Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 14 takes place on Saturday 20th May – and it looks like a ‘mini-Blockhaus’. The GC riders will be to the fore once more as the hunt for overall positions and bonus seconds resumes.
WOW – I have 5 stage wins from 5 now. This is my best streak in Grand Tours! Fernando Gaviria was sensational on stage 13 winning when he was miles back inside the final 400 metres.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 14 – Stage Profile
Stage 14 takes the riders from Castellania to Oropa and finishes atop a mountain. The stage is relatively short at 131kms. It is also fairly straight-forward for the first 120kms of the stage. The roads in this part fo the stage rise very gradually but there is nothing too technical or difficult.
Then it gets really tough – like the Blockhaus stage.
The finale is an 11km climb to Oropa. This is another category 1 climb. It averages 7% in gradient but features sections around 13% and towards the top has a number of sections above 9%.
To me this looks like a fast stage with a complete peloton reaching the foot of the Oropa climb as one group. Then the teams with GC aspirations will ride flat-out on the foot slopes of the climb to put race leader Tom Dumoulin and his team under pressure. Movistar have to attack here – there two GC riders need time on Dumoulin and the bonus seconds would help their cause.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 14 – Favourites
Nairo Quintana (Movistar) – has to start clawing back some of the time deficit on Dumoulin and stage 14 is a good starting point. Quintana showed he is the best climber in the race winning on Blockhaus. He will try to repeat that success here on stage 14. Now that Quintana’s team-mate Andrey Amador has moved into the top 6 – Movistar can use him to attack Dumoulin too. That will, they hope, deplete the Sunweb teams resources. I have to back the best climber, especially when he needs to gain time. Quintana is stage favourite at 3.25 and worth backing.
Tom Dumoulin (Sunweb) knows he can defend in stage 14. He really needs to (try to) follow Quintana whenever he attacks. Dumoulin has a decent lead already and will gain a lot more on the final stage – another ITT. His aim until then will be to attempt to limit his losses to Quintana. The way he rode on Blockhaus he has to be a contender to finish in the top 3 here too. In fact he may go for the stage win and bonus seconds! I am stunned he can be backed at 16.0 – I’m all over this EW.
Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) was second on the Blockhaus stage – the only proper mountain top finish so far. Like Quintana (and the rest fo the GC riders) he needs to gain lots of time on Dumoulin. Based on Blockhaus he looks like being a stage winning threat too. Pinot is 2nd favourite at 6.50. I prefer the race leader’s odds.
Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo) was 4th on the Blockhaus stage – surprising many by beating Nibali. Mollema looked good last Sunday and this climb may suit him a little better as it’s not quite as steep. He has EW value at 29.0.
Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain-Merida) struggled on Blockhaus dropping a minute on Quintana. Oropa should suit Nibali better than Blockhaus but will have to be careful. I don’t think he can stay with Quintana, Pinot or Dumoulin and fear he may lose a little more time here. The EW does work at 13.0 but I think he is riding for 4th at best.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 14 – Outsiders
This group contains the other GC riders plus some of the riders who crashed on the slopes of Blockhaus.
Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha) is 10th on GC heading into stage 14. Zakarin lost quite a lot of time on the Blockhaus stage but since then looks to have found some better form. His ITT was better than expected and he was decent in the stage Omar Fraile won. He will likely have a better chance at a stage win in week 3 and I’m not tempted at 67.0
Dominico Pozzovivo (AG2R) is 8th on GC without really doing too much. He is one of those riders who is always there or thereabouts but rarely wins anything. Odds of 67.0 look about right. Another one to avoid.
Bob Jungels (Quick Step-Floors) should go a little better on stage 14 than he did on Blockhaus. The gradient here suits him a little better but I think he will lose some time in the fight for the Young Rider classification. He could also drop from 7th on GC to 10th as those riders just behind him are better climbers. Odds of 126.0 do accurately reflect his chances.
Tanel Kangert (Astana) has flown under the radar a little in this race. He is 9th on GC and made it into the break with Amador on the stage won by Fraile. Kangert has developed into a solid Grand Tour rider – one who is strong in all facets. What he does lack is that elite climbing ability. That means I cannot back him on a stage like this even at 101.0 with a small speculative bet.
Adam Yates (Orica-Scott) is still in the race for the Young Riders Jersey with Bob Jungels and Davide Formolo (Canondale-Drapac). Yates has some time to make up on the other two but he is the best climber of the three. He will be looking to reduce his deficit on stage 14 and in the third week of the race. I’m not sure yet if he can stick with the big five above on a slope like Oropa. We will find out how good his climbing legs are on Saturday. Until I know how good he is I won’t be backing him at 15.0 for this type of stage.
Formolo is still learning how to be a team leader on a Grand Tour. Like many he lost a decent amount of time on Blockhaus but he was respectable as this is elite company. For now I see him as a rider that should get a top 10 on the stage but not threaten to win.
A number of other riders do feature high up in the betting markets. I have a tough time seeing past the top group. Bonus seconds may determine the outcome of the race and the big guns won’t want to miss the chance to grab some of them on Saturday.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 14 – Tips
The Italian drought continues on stage 14.
Bet on Nairo Quintana to win stage 14 with a 3.0/10 stake at 3.25 with Bet365.
WON – Back Tom Dumoulin to win stage 14 with a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 16.0 with Bet365.
Bet here:
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