The Giro d’Italia decamps from The Netherlands to Italy for Stage 4 on Tuesday 10th May. This stage will be slightly different to stages 2 and 3 as there are hills! However, there remains the strong possibility of a sprint finish in Praia a Mare.
The Route
Stage 4 starts in Catanzaro, deep in the south of Italy. The route heads west to the coast and then north along the western coast of the Calabria region.
The distance is a 10km increase on stages 2 and 3 with a round 200kms from start to finish. The first 120kms are relatively flat before the route takes on a hilly or rolling nature. There are two categorised climbs at 126kms (Bonifati) and at 150kms (San Pietro).
From the top of the second climb there remain number of smaller hills as the race heads towards the finish line. Assuming the sprinters get over the San Pietro climb in contact with the front of the peloton there is scope for a third consecutive bunch sprint.
Wind might be a factor in the outcome of the stage. As the route follows the coastline closely there is a possibility of onshore wind in the afternoon. If the wind speed gets up this might enable teams at the front of the race to split the peloton into a number of echelons.
Expect the main contenders teams to be close to the front of the race all day. Team Sky in particular excel in windy conditions – see the early stages in last years Tour de France where they were able to power Chris Froome away from many of his main challengers for the race.
The Contenders
Marcel Kittel now has the incredible record of starting 4 road stages in the Giro and winning all four. If this stage does come down to another sprint finish he will make it five for five. His current price with many bookies is 8.0 – this indicates clear uncertainty into how this stage will pan out. Kittel publicly stated during the mountainous Tour de Romandie that he is happy with his climbing. If this is the case then stage 4 shouldn’t pose too many problems. In that case his price is way too high!
Of the pre-race favourites Alejando Valverde has the shortest price at 25.0-34.0. Valverde can be a dangerous rider from a small elite group – but you can only really back him if you feel there will be splits in the bunch (wind or terrain) that drop all of the main sprinters.
Arnaud Demarre is an interesting possibility for Stage 4. He can get over short sharp climbs and in a bunch sprint without Kittel (assuming he is dropped) Demarre would be a decent EW bet at 12.0-17.0.
Of course, there could be a breakaway that gets to the finish line before the peloton. The bookmakers have priced the riders with this possibility in mind. You can expect the make-up of any breakaway in Stage 4 to heavily feature Italian riders now that the race is in Italy. The lure and adulation for winning on home soil will tempt a few Italian riders to attack.
Bets
Back the race leader Marcel Kittel to make it ‘3 for 3’ and ‘5 for 5’ at 8.0 for a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
