Giro d’Italia Stage 7 is a 211km rolling hill stage from Sulmona to Foligno. The main GC contenders will retreat into the peloton today and allow the sprinters teams to control the speed of the group.
The Route
As we can see with the Profile of todays stage it is similar to stage 5. There are three climbs including one at Valico della Sonna at the 170km mark. From there the run to the finish is downhill for 20kms and then flat into the finish line.
We can expect another breakaway today with the wildcard teams featuring.
I was overjoyed that yesterdays break was successful, not least because I tipped the winner Tim Wellens. I always enjoy a stage where the break wins the stage.
Today I think the sprinters teams will do enough to pull the breakaway back. Stage 8 tomorrow has a nasty climb close to the finish and Sunday is the first proper Time-trial.
Who will feature
In a sprint finish we have to talk about the Red Jersey leader Marcel Kittel first. He has two dominant stage wins but has also disappointed as I felt he would feature in stage 5 but was dropped with 5km to go. The terrain on stage 5 is not dis-similar to today although the final sprint is flat not uphill. The BIG question is can he get over the Valico della Sonna climb with 40km to go in the group. OR, if he is dropped at that point can Etixx-Quick-Step get him back into the front group? I’m not sure and feel his favourite status might not be warranted.
Can Andre Greipel make it three wins in a row for Omega Pharma-Lotto? He won stage 5 in ‘beast mode’ in the final sprint. I feel the terrain suits his riding style better than Kittel and at 6.0 is great value for today.
The remaining sprinters Viviani, DeMarre, Nizzolo, Modolo et all have featured in the top 10 even on the podium but they have been comfortably distanced in the final sprint by either Kittel or Greipel. I don’t see that changing today.
A General Classification Choice
I wanted to get a look at the first weeks racing before committing to the outright winner market. The transition from the three stages in The Netherlands and changes in terrain in the first 4 Italian stages had the potential to cause serious time gaps in the top ten. This has not happened but we have seen some indicators of who is riding well.
As expected the GC rider who appears to be on the best form is Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha). I have already tipped him in the mountains classification because in my view he is the second best climber in the world on form to Nairo Quintana. As Quintana does not feature in the Giro d’Italia I feel this creates all sorts of possibilities for Zakarin to succeed. He comfortably took time from Nibali, Valverde, Landa and the rest yesterday with the late surge on the mounatin top finish. The second time trial (Stage 15) is straight up a mountain so if he can limit his losses in the first time trial this Sunday I feel he is a strong contender to win, yes WIN, the Giro.
Bets
WON – Back Andre Greipel to win Stage 6 for a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 6.0 with Skybet.
Bet here:
Back Ilnur Zakarin to win the Giro d’Italia for a 2/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 12.0 with Coral.
Bet here:
