After the huge excitement on the queen stage of the race yesterday, Giro d’Italia Stage 15 returns to the Individual Time Trial (ITT). This ITT differs from the prologue and stage 9’s ITT in that it is straight up a mountain. Expect different riders to feature than in stages 1 and 9.
The Route
As we can see from the profile Stage 15 is a short stage – only 10.8kms in length. The route is essentially straight up the Alpe di Siusi with a proper mountain top finish.
The climb itself is 9km long an averages a tough 8.3%. There are some steeper sections to negotiate in the middle of the climb.
Stages 13 and 14 have finally opened gaps in the General Classification. The energy sapping ups and downs in the Dolomites has given us an insight into who can win this race. There are essentially three riders now in contention – the magnificent Steven Kruijswijk (the new Maglia Rosa), Esteban Chaves (my fifth stage winning tip of the race thus far) and Vincenzo Nibali who did well to limit his time losses in stage 14.
There won’t be large time losses in tomorrows stage amongst the GC riders as the stage is short and the fact it is uphill means there won’t be crashes as in last weekends ITT. The route should suit the climbing specialists more than the more powerful time-trial riders like of Primoz Roglic (winner of the stage 9 ITT). However, the ITT specialists target stages like this and try to preserve energy on the stages leading into their specialty.
Expect the crowds to be massive. Lets hope they don’t encroach too much on the road!
Likely winner of Giro d’Italia Stage 15
Stage 14 was epic – Movistar exploded, Nibali was dropped by Kruijswijk and Chaves, who mounted a late charge to catch a breakaway that had a 8:45 minutes lead with 45kms to go. Most of the riders, particularly the GC guys will be exhausted and looking forward to Monday’s rest day.
Alejandro Valverde and Andrey Amador simply didn’t have the legs to stay with their rivals – both losing over 3 minutes. Stage 14 actually might suit Valverde. He is a decent ITT rider and is explosive on shorter climbs – I just cannot see him challenging for the top 3 places. I also think Amador’s race is run and don’t see him being in contention for honours in stage 15.
Vincenzo Nibali admitted in an interview on the stage 14 finish line that he didn’t have the legs to go with Kruijswijk and Chaves when they counter-attacked. He looks a little short of his top form but again like Valverde, stage 15 shouldn’t be a problem for him. He too is a good ITT rider and he can climb. I don’t see him being far from the top of the timings in stage 15. Nibali will try to gain some of the time back that he lost into Arezzo yesterday. Nibali is favourite with the bookmakers at around 2.20 – this is too short a price for me to back.
Steven Kruijswijk is the revelation of the race. He responded to the best Nibali could offer, counter-attacked leaving Nibali trailing in his wake. That was the best I have ever seen him climb. He looked strong, powerful and maybe more importantly he was decisive. Only Chaves was able to match him and they deservedly got their rewards. Kruijswijk is not a great ITT rider but he has the best form of his life and will gain a little from wearing the Maglia Rosa. He is a good choice to win stage 15 at odds of around 5.00.
Esteban Chaves too, is in the best form of his career. He has not put a pedal wrong thus far and he climbs beautifully. His time-trial skills are not great – he lost a lot of time on stage 9 and I think a victory is beyond him. I was hoping the bookmakers were going to price him in the 7.00-8.00 range at that would have been a super EW price. As it is he is 3.75-5.00 so not much EW value.
Bob Jungels has dropped down the classification in the last two days. BUT he has been able to stick with the front group on the category one climbs and he is a great ITT rider. On one climb he can be very fast and it is possible that he has been saving some energy to focus on the this stage. He is priced at 17.0-21.0 and I think he is a super EW choice at that price.
I partially discounted Primoz Roglic above because I’ve never seen him ride an ITT on this type terrain but he should still crack the top 10. He has huge power and on a single climb could possibly go even higher. His price at 19.0-29.0 is an intriguing one as a small EW selection.
A number of other riders to consider include:
- Mikel Nieve – won stage 13 and has been climbing well;
- Kanstantsin Siutsou -in the break yesterday finishing 5th and a strong ITT rider;
- Ilnur Zakarin – he looked cooked yesterday dropping almost 3 minutes but he is a really good ITT rider and a strong climber too.
Giro d’Italia Stage 15 – Tips
PLACED – Back Steven Kruijswijk to win stage 15 for a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 5.00 with Skybet.
Back him here:
Back Bob Jungels to win stage 15 for a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 23.00 with Boylesports.
Back him here:
Back Primoz Roglic to win stage 15 for a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 29.00 with Boylesports.
Back him here:
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