Tour de France 2017 Stage 14 on Saturday 15th July sees the race reach its 2/3 point. This stage looks like one for the breakaway.
I was right about Mikel Landa being way overpriced on stage 13! Well done to Warren Barguil winning on Bastille Day.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 14 – Profile
The 14th stage sees the riders racing over 181.5 kms from Blagnac to Rodez.
As we can see from the terrain this is much easier than stages 12 and 13. There is some climbing but nothing is above a category 3 level.
The stage is fairly benign for the first 80kms. The Intermediate Sprint comes early at 55.5 kms on roads that are fairly flat. It is from the 80 km marker that the roads start to gradually rise until 10 kms from the end of the stage.
The two climbs are both category 3’s. The first comes at 131 kms – the Cote du viaduc du Viaur. This is 2.3 kms in length but averages 7%. Weirdly the roads continue to rise at the top of this climb. The second climb – Cite de Centres is peaked at 145kms. This too is short at 2.3kms but it is steeper averaging 7.7%. Again the roads continue to climb from its peak.
The final run in to Rodez is on a 10 km long descent. I expect this to be very fast. The final 500 metres of the stage is uphill at 9.6%. I think this eliminates all of the sprinters bar one from victory.
In terms of what may happen on the stage. I think the two category 3 climbs and gradual ascent from 80 kms o 166 kms might be too much for the sprinters. The GC riders will be watchful but they will be knackered after stages 12 and 13. If the right riders get in to a break I think it has a high chance of sticking. The terrain is not too dis-similar to some of the classics races so I feel the likes of Greg Van Avermaet will be targeting the stage.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 14 – Favourites
I will look at some of the sprinters, break specialists, classics riders and riders from teams looking for something positive from the Tour.
Michael Matthews (Sunweb) – this has to be the stage he has the best chance of winning. With Sagan and Demare out of the race Matthews alone is the pure sprinter that can get over this type of incline. He was close earlier in the race on a similar finish but lost out to Sagan. His team won yesterday and would love to make it two days in a row. He starts as second favourite at 6.00.
The only other sprinter that has any sort of chance is John Degenkolb (Trek-Segafredo). On his best form he may be in with a shout but I fear those days are nehind him. However, I think he could be found out on that final climb to the line. Odds of 15.0 look a little short to me.
Thomas de Gendt and Tim Wellens (Lotto Soudal) – the team really needs a stage win with Andre Greipel failing thus far in the sprints. Both have been in breaks with de Gendt putting in a huge effort on stage 12. I think each would be looking at stage 14 as a real possibility of a win. De Gendt is at 34.0 and Wellens at 23.0. I prefer Wellens of the two for stage 14.
Pierre Rolland (Canondale-Drapac) featured very briefly on stage 13 – the first time he has really gone off the front of the race this year. There are reports he has been suffering from bronchitis. That scares me enough to say he is unbackable even at 301.0!
Stephen Cummings (Dimension Data) came even closer than de Gendt to the stage win on Thursday. Cummings has returned well from a bad injury but I do question how much stage 12 took out of him. I expect his odds to be fairly high. Given the exertion on stage 12 odds at 51.0 look too short.
Lilian Calmejane and Thomas Voeckler (Direct Energie) – each tried to escape on stage 13 – Frenchmen trying to win on Bastille Day. Neither was succesful as the GC battle raged around them. Stage 14 looks to be a better option for each. They can both climb well enough in a break not to fear those two short sharp category 3’s on the route. Calmejane is as high as 151.0 and Voeckler is 126.0. I will take the former with a small EW bet because I think he can be a threat on the rise to the line.
Michael Albasini (Orica-Scott) has a decent record in the punchy classics races – including this season. The finale here looks great for him and I like his chances at 51.0 as a small EW bet.
Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing) has been very quiet so far in the Tour. That should change on stage 14 as the terrain looks ideal for his attacking style. GVA was excellent in the classics and of all the stages in the Tour this looks like the one he can win. The bookies make him stage favourite at 4.50 and I see no reason to dispute this.
Philippe Gilbert (Quick Step-Floors) was in the early break on Friday but dropped back quickly when the pace increased. Like GVA, stage 14 looks much better suited terrain wise for Gilbert’s riding style. Gilbert opens at 9.0 and I really do fancy him at those odds. He was sensational in the classics and the climb to the line is right up his street. He is my favourite for the stage win.
Fabio Felline (Trek-Segafredo) has performed a lot worse than I expected at the Tour. However, this suits him too. Felline is decent on the types of climbs that feature on stage 14 and from a break type of group he (and I) would fancy his chances in a sprint. Odds at 17.0 do offer some EW value but I’m not sure he can beat the other classics guys.
This section contains riders from teams who have yet to win a stage at the Tour. It has been hard to decide who to select from these teams so I have picked riders who haven’t really featured in breaks yet. I will just show their odds for you.
- Jay McCarthy (Bora-Hansgrohe) – odds 151.0;
- Jesus Herrada (Movistar) – odds 67.0;
- Romain Hardy (Team Fortuno-Oscaro) – odds 201.0;
- Yoann Ofredo (Wanty Groupe Gobert) – odds 301.0.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 14 – Tips
NOTE – I tend to use one bookmaker for most of my tips because they bring their odds to market first – sometimes before the current days stage starts. This means I’m able to get on riders before their odds shorten.
Back Philippe Gilbert to win stage 14 with a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 8.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Michael Albasini to win stage 14 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 51.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Lilian Calmejane to win stage 14 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 151.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Tim Wellens to win stage 14 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 23.0 with Paddy Power.
Back them all here: