The 107th edition of Milan-San Remo takes place on Saturday 19th March 2016. It is also called “The Spring classic” or “La Classicissima“.
The Course
In terms of distance this is the longest of the ‘classic’ one day races in the season – 298kms. The race is usually a war of attrition because of the distance covered, the weather and the terrain. There is a mountain climb halfway through the stage and some small sharp climbs like the Poggio in the closing stages.
Recent History
The winners of the last five runnings of Milan-San Remo were:
- 2011 – Matthew Goss (AUS) – HTC-Highroad
- 2012 – Simon Gerrans (AUS) – GreenEDGE
- 2013 – Gerald Ciolek (GER) – MTn-Qhubeka
- 2014 – Alexander Kristoff (NOR) – Katusha
- 2015 – Jon Degenkolb (GER) – Giant Alpecin
Type of Riders suited to this race
The previous five winners of Milan-San Remo are strong-men sprinter types. In recent years the peloton has been whittled down into smaller groups. The Poggio and the late climbs are where the race action goes crazy. The climbers and explosive types of riders tend to attack here to try and drop the out-and-out sprinters. The sprinters teams try their utmost to keep their main men in contention. The roads are narrow, there are lots of twists and turns and it is exciting racing.
Riders who will feature
Alexander Kristoff is currently favourite and a winner 2 years ago. He is ideally suited to this type of tough racing. However, his form seems to be a little below last seasons. Plus, Team Katusha have made tactical errors in trying to closedown breakaways too late in some of the earlier season one day races.
Peter Sagan is second favourite – and he has a bit of ‘seconditis’ this season. We suggested he seems to be more of a stage racer this season would go well in Tirreno-Adriatico last week and were proved correct. He agonisingly finished in 2nd place, 1 second behind winner Greg van Avermaet. Sagan has the qualities needed to win this race.
Fabian Cancellera won here in 2008 and has great form already this season – winner of tough Strade-Bianchi. He is the powerhouse of all powerhouses in the peloton. He will be there or thereabouts at the end.
Ben Swift has the ability to stay with the leaders over the Poggio and then win a sprint finish from a smaller group. His cause would be aided, were riders like Kristoff and the elite sprinters like Bouhani and Cavendish to be dropped in the latter stages.
Greg van Avermaet has been sensational this season and clearly has the best form of any rider in the world right now. He has to be considered as a potential winner. Tirreno-Adriatico winners do not traditionally feature that highly in this race.
Gerraint Thomas, winner of Paris-Nice last weekend following a crazy final stage is another rider with the skill-set to win this race. I wonder whether the effort required to win a one week race may mean he rides more in support of Ben Swift.
Outsiders we think have a chance include:
Tim Wellens and Oscar Gatto – both climb well. Wellens is great at escaping from the peloton and will go well over the late climbs. Gatto is an emerging rider, his form is strong and he can be explosive on both climbs and in sprints = perfect for this race.
Tips
I’m going to back Peter Sagan to finish in the top 3. Back him for a 1.5/10 stake EW (due to his history of finishing 2nd) at 7.00 with Paddypower (1/4 the odds for first 3).
Place your bet here:
PLACED – My outsider tip number one is Ben Swift – back him with a 1/10 stake E/W at 41.0 with Coral (1/4 the odds for first 4).
Place your bet here:
My outsider tip number two is Oscar Gatto – back him with a 0.5/10 stake E/W at 151.0 with Paddypower (1/4 the odds for first 3).
Place your bet here:
