Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 15 is the final stage before the 3rd rest day of this years race. The stage is a tricky one. The terrain doesn’t really favour any type of rider. The GC riders will pay attention but I think a break has a strong chance of winning.
I don’t really know what to say but I’ve now tipped 6 stage wins in a row. Thank you Tom Dumoulin! Stage 14 was the one I’m most proud of – went against convention and still predicted the winner. You can read my preview of Saturday’s stage here:
Giro d’Italia Stage 14 Preview
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 15 – Stage Profile
Stage 15 is a tricky one to predict. It comes on the eve of the final rest day. The GC riders were full-bore on the finale climb on Saturday and won’t want to lose any time gained. The climbs towards the end of the stage will eliminate the sprinters so we should see a break come away with the stage win.
This is another longer stage at 199kms. The riders will race from Valdengo to Bergamo.
The first 149kms will be fairly easy for the riders. The roads undulate a little but there are no climbs. The next 21kms will be key to the stage. In this section are the two categorised climbs. The first is the category 2 Miragolo San Salvatore starting at 149kms. This is almost 10kms in length at about 7%. A short descent leads to the category 3 Selvino climb – 7kms at 6%.
A quick drop towards Bergamo is punctuated by a short steep little climb with 4kms to go. This is only 1.2kms in length but averages 8% with a 12% section near the top. From here the riders will descend to the finish line in Bergamo.
I feel there may be a race within the race situation here. Assuming the right riders are in the break they will be allowed to contest the win. The GC riders will want to cover the final climbing section at speed. The final little uncategorised climb inside the final 5kms may be a launching point for an attack by the break and the GC riders.
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Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 15 – Break Riders
Omar Fraile (Dimension Data) already has his stage win but lost his lead in the KOTM classification on Saturday. His win on stage 11 was arguably the most impressive performance of the race so far. Fraile needs KOTM points before the racing reaches the Dolomites next week to have any chance of winning overall. He is way down on GC so will be allowed a lot of freedom if he makes it into the break. Fraile is a very good sprinter (see stage 11) so would fancy his chances of the stage win if a small group goes to Bergamo together. This is also turning into a Giro where riders win multiple stages – I like Fraile to win again at 29.0!
Luis Leon Sanchez (Astana) has been in 3 breaks in the race so far and I expect to see him once more on Sunday. His team is still looking for their maiden stage win in the race and may see this as a good opportunity. Like Fraile he is far enough down on GC to be given leeway in a break. He is joint favourite at 10.0 with Rui Costa (UAE Team Emirates).
Pierre Rolland (Canondale Drapac) is another rider that has been in multiple breaks. So far he has not been able to make one stick. The team are now more than 2 years away from their last win at the elite level. There is huge pressure on the riders and they should be in the break on Sunday. His odds are okay for the EW at 29.0
Davide Villella is another rider from Canondale that could well feature on Sunday. He was born in this region of Italy so a win would break two bad streaks – one for the team and the other for Italian riders in this race. I will take Villella as a streak-breaker at 51.0.
Jan Polanc (UAE Team Emirates) is second to Fraile in the KOTM standings. The team have no real GC aspirations so winning a jersey would be a great result for them besides top of Polanc’s earlier stage win. This may be a stage that Polanc targets in his battle with Fraile. Odds of 81.0 offer EW value.
Bora-Hansgrohe try to get their riders in breaks every day and stage 15 should be no different. I will go with Jan Barta as my selection from their team for Sunday. He hasn’t featured as much as other riders in the team – so I hope he has fresher legs. No odds in the early market.
The four wildcard teams will all be looking to get riders into the break on Sunday. It is a bit of a lottery choosing which rider will be the chosen one for the break on any given stage. If my assumptions are correct and the riders above make the break the wildcard team riders have no chance of the stage win anyhow.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 15 – Others
I think a number of the bigger name teams will also try to get a rider into the break.
- Vasil Kiryienka (Team Sky) – weird choice but hear me out. The team needs stage wins after losing Gerraint Thomas to injury and all GC hopes through ‘the crash’. Kiryienka was close to a podium in the ITT – only for a crash to drop him to 5th. He has won a mountain-top finish in the Giro in 2011 on Sestriere and he rides well enough in the mountains to contend from a break. I love odds of 151.0;
- Silvan Dillier (BMC Racing) already has a stage win (6) in this race when he won on a lumpy stage not too dis-similar to this. Dillier is decent on these shorter climbs and would fancy his chances in a break. Dillier is also at 151.0;
- Tomasz Marczynski (Lotto Soudal) is over 30 minutes down on GC but is a decent enough climber from a small break group to be a threat in a stage like this and 151.0 has EW potential;
- Matteo Montaguti (AG2R La Modiale) – the Italian’s crave a stage win. Montaguti is also more than 30 minutes down on GC. He too has the climbing ability to win a stage like this if he can establish himself in a break. Odds of 34.0 tempt me;
- Enrico Battaglin (Lotto NL-Jumbo) – with their team leader now outside the top 10 on GC stage wins may become a priority. Battaglin is almost an hour down on GC and of course Italian. He has stages wins in the Giro in the past in 2013 and 2014. A third would look great on his palmares and 34.0 represents a nice EW shot!
I don’t think the GC riders will challenge for the stage win on Sunday. If and I think it is a big ‘IF’, the GC riders mark the break then the final little climb may be key to the stage result. It suits the explosive riders over the more powerful ones. If they can get some distance at the summit then they can easily win the stage as it’s all downhill from there. In that case look for a rider who is daring on the descents like Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain-Merida) or Andrey Amador (Movistar) to feature.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 15 – Tips
I would like to select 7 riders but that is greedy so I will cut it to 5. Watch one of the other two (Battaglin or Barta) to win now.
Back Omar Fraile top win stage 15 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 29.0 with Bet365.
Bet on Davide Villella to win stage 15 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 51.0 with Bet365.
Back Matteo Montaguti to win stage 15 with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 34.0 with Bet365.
Bet on Luis Leon Sanchez to win stage 15 a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 10.0 with Bet365.
And a pure folly on my part.
Back Vasil Kiryienka to win stage 15 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 151.0 with Bet365.
Bet here:
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