The Paris-Nice multi-stage road race has been running since 1933 (there were no races in the war years 1939-1945). The 74th race starts this Sunday (6th March, 2016) and runs for 8 days finishing in Nice the following Sunday (13th March, 2016).
Paris-Nice has a nickname ‘The Race to the Sun’, as the race runs from central France to the Mediterranean coast and the ‘sunshine’ in Nice.
Recent History
Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico (which we will also preview) are regarded as the first of the real tests of the UCI Cycling calendar for riders who are seeking success in the seasons Grand Tours.
The winners of the last five editions of Paris-Nice were:
- 2011 – Tony Martin (GER) – HTC-Highroad
- 2012 – Bradley Wiggins (GBR) – Team Sky
- 2013 – Richie Porte (AUS) – Team Sky
- 2014 – Carlos Betancur (COL) – Ag2r-La Mondial
- 2015 – Richie Porte (AUS) – Team Sky
As we can see this is a race Team Sky have dominated. Paris-Nice plays a key part in the team’s plans for the season, particularly for the Tour de France.
Types suited to the race
Of the last 5 winners, only one, Wiggins, has won a Grand Tour. If we stretch the results back a decade, Alberto Contador is the only other winner of the race (2007 & 2010) that has also won Grand Tours.
Stage one is usually a prologue time-trial, followed by 3 days with sprint finishes. It is from Thursday onwards, when the course becomes hilly and the mountains feature that the real contenders for the podium will emerge. The final stage, next Sunday is an uphill time-trial on Col d’Eze. Due to the nature of the course, many commentators call the race a mini ‘Tour de France’.
Generally, the winners of Paris-Nice, tend to be amongst the best riders from the strongest teams on the tour. They are elite riders, capable of producing great results in the mountains and in the time trials.
Riders who will feature
The obvious candidate and bookies favourite to win is Alberto Contador (Tinkoff). He is probably the best multi-stage rider of his generation and the course suits him perfectly, particularly the second half of the week.
Gerraint Thomas (Team Sky) tends to go well in the one week multi-stage races. He won the Volta ao Algarve this season. He is an all-rounder but I don’t see him matching Contador in the high mountains when Contador uses his quick accelerations.
Tony Gallopin (Lotto Soudal) is similar to Thomas in many ways – strong in every aspect of racing but lacking the elite level high mountain speed.
Tom Dumoulin (Giant Alpecin) was probably the breakthrough rider the season in 2015. A mountain-top win in the Vuelta, beating winner Chris Froome in a sprint, shows he is an emerging talent. Can he repeat 2015’s successes and build on them. I think he has a good chance of being on the podium here.
Richie Porte (BMC Racing) is going for a hat-trick of victories in 2016. He loves the course, but he is on a new team, and his 2015 season results from June onwards were not great. I think he will finish in the top 10 but threaten the top 3.
Rui Costa (Lampre-Merida), Sergio Henao (Team Sky), Romain Bardet (AG2R La Mondiale) and Rafal Majka (Tinkoff) can all climb. That’s the good news! None of them are great time-trial riders, plus Henao and Majka are riding in support of Thomas and Contador.
Of the outsiders I like Simon Yates (Orica Greenedge) – a British rider whose career is on an upwards trajectory and he can climb; and Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha) – he won the 2015 Tour de Romandie that features a similar type of course to Paris-Nice. I think it is a year to soon for Yates to feature in the top 5, but a top 10 result is possible. Zakarin is my outsider. He has decent form this season and the course is right for his style.
Tips
Alberto Contador will win the race barring accidents. Back him with a 3/10 stake at 4.50 with Paddypower.
Back him here:
Back Ilnur Zakarin as an outsider for the podium with a 1/10 stake E/W at 41.00 with Paddypower (pays 1/4 the odds for top 3 finish).
Back him here:
