The third and final Ardennes Classics race, Liège–Bastogne–Liège, takes place on Sunday 24th April, 2016. This is the 102nd edition of Liège–Bastogne–Liège.
The Course
Liège–Bastogne–Liège has a course length of 253kms. The first half is the easier with 2 of the 10 categorised climbs. The final three of these climbs, the Côte de La Roche-aux-Faucons with 19km to go (1.3km at 11%), the Côte de Saint-Nicolas with 6kms to go (1.2km at 8.6%) and the Côte de la Rue Naniot with 2.5kms to go (0.6km at 10.5%) will massively reduce the peloton as the front of the race will be full bore at this point. The race ends in Liège with an uncategorised climb leading into the finish line.
Recent History
The winners of the last five editions of the Liège–Bastogne–Liège were:
- 2011 – Philippe Gilbert (BEL) – Omega Pharma-Lotto
- 2012 – Maxim Iglinsky (KAZ) – Astana
- 2013 – Daniel Martin (IRE) – Garmin-Sharp
- 2014 – Simon Gerrans (AUS) – Orice-GreenEDGE
- 2015 – Alejandro Valverde (ESP) – Movistar
Type of Riders suited to this race
Similar to the two previous Arsennes Classic races Liège–Bastogne–Liège suits the riders who are explosive on short steep climbs after the exertion of a 250km race. The recent winners all fit his brief.
Riders who will feature
This next section is practically a re-write of Fleche Wallone. The bookies odds for the top 4 or 5 riders are practically identical and I really don’t see an outsider winning.
The clear favourite
Alejandro Valverde (Movistar). He was the master of Fleche Wallone on Wednesday and has an incredible record here – 3 wins, 2 second places and a 3rd place. Again, like Wednesday he is a very strong favourite in the bookies pricing. He will be tough to beat, the Movistar team know how to position him to have the best opportunity to win this type of race. He will likely finish on the podium but his price to too short to back E/W.
The Main Challengers
The main challenge will come from the Etixx-Quick-Step duo Dan Martin and Julian Alaphilippe. They were the closet challengers to Valverde on Wednesday finishing 3rd and 2nd respectively.
Martin won here in 2013 and would have won in 2014 had he not crashed when leading with about 250 metres remaining. I tipped him on Wednesday and I am going to tip him again. The gradient of final slope makes it more of a power type of climb than the grind on Mur du Huy. This suits Martin and gives him a strong opportunity to beat Valverde.
The question is can he beat his teammate? Alaphilippe has 3 runner-up places in the last 5 Ardennes Classics races – twice second at Fleche Wallone and second here last year behind Valverde. It might be a case that Etixx use Martin and Alaphilippe to attack and then counter attack Valverde. This makes it tricky to know which one to back!
The Others
Simon Gerrans (Orica GreenEDGE) won here in 2014 following Martin’s crash. If he can get to the top of the final hill with a small group he will be a danger. I suspect he might be distanced by 20 metres or more on the climb and this will be enough to prevent him winning.
Vincenzo Nibali (Astana) can be dangerous in a race with this type of finish. He climbs exceptionally well but may lack the explosiveness to beat Valverde and the Etixx boys on the final climb.
It is nice to see Chris Froome (Team Sky) riding here. I wish he would race more of the Ardennes Classic races as he has the right skills to challenge for victory. If he can get to the final climb with the front group he could surprise. As he has raced so little this season it is hard to back him. The challenge from Team Sky will likely be from Michal Kwiatkowski, out tip for Amstel Gold Race. The weather affected him that day and the forecast on Sunday is for cold weather with rain = not ideal to back Kwiatkowski.
Liège–Bastogne–Liège Tips
Back Dan Martin him for a 2.0/10 E/W (1/4 of the odds for top 4) stake at 8.00 with Paddypower:
Place your bet here:
Back Julian Alaphilippe for a 1.5/10 stake at 11.00 E/W with Boylesports (1/4 odds for top 4).
Place your bet here:
