The 11th edition of Strade-Bianche one day race takes place in the Tuscany region of Italy this Saturday (4th March, 2017).
Strade-Bianche is a modern race starting in 2007. Strade-Bianche means ‘white streets’, a reference to the white gravel roads that are a defining feature of the race. More thana quarter of the races distance are raced over dirt roads.
Recent History
The winners of the last five editions of Strade Bianche were:
- 2012 – Fabian Cancellera (SUI) – Radioshack Nissan
- 2013 – Moreno Moser (ITA) – Cannondale
- 2014 – Michal Kwiatkowski (POL) – Omega Pharma-Quick-Step
- 2015 – Zdenek Stybar (CZE) – Etixx-Quick-Step
- 2016 – Fabian Cancellera (SUI) – Trek Segafredo
Many of the riders that feature in Strade Bianche will use this as a warm-up to race in the week long Tirreno-Adriatico (starts 8th March, 2017) and the prestigious, One Day Classic – Milan-San Remo (18th March, 2017).
The Route
Weather can play a key role in this race. The 2017 course features more dirt roads than in previous years. If it rains the 50kms of dirt road sections will cause havoc within the peloton. If there is rain you can expect there to be lots of groups strewn across the course.
Even if there is no rain, the bumpy nature of the course and the dirt road sections are perfect springboards for the stronger riders to launch an escape.
The route takes the riders over 176kms starting and finishing in the town of Siena. The route is undulating for its entirety. The two big climbs come in the first 60kms of the race – Passo del Rospatoio at 28.7kms and Montalcino at 57.2kms. From here onwards the roads go up and down and twist a lot. The roads are perfect for small groups to escape as they are narrow making it hard for the peloton to organise a solid concerted chase down.
I would be surprised if Strade Bianche as coming down to a bunch sprint finish. Rather, we would expect a smaller group of 12-15 riders to escape and fight it out for victory in the approaches to the uphill finish in Siena. The finale in Siena is on very narrow and steep roads. In some places the road is so narrow that it is impossible for riders to overtake.
Three of the last five winners have been the strong, powerful classics types of riders. Past winners with similar profiles also include Philippe Gilbert (2011). Three time winner Cancellera has now retired and Peter Sagan looks to be taking his place as the premier Classics rider.
The other two winners – Kwiatkowski and Moser are punchier riders – smaller but able to climb quickly on shorter, steep climbs. This means our betting preview must include both groups of riders!
The Favourites
The top two in the betting market are last weekends race winners – Peter Sagan (Bora Hansgrohe) and Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing). A little surprisingly considering their pedigree and recent results, neither has won this race. Looking at previous winners then you would think each of these riders should have the capability of winning in Siena this Saturday. In the early markets Sagan is 5/1 favourite with GVA just behind at 6/1. Each price opens up the EW possibilities. Of the two Sagan looks the better pick with a win and a runner-up spot last weekend. GVA might be slightly better up hill than Sagan but it wouldn’t surprise me if Sagan leads in the narrow streets in Siena and refuses to let any one past him.
Zdenek Stybar (Quick Step-Floors), the 2015 winner and runner-up in 2016 comes next at 7/1. He won here impressively that year and has to be a threat once more. He is a powerful rider that can be explosive on the shorter climbs that feature in Strade-Bianche. Again, the odds open up the EW bet but I actually like the chances of one of his team-mates a little more (see below).
Michal Kwiatkowski (Team Sky) won Strade-Bianche in 2014 and the world seemed to be at his feet. His high-profile move to Team Sky has failed to truly deliver on the early promise. However, Kwiatkowski is an explosive rider, one more than capable of being in contention for the podium on Saturday. To me 12/1 is a little on the light side given his results thus far in 2017.
Fabio Felline (Trek Segafredo) is also priced at 12/1 and I think he is a better bet than Kwiatkowski. Felline finished 4th in Omlopp Het Nieuwstad last Saturday. He earlier missed the decisive break that locked out the podium but he was able to easily pull away from the pursuing group in the finale to grab 4th at 50/1. The Tuscan terrain and Felline are an almost perfect match and 12/1 is great for an EW bet.
Others
Gianluca Brambilla (Quick Step-Floors) is my third choice to win on Saturday. He is a smaller rider than his team-mate Stybar but he is a more explosive climber. Last year he finished 3rd in this race so he is a ‘horse for the course’. The team can use him and Stybar as a 1-2 punch and there is great value in Brambilla at 33/1.
Nathan Haas (Dimension Data) had a decent start to the season in the Australian section of the calendar. He should go well on the undulating course on Saturday and looks tempting for a small EW bet at 33/1.
A group of bigger names feature towards the top of the betting market. They include:
- Primoz Roglic (Lotto NL-Jumbo) – 33/1;
- Sep Vanmarcke (Canondale Drapac) – 14/1;
- Roman Kreuziger (Orica Scott) – 33/1;
- Tom Domoulin (Team Sunweb) – 33/1;
- Tim Wellens (Lotto Soudal) – 21/1;
- Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain Merida) – 40/1;
- Fabio Aru and Moreno Moser (Astana) – 66/1 and 80/1;
- Diego Rosa (Team Sky) – 22/1.
Most of these riders have the ability to win if at 100% but I’ve not seen that from any of them yet this season. Dumoulin, Rosa and Wellens have had decent days but not managed to win thus far in 2017. Vanmarcke looks tainted as being the ‘nearly man’. He is always there or thereabouts but always seems to be in a small group at the finish with a faster man.
Strade-Bianche 2017 – Tips
It is Thursday afternoon at the time of my posting this preview. Only one bookmaker have odds available hence my selections below with them alone. I have other commitments that mean I need to post this now. You may find slightly better odds with other bookmakers on Friday if you look around.
Back Peter Sagan to win Strade-Bianche with a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 5/1 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Fabio Felline to win Strade-Bianche with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 12/1 with Paddy Power.
Back Gianluca Brambilla to win Strade-Bianche with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 33/1 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Nathan Haas to win Strade-Bianche with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 33/1 with Paddy Power.
Back them all here:
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