Giro d’Italia Stage 8 covers 186kms from yesterdays finishing point in Foligno to Arezzo. the pressure is on today after backing the stage winner the last two days!
The Route
Stage 8 is almost completely flat with the exception of two climbs. The category 3 climb at Sheggia (120kms) and the tougher category 2 at Alpe di Poti (167kms).
The course will have the familiar breakaway but I have a feeling that the main contenders for the overall race win will urge their teams forward to close it down. Stage 9 tomorrow is an individual time trial. Some of the Giro d’Italia GC riders will be fearful of losing time there, particularly to Tom Dumoulin. The last thing they will want is to also lose some time today.
The Alpe di Poti is 8.6km and averages 6.5%. Not really a tough climb except for one thing. There are gravel sections, which if it were to rain can be treacherous. The descent on the other side will be fast before the leaders approach a slight uphill to the finish line.
Who can win Stage 8?
So who will be in contention for stage victory? I feel there will be a hugely depleted peloton on the final climb itself. The GC teams will ride this at speed, seeing whether they can cause any of the top 10 contenders to struggle.
It is possible that the riders who broke away on stage 6 Dumoulin, Ilnur Zakarin and Domenico Pozzovivo might once more attack on the climb to see if they can distance Vincenzo Nibali, Mikel Landa and Alejandro Valverde. The end to stage 6 showed some cracks in those three riders form and I would like to see the ‘lesser’ names attack them. Of the 3 Pozzovivo is most likely to be able to be given the freedom to escape as he is not really a threat to win the race. He is currently priced at 125.0 – a super EW choice.
There are some interesting possibilities for today. It is possible that if the GC riders play more of a waiting game that the next tier of riders might be allowed to play on the Alpe di Poti . This group would include, Tim Wellens (Lotto for 4 in a row!), Moreno Moser (Canondale) and one of our EW shouts for today Gianluca Brambilla (Etixx-Quick-Step). Wellens has already won a mountain stage in the Giro, Moser won Strade Bianchi in 2015 on similar terrain and Brambilla was 3rd impressively this year at Strade.
If the GC men play ‘cat-and-mouse’ they might allow their second lieutenants to attack like Astana did with Jakob Fuglsang on Thursday. If this happens then expect Giovanni Visconti to be a player. He has a track record of Grant Tour stage wins and is super at a late escape. He is a decent EW shout at 41.0.
I have a feeling that Diego Ulissi will be closer marked today and any attacks he makes will be quickly countered. He is riding well and won’t be allowed his freedom.
It would be a fitting end in a great riders final season to win a Grand Tour stage. There has been a lot of talk that Fabian Cancellera (Trek) might give today a go but I think he might be focusing on the tussle with Dumoulin tomorrow more. If this stage were in the middle of next week, away from the time-trials I would rate his chances much higher.
Giro d’Italia Stage 8 – Bets
We’re backing Italian riders today.
WON – Back Gianluca Brambilla to win stage 8 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 26.0 with Skybet.
Back Giovanni Visconti to win stage 8 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 41.0 with Skybet.
Bet on both here:
Back Domenico Pozzovivo to win stage 8 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 126.0 with Paddypower.
Bet here:
