgrohe) was the surprise of the last sprinters stage (stage 7) finishing on the podium at decent double figure odds. Early in the race Bennett was suffering from illness but he looked fully recovered on stage 7 and gave Ewan and Gaviria a fright. With that improved result there is no value now in backing Bennett as he is at 5.25 for stage 12.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 12 – Outsiders
Giacomo Nizzolo (Trek-Segafredo) pulled out of the race before the start of stage 11 due to illness. This means the second tier of sprinters are a little threadbare!
Jakub Marezcko (Wilier Triestina-Sella Italia) is fifth favourite for the stage at 15.00. He has one decent result so far in the Giro with a 2nd place behind Gaviria. On stage 7 Marezcko was stupidly fast – the hope is he can repeat that ride. Aside from that result he has yet to crack the top 10.
Sacha Modolo (UAE Team Emirates) has flopped in the Giro. Modolo was decent on stage 1 finishing 5th but has gone backwards since not even being in position to contest a couple of bunch sprints. Odds of 23.0 aren’t tempting in the slightest.
Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Seagfredo) is possibly the best bet from this group at 34.0. As mentioned in previous stage previews Stuyven has never sprinted as well as he has in this race. The danger in backing him is that in spite of this speed he is still a way below the four favoured riders.
The only other sprinter to consider is Roberto Ferrari (UAE Team Emirates). Ferrari came here as the number two sprinter for UAE but he has consistently beaten the primary sprinter Modolo. Again, he is not quick enough to threaten the podium. His odds for stage 12 are at 41.0.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 12 – Tips
This is a simple stage preview and I expect stage 13 to be the same. One stage bet and one head-to-head bet for me.
WON – Back Fernando Gaviria to win stage 12 with a 3.5/10 stake at 2.50 with Bet365.
WON – Back Jakub Marezcko to beat Sacha Modolo with a 2.5/10 stake at 2.20 with Bet365.
Bet here:
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