Stage 1 of the Tour de France 2017 takes place on Saturday 1st July in Dusseldorf, Germany. This is the first of 21 stages over the next 3+ weeks. As has become tradition stage 1 is a race against the clock with an Individual Time Trial (ITT) through the city streets.
When the TDF starts overseas, the local riders usually face a lot of pressure to go for the stage win. This years opening stage has a home favourite who is expected to challenge for the win and to be the first Yellow Jersey holder of the 2017 race.
Tour de France 2017 – Stage 1 – The Route
Stage 1 is essentially a long Prologue as opposed to a full ITT. The stage is only 14kms in length and as we can see from the profile it is essentially a flat course.
The terrain definitely favours the classic ITT type of riders. They are strong powerful men who can be explosive over shorter distances.
I don’t think the main GC riders will lose too much time on the stage. The big two – Froome and Porte will be in or close to the top 10. There are a couple of riders who I feel are able to throw up a surprise on the stage.
The real prize for the stage winner will be the awarding of the Yellow Jersey. There is a chance the winner on Saturday will hold the Maillot Jaune for the first time in their career.
Tour de France 2017 – Stage 1 – Favourites
Tony Martin (Katusha) the home rider is now stage favourite with Rohan Dennis not being included in the BMC Racing team. Martin is the current World Champion in the ITT and 4 time winner of that accolade overall. Martin has the best ITT results of any rider in the race and will be looking to add to his three days in Yellow from the 2015 race. The best price I find for Martin is 3.50 – that is effective as a Win Only bet. His 2017 road results haven’t been brilliant. He did recently win the German National ITT crown so he looks to be going well against the clock.
Primoz Roglic (Lotto NL-Jumbo) won the first ITT at the 2016 Giro which was his big breakthrough at world level. He has two ITT wins this season one each at the Tour of the Basque Country and Tour de Romandie. In each of those he beat really strong fields and looks to be a real threat to Martin on Saturday. The thing that has really impressed me about Roglic this season is that he has become more or a GC threat, especially in week-long races. His climbing has improved a lot as his transition from ski-jumping continues. As it stands Roglic is second favourite at 3.75 – again this is a Win Only option.
Jos Van Emden (Lotto NL-Jumbo) grabbed the first win of his professional career at the top world level on the final stage of this years Giro. There he won the ITT beating arguably the world’s best ITT rider Tom Dumoulin (not racing in the TDF). He will be looking to make it two riders from the Lotto NL-Jumbo team on the podium in Dusseldorf. He is the first rider with odds that I really like – as high as 6.0. Van Emden has two advantages on those mentioned above – no home media pressure (Martin) and no GC aspirations and pressure (Roglic). He will also be full of confidence following his stage win at the Giro.
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Tour de France 2017 – Stage 1 – The Rest
Stefan Kung (BMC Racing) will head the BMC charge in the absence of Rohan Dennis. Kung is a young rider who is an ITT specialist. His 2017 results have been impressive with two ITT stage wins including one at Tirreno-Adriatico plus a road stage win at the Tour de Romandie. He is the one rider who I feel could really upset the favourites and at 7.0 has EW value too.
Jonathan Castroviejo (Movistar) is next in the betting market at 21.0. He does have a decent ITT pedigree but he tends to produce his best results on longer rolling courses. He did recently win the Spanish National ITT crown so is in good form against the clock. At these odds the EW works but I feel he lacks the explosive power needed to win the stage.
In fact Castroviejo may be upstaged by his younger team-mate – Jasha Sütterlin. Sütterlin finished runner-up to Martin in the German ITT Nationals recently. His under-23 ITT record indicates he is the heir-apparent to Martin amongst the younger German professional cyclists. I think a podium may just be out of reach but he seems a little overpriced at 26.0.
Stephen Cummings (Dimension Data) recently returned from a horror crash earlier in the season to win the British National ITT crown. He looked impressive there and this bodes well for one of his trademark Cummings attacks later in the race. I feel the field here is a little too good for Cummings to crash the podium. Odds of 34.0 look to be about right.
Richie Porte (BMC Racing) has looked fantastic for most of the season and won the ITT at the recent Dauphine beating a number of the names mentioned here. That course was longer and hillier than this one but his form suggests he won’t be too far away at the finish line. I won’t back him at 34.0 but think he will be inside the top 10.
Chris Froome (Team Sky) could do with a strong result on Saturday as a confidence boost for the Tour. He was a little under-par at the Dauphine finishing outside the top 5 in the ITT. He is better suited than Porte to this type of power course and a top 10 should be achievable. I think he is a little overpriced at 51.0.
Michal Kwiatkowski (Team Sky) is having the best season of his career. He was incredible during Classics Season with multiple wins. He was also fantastic at the Dauphine in a mountain team role for Froome. Kwiatkowski followed this up by winning the Polish National ITT race. I’m not convinced he can beat the favourites here but he is a solid top 6-8 threat on the stage. You could do worse than his 26.0.
Vasil Kiryienka (Team Sky) is the third Sky rider to mention in this preview. He won the World ITT title in 2015 and was second in 2016 so he knows how to ride versus the clock. Kiryienka is a powerful man that pushes really big gears. The course is a match and he showed decent ITT form at the Giro. My one concern is this may be on the short side for him to get that big gear rolling. Odds of 41.0 don’t interest me.
Tour de France 2017 – Stage 1 – Outsiders
I like a left-field selections that I think has the potential to cause an upset.
The first of these is Fabio Felline (Trek Segafredo). Felline just finished runner-up at the Italian ITT National’s and won the opening Prologue at the Tour de Romandie. At the latter he also finished an impressive 4th overall. Felline looked super at times during the classics season but never quite managed to get the result his riding deserved. The win at Tour de Romandie was really impressive on a tricky prologue course. He showed power and explosiveness on that course and I think this bodes well for Dusseldorf. He is as high as 111.0 here and that looks about double what I expected. Felline is worth a small EW bet at those odds.
Also don’t overlook a couple of the sprinters. Marcel Kittel (Quick Step-Floors) and Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe) can on their day put in a mean ITT especially over shorter distances. A decent result in the prologue will enable them to attack the maillot jaune on the sprint stages (with bonus seconds) that follow the prologue. Kittel can be backed at 81.0 and Sagan at 151.0 – big odds indeed.
Tour de France 2017 – Stage 1 – Tips
Bet on Jos Van Emden to win Stage 1 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 6.0 with Skybet.
Bet here:
PLACED 2ND – Back Stefan Kung to win Stage 1 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 7.0 with Bet365.
Bet on Fabio Felline to win Stage 1 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 101.0 with Bet365.
Back them here:
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