Tour de France 2017 Stage 12 takes place on Thursday 13th July. Thankfully, we might see some proper racing as the Tour returns to the mountains – this time in the Pyrenees.
This is a long read. I feel it is a key stage in the Yellow Jersey battle hence the detail.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 12 – Profile
Stage 12 is almost a carbon copy to stage 8 in terms of profile. This is going to be a tough day of 214.5 kms form Pau to Peyragudes.
The stage contains 6 climbs and they get tougher the closer the riders get to the finish in Peyragudes.
The first 90 kms of the stage is fairly easy with the Intermediate Sprint at 90 kms the point where the roads get steeper. At 64 kms the riders peak the only categorised climb in the first 100 kms. This is the category 4 Cote de Capven. The stage begins proper for the GC riders at the foot of the second climb – the category 2 Col des Ares at 111.5kms. From here the stage is up and down to the line.
The climbs in the second half of the stage are:
- Col de Menté (1, 349 m) at 139.5 kms – 6.9 km long at 8.1% – category 1
- Port de Balès (1,755 m) at 184 kms – 11.7 km long at 7.7% – category H
- Col de Peyresourde (1,569 m) at 209.5 kms – 9.7 km long at 7.8% – category 1
- PEYRAGUDES (1,580 m) at 214.5 kms – 2.4 km long at 8.4% – category 2
The intitial category 1 climb – Col de Mente shouldn’t pose too many problems for the GC riders. I think it is the category H Port de Bales where the GC teams need to attack race leader Chris Froome. Once the Port de Bales is peaked a fast descent takes the riders to the base of the Col de Peyresourde. This is tough at 7.8% average gradient and I think the likes of Astana and AG2R La Mondiale would love to reduce Froome’s support riders before it starts. Regardless, they must attack Froome on this climb if they wish to see if they can take the Maillot Jaune away from him.
At the top of the Col de Peyresourde a short descent and the riders climb the Peyragudes climb (category 2 at 8.4%) to the finish line. Froome will want to be with the GC rivals as they head onto this climb – his rivals will want to be in front. This final climb is only 2.4kms but with 212 kms already in the riders legs I can see riders gaining time e.g. 20 seconds, in this section alone.
There is a chance that the GC teams will allow a break to take the stage. This would be in Team Sky’s interests as it means the bonus seconds will be gone before the GC riders reach the line. With the top of the GC being so tight this helps Froome more than the others. The likelihood of the break succeeding depends on who is in it – they must be way down on GC.
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Tour de France 2017 Stage 12 – Favourites (GC Riders)
This includes the top 5 in GC and 5 of the 6 that were in the sprint for stage 9 honours.
Chris Froome (Team Sky) loves to win stages in the Tour. He is searching for his first in this race (and first win of the season). I think he is the best rider in the race and will go all in for the win on Thursday. Gaining time on the road plus the 10 bonus seconds would consolidate his position as race leader. He is 2nd favourite at 6.0 and that’s definitely backable.
Fabio Aru (Astana) starts the stage as favourite at 5.50. I think this is the stage where he gets found out. Aru really struggled at the top of the final climb on Sunday’s mountainous stage. I feel if that stage had ended on that mountain, rather than 30 kms away in the valley, then Froome would have pushed on and Aru been dropped. Not for me.
Romain Bardet (AG2R la Mondiale) does interest me at odds in the 12.0 range. The EW works beautifully at those odds. Bardet looked good throughout stage 9, the previous mountain stage, and I feel he is in for a podium place come Paris and he might match last years 2nd place. His team is battling Sky for the team prize and I feel he will be well supported on stage 12.
Rigoberto Uran (Canondale-Drapac) is the big surprise in this years race. His win on Sunday was spectacular! The form he is showing is unprecedented – he has not been at this level for about 4 years. Was Sunday his real level in the race or was it a one-off? I’m going with the latter. Avoid at 19.0.
Jacob Fuglsang (Astana) won the Dauphine and was able to stay with the front group on Sunday. He is a little down time wise on GC but should Aru falter then Fuglsang will ride for himself. Astana are expected to try to attack Froome with one-two punches throughout. Odds of 15.0 represent better value to me than Aru’s 5.50.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 12 – Outsiders and Breakaway Threats
GC Riders
If the GC riders contest the stage then I think it is between the riders mentioned above. The only others who have any sort of chance in this sort of scenario are:
Dan Martin (Quick Step-Floors) – the one concern is how well he has really recovered from the crash involving Porte on Sunday. He is capable of being in the front group at the finish and probably has the best sprint on this type of final climb. Odds at 15.0 have awesome EW value.
Simon Yates (Orica-Scott) can be backed at 34.0 for the stage. He was dropped on stage 9 and I don;t think he can quite match the top riders over those final three climbs.
Nairo Quintana (Movistar) has been a big disappointment once more in this years race. When the going has been tough Quintana has lost time. I cannot see that changing on Thursday – 12.0 looks way too short.
Breakaway Riders
I would have said this was one for Rafal Majka but he retired before yesterday’s stage due to injuries. So I will select a few riders who can climb well enough and are way down on GC.
Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) – the team were decimated when 3 riders minded Arnaud Demare on stage 9. Now they are a team of 5 riders. Pinot stated pre-race that he wanted to win the KOTM Jersey – this is the stage for him to go and rack up big points. Odds of 17.0 have EW value.
Warren Barguil (Sunweb) was agonisingly close to winning stage 9. He leads the KOTM classification by a heathy margin and I think he will try to maintain this lead all the way to Paris. Barguil is 14 minutes down on GC so will be given some leeway were he to get into the days break. The bookies like his chances too with odds at 19.0.
Daniel Navarro (Cofidis) may now be the teams best hope of a stage win with Nacer Bouhanni not delivering in the sprints. Navarro can climb and is 22 minutes down on GC = perfect combo to be succesful from a break. Odds at 51.0 have EW potential.
Jarlinson Pantano (Trek-Segafredo) was signed by the team to be Alberto Contador’s mountain number 2. Contador is out of the reckoning for the race win so Pantano may be given his freedom to attack. He can be backed at 81.0 and remember he won a similar stage in last years race.
Esteban Chaves (Orica-Scott) was co-leader of the Orica team pre-race but he has been poor. The team have Simon Yates at 6th overall so Chaves may be held back from a break to support Yates. On his best form Chaves would be a great rider to back in a break. Odds of 34.0 look a little light to me.
Lilian Calmejane (Direct Energie) won stage 8 – the stage with a profile similar to Thursday’s stage. Calmejane could be a KOTM challenger as he racked up some decent points on stage 8. My fear is this is much tougher than stage 8 in terms of kms to be climbed. Again, like Chaves his odds look too short at 34.0
Pierre Rolland (Canondale-Drapac) has been very quiet so far and not been in a break. On paper this looks perfect for one of his long-range attacks. However, surprisingly they have Uran in the top 5 so the team may focus on the GC battle. I wish he were a little higher than 34.0.
Diego Ulissi and John Darwin Atapuma (UAE Team Emirates) was expected to be a challenger for a top 10 place. Instead he sits in 70th place over 54 minutes behind Froome. Ulissi can climb and the team need a win. Atapuma is even further down on GC than Ulissi. He too has been anonymous in this race which is surprising given his Giro results in 2016. Ulissi at 201.0 looks like super value. Atapuma is lower at 151.0. Each have EW value.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 12 – Tips
I’m going with 5 riders for the stage win – I would have liked to tip Barguil as well but feel 6 is one too many.
Bet on Chris Froome to win stage 12 with a 1.0/10 stake EW at 6.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Thibaut Pinot to win stage 12 with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 17.0 with Paddy Power.
WON – Bet on Romain Bardet to win stage 12 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 12.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Diego Ulissi to win stage 12 with a 0.50/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 201.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Dan Martin to win stage 12 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 17.0 with Paddy Power.
Back them here:
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Im sorry to ask, but was does it means that EW value thing you are always talking about?
I love your previews by the way?
Hi Evert,
Thank you for the kind words.
EW = Each Way. That means if the rider finishes in the top 3 places (or sometimes 4 places depending on the bookmaker) then we also get some money back on the bet should the rider finish in those positions.
Martin