The 4th stage of Paris-Nice 2017 pits the riders against the clock. The stage is the only time-trial of the race and in my view is too short at 14.5kms. Adding another 10kms+ would have the potential to widen the time gaps between the general contenders making the upcoming mountain stages more compelling viewing.
Paris-Nice Stage 4 – The Profile
Stage 4 starts in Beaujeu and finishes on Mont Brouilly some 14.5 kms later. This is a short time-trial by Grand Tour standards but it does come with a sting in the tail.
The first 11kms are fairly easy on the riders. There is moderate ascent and descent but nothing too taxing, The power-riders will love this section.
The final 3kms are where the time gaps will be generated in the GC battle. Mont Brouilly is a category 2 climb that is 3kms in length at 7.7%. At this point of the race this is the toughest climb the riders have to tackle.
If I could select riders from the entire UCI professional circuit there are two that I would really fancy backing on this course. Neither one is present here – triple Tour de France champion Chris Froome and Tom Dumoulin.
Paris-Nice Stage 4 – The Favourites
GRRR – I had the next two sections all typed out then lost everything. I will add an abridged version.
Richie Porte (BMC Racing) is stage favourite at 3.50. He should do well here based on his career record. My concern is how much energy he lost trying to chase back to the front group on stages 2 & 3? Not for me.
Alberto Contador (Trek Segafredo) needs to make up some time on some of his GC rivals. He is an accomplished TT rider and we all know he can climb. Contador has to put in a big performance on Wednesday and he will challenge for the win. I’m not convinced he will win however and his odds aren’t the best for an EW bet.
Jon Izaguirre (Bahrain-Merida) is another rider with the ability to do well in stage 4. He climbs very well and has a decent TT history. A slight concern – he crashed at high-speed in a similar type of profile to this in his last TT race. 5.50 seems a little short.
Julian Alaphilippe (Quick-Step Floors) is 3rd favourite at 5.0. Alaphilippe is in the driving seat in the GC battle with all of his rivals behind him. He had one spectacular TT result on a mountain time trial early in 2016. I’m not convinced he can get on the podium but I feel a top 5 will be a decent result.
Tony Martin (Katusha Alpecin) has been the worlds best TT rider in his career. Flat courses suit him better but he has the power to tackle this climb on Wednesday. Odds of 10.0 may be a little short but they hold some EW value.
Ilner Zakarin (Katusha Alpecin) is my race favourite as things stand. He will gain time on the upcoming mountain stages. He might need too if he repeats the calamitous Giro d’Italia TT result of last year.There in bad weather he fell multiple times. Thankfully, this course is shorter and he should gain time on the climb. Odds of 10.0 look appealing.
Paris-Nice Stage 4 – The Outsiders
I like two rider with long odds.
Steven Kruijswijk (Lotto Soudal) can be backed at 151.0. That is a crazy price for a rider that finished 2nd in last years mountain TT in the Giro d’Italia. Kruijswijk is a powerful rider that is rare in that he is a top-level climber too. I still can’t believe those odds – 151.0!
Dan Martin (Quick-Step Floors) sits 9th on GC in this race. He has been a bit under the radar as team-mates Julian Alaphilippe, Philippe Gilbert and Marcel Kittel garner all the headlines. Martin can climb explosively and whilst he has never been a great TT rider he is certainly better than his odds of 301.0 suggest! He is in contention for the overall win here so knows a strong TT is required.
Paris-Nice Stage 4 – Tips
I’m backing the underdogs with small stakes – I like the high reward they offer.
Bet on Steven Kruijswijk to win stage 4 with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 151.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Dan Martin to win stage 4 with a 0.50/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 301.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on both here:
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