The third and final Ardennes Classics race of the 2017 season, Liège–Bastogne–Liège, takes place on Sunday 23rd April, 2017. This is the 103rd time the Liège–Bastogne–Liège race has been held.
Liège–Bastogne–Liège 2017 – The Course
Liège–Bastogne–Liège is 258kms in length. Like many of the One Day Classics races the first half is the easier. Only 1 of the 11 categorised climbs is included in the first 148kms.
This means a break will form early, probably including some riders from the wildcard teams.The favourites teams will allow the break some leeway but start the close down from about the halfway point.
The final two climbs are usually where the race is won. The Côte de La Roche-aux-Faucons with 19km to go (1.3km at 11%), the Côte de Saint-Nicolas with 6kms to go (1.2km at 8.6%) are key to the final outcome. Tiredness will affect the riders after 230kms of racing. The peloton will shrink as the front of the race will be full-bore at this point – riders will be shelled like peas! The race ends in Liège with an uncategorised climb that leads the riders to a 400 metre or so flat section into the finish line.
Liège–Bastogne–Liège 2017 – Recent History
The winners of the last six Liège–Bastogne–Liège races were:
- 2011 – Philippe Gilbert (BEL) – Omega Pharma-Lotto
- 2012 – Maxim Iglinsky (KAZ) – Astana
- 2013 – Daniel Martin (IRE) – Garmin-Sharp
- 2014 – Simon Gerrans (AUS) – Orice-GreenEDGE
- 2015 – Alejandro Valverde (ESP) – Movistar
- 2016 – Wout Poels (NED) – Team Sky
Liège–Bastogne–Liège 2017 – The Favourites
Like La Fleche Wallonie the riders that win here have the ability to ‘punch’ on the short sharp climbs that dot the race route. As we would expect the betting market is filled with riders that fit this brief.
It is led by Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) the winner here in 2006, 2008 and 2015 at 3.25. He was favourite to win Amstel Gold Race last Sunday and La Fleche Wallonie on Wednesday too. Valverde was unable to go with the Philippe Gilbert/Sergio Henao led break in the former and that surprised many given his exceptional results in 2017 so far. I actually don’t like Valverde’s chances in this race. There is usually a lot of attacking and counter-attacking in the last 12-15kms of this race. In the 2016 race one of those counter-attacks stuck and Poels won Team Sky’s first Monument from a small group. A lot of riders will mark Valverde in those final kms of the race and I have a gut feeling he will miss the key moment.
Dan Martin (Quick-Step Floors) is equal second favourite at 7.0. Martin won here in 2013 and could have won again in 2014 if not for a slip on a drain cover whilst leading inside the final 300 metres. Martin has had a quiet (for him) 2017 so far but the last two Ardennes Classics races suit him perfectly.
Michal Kwiatkowski (Team Sky) joins Martin on odds of 7.0. He has two major wins in 2017 – Strade-Bianche and Milan-San Remo plus a second place in Amstel Gold Race. I am a little surprised he is available at odds as high as 7.0. Kwiatkowski has probably been the best rider overall in the ‘punchers’ classics in 2017 and worth a punt here.
Sergio Henao (Team Sky) can be backed at 21.0 for the race on Sunday. He instigated the late move in Amstel Gold Race finishing 6th from the small escape group. He is a great foil to Kwiatkowski for Liège–Bastogne–Liège. Team Sky can use each as a one-two punch – attack and counter-attack. Henao has the speed and climbing abilty to escape ala Poels in 2016. If Kwiatkowski is as expected marked closely then Henao could win in Liege.
Rui Costa (UAE Team Emirates) has a pedigree in this race with 3rd (2016) and 4th (2015) placed finishes. His odds of 19.0 look great in the EW market. Costa produced his best results in 2017 in February but this is a race he enjoys. The terrain suits him well especially the back-loading of the climbing sections.
Adam Yates (34.0), Simon Yates (34.0), Michael Albasini (23.0) and Roman Kreuziger (67.0) form a four-pronged attack for their team (Orica-Scott). Of the four I feel Kreuziger is the real outsider. I don’t think he has the speed to get clear on the final climbs. Albasini annually tends to get one or two results in the Ardennes Classics. He finished 3rd last Sunday at Amstel Gold Race and was runner-up in this race in 2016. An EW bet could provide huge dividends again. I like one of the Yates brothers here and one of them overall in the Giro d’Italia but you’ll have to wait for my thoughts on that race.
NOTE – This preview has gone live with 40kms of La Fleche Wallonie remaining – this explains why I have not included results from hat race in this preview.
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Liège–Bastogne–Liège 2017 – Outsiders
I will start this section with two time-trial specialists that I feel could surprise. Tom Dumoulin (Sunweb) at odds of 19.0 is firmly amongst the favourites. He had a strong Strade-Bianche where he finished 5th. Of the One Day Classic ridden so far the stage profile of that race probably most closely emulates Liège–Bastogne–Liège. Dumoulin therefore should be in contention until late in the day’s racing. My one concern is he isn’t quite explosive enough on the run-in tot he line.
Bob Jungels (Quick-Step Floors) looks very reasonably priced at odds of 81.0. Jungels chased back to the second group in Amstel Gold Race last Sunday. He was then able to sit-in as he had a team-mate in the front group. Jungel’s showed immense power to make his way up to the Valverde group in that race and he is an under-the-radar selection here. To win he would need to escape from the front of the race in a small group. As he is not a ‘favourite’ he will not be a marked rider so there is some EW potential at this price.
Rigoberto Uran (Canondale) is a rider that in my view is way over-rated. He is a solid top 10-15 type of Grand Tour rider when in his best form. Too often he goes missing. I am stunned he is available here at 26.0. That is way, way too short.
Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing) finally looked tired in Amstel Gold Race. Neither he nor Valverde had the power to close a small gap on the Gilbert/Henao escape group. GVA has ridden most of the classics (and won a lot of them) but he looks like he needs a break. Odds of 34.0 are the highest I’ve seen for GVA so far in 2017 so there is EW potential especially with 4 places available. Not for me though.
Six other riders in the race have some potential to surprise. They include:
- Diego Ulissi (UAE Team Emirates) at 41.0. Ulissi has won Giro d’Italia mountain stages so we know he can climb. His 2017 results are nowhere near those from 2016 so he might be given some leeway if he attacks late in the race.
- Enrico Gasparotto (Bahrain-Merida) at 41.0. His best result here was 3rd in 2012. Gasparotto’s best results have come in Amstel Gold Race but he crashed out of that race last Sunday. Like Ulissi his best chance would be in a break.
- Jarlinson Pantano (Trek-Segafredo) at 67.0. Pantano broke through in the 2016 Tour de France. He won stage 15 there and was in multiple attacks in the last week fo the race in the mountains. This got him a big money move to his current team where he has been Alberto Contador’s super-climbing domestique so far. He has a big engine and he can climb = EW potential.
- Chris Froome (Team Sky) at 67.0. Froome has a poor record in Classics races. This is something that surprises me because his Grand Tour stage results show he can tackle this sort of terrain with ease. Of course he has bigger ambitions and will use this race to sharpen his racing legs.
- Jon Izaguirre (Bahrain-Merida) looks overpriced at 81.0. Izaguirre made the front group last Sunday and finished 7th at Amstel Gold Race. The danger here, as in that race, is that he is not an explosive climber. He is better suited to high mountains at regular pace. These roads are not like that – so not for me.
- Michael Woods (Canondale) is a bigger outsider at 81.0. Wood’s is a climber with promise but has yet to get a decent result at elite level. He would need to be in a break that sticks to have a chance but looks a decent foil for Uran.
Liège–Bastogne–Liège 2017 – Tips
I have chosen one bookmaker because they are the only one offering 4 places. You can obtain bigger odds elsewhere but only for 3 places.
PLACED – Bet on Michal Kwiatkowski to win Liège–Bastogne–Liège with a 1.25/10 EW stake (1/4 odds top 4) at 7.0 with Skybet.
Back Rui Costa to win Liège–Bastogne–Liège with a 1.00/10 EW stake (1/4 odds top 4) at 15.0 with Skybet.
Bet on Jarlinson Pantano to win Liège–Bastogne–Liège with a 0.75/10 EW stake (1/4 odds top 4) at 67.0 with Skybet.
Back Simon Yates to win Liège–Bastogne–Liège with a 0.75/10 EW stake (1/4 odds top 4) at 34.0 with Skybet.
Bet here:
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