UCI Cycling – Tour de France 2017 Stage 16 – Betting Preview

Tour de France 2017 Stage 16 on Tuesday opens the third and final week of racing at this years Tour. The Maillot Jaune is still very much up for grabs with 6 riders within 90 seconds of the lead.


Tour de France 2017 Stage 16 – Profile

Stage 16 is shorter than the last couple of days racing at 165 kms. It takes the riders from Le Puy-en-Velay to Romans-Sur-Isere in the Rhone Valley.

Previous stage finishes in the Rhona Valley have been bunch sprints. The terrain suggests this might be the case on Tuesday too.

Stage 16 is tricky for the first 65kms. This section includes the two categorised climbs of the day.

First up is the Cote de Boussoulet which starts at 16 kms. This is a category 3 climbs of 4.5 kms at 6.3%. Look for the break to form on this climb. From the peak the riders essentially stay on a plateau that culminates in the second categorised climb of the day. The Col du Rouvey is a category 4 – 2.8 kms at 5.6%. The summit marks the start of a downhill run of almost 50 kms! This will be super fast.

The final section from the 105 km mark to the line is a little lumpy but in terms of Tour terrain it is essentially fairly flat. This is where the print teams will look to bring back the break.


Tour de France 2017 Stage 16 – Profile

I’ll start with the top two in the Sprint Classification.

Marcel Kittel (Quick Step-Floors) still has a huge lead in the Green Jersey competition. He has been untouchable in bunch sprints – at least on those he has been in the right position to contest. What has impressed me most about Kittel in this race is that he has shown the best climbing of his career. There have been stages where he has stayed with the peloton for a large part of mountain stages. I think there is enough time on stage 16 for Kittel to ride the first climb carefully and re-catch the peloton if he is dropped. Odds as high as 3.0 for Kittel on an expected bunch sprint stage are unheard of!

Michael Matthews (Sunweb) has been super in the ‘hilly’ and some of the mountain stages of this race. Matthews is aiming to win the Green Jersey but faces an uphill battle. His Sunweb team may try to really push the pace of the peloton in the first 65 kms of stage 16. If they can distance Kittel then this increases Matthews chances of making the Intermediate Sprint at 121.5 kms before Kittel rejoins the front of the race. Of course, if they drop Kittel early there is a chance he doesn’t catch up again before the line. In terms of a stage win Matthews can be backed at 15.0. This has EW potential but can he beat all of the other sprinters – many of whom took the weekend easy when he didn’t?

Other Sprinters

Edvald Boasson-Hagen (Dimension Data) is second favourite for the stage at around 12.0. EBH has improved as the race has progressed and of the sprint group he is probably the second best after Matthews on this sort of terrain. He is certainly backable at those odds.

Dylan Groenewegen (Lotto NL-Jumbo) had his best results so far in the Tour towards the end of week 2. He can be backed as high as 19.0 for stage 16 and I think this has decent value too. His team is still looking for a stage win. I feel if something happens to keep Kittel from the front of the race then he is my stage favourite.

Alexander Kristoff (Katusha-Alpecin) is a sprinter/classics rider that should be okay in the first 65  kms of the stage. Kristoff has been a nearly man in this race in terms of just missing the podium. He has a number of 4th and 5th place finishes already and will want to go higher. I’m not convinced he can and won’t back him at 19.0.

Andre Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) is looking for his first stage win of the Tour. Greipel hasn’t looked at his sharpest – like a lot of the riders who also rode the Giro. He hasn’t really looked like winning a stage in the Tour so far and I think that will continue tomorrow. Odds around 19.0 look too short.


Tour de France 2017 Stage 16 – Others

The betting market is hedging its options a little as next come a group of classics/break riders.

Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing) is next in the betting market at 21.0. His team had 4 riders in the break on stage 15 but came up emtpy with Nicholas Roche top placed in 6th. The team would love a stage win after a couple of 2nd places and GVA seems like a logical choice. I’m not convinced the break will make it however so I’m not tempted to back him.

John Degenkolb (Trek-Segafredo) is also at 21.0. His team now have a stage win thanks to Bauke Mollema on Sunday. That takes some pressure off the team. For Degenkolb to win the stage I think all of the sprinters in the top group would need to be distanced. I just cannot see that happening. This is my way of saying I don’t think he can beat the pure sprinters on this stage!

Four riders can be backed at 41.0 – including Oliver Naesen (AG2R La Mondiale), Stephen Cummings (Dimension Data), Philippe Gilbert (Quick Step-Floors) and Thomas De Gendt (Lotto Soudal). Of the four I only really like Cummings and Gilbert. Naesen has his team leader smack in the middle of the Yellow Jersey battle. I feel the team will hold him back for the mountain stages on Wednesday and Thursday. De Gendt has already been in 6 breaks including stage 15. Surely he can’t have more energy left! Cummings may attack – he hasn’t since he was chased down by Sky towards the end of last week. Gilbert came 4th on stage 14 and would love a win. He is an option if and only if Kittel gets dropped.

A couple of the other sprinters are available at higher odds – Nacer Bouhanni (Cofidis) at 34.0 and Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain-Merida) at 51.0. You already know my thoughts on the former! Colbrelli could be an interesting pick. He was in the top 10 on the tricky finale to stage 14 and should do okay over the hillier part of stage 16. Might be worth an EW bet.

The other sprinters are at even higher odds:

  • Rudiger Selig (Bora-Hansgrohe) at 81.0;
  • Davide Cimolai (FDJ) at 51.0;
  • Ben Swift (UAE Team Emirates) at 67.0;
  • Dan McLay (Fortuno-Oscaro) at 81.0.

Of the 4 I feel Swift is the only one that could be in a break that succeeds. Were he to get in a break he would probably be the fastest in a sprint. The other three would only have a chance if Kittel were not present. However, if Kittel was dropped then I think Selig, Cimolai and Mclay would be with him rather than in the front group on the stage.


Tour de France 2017 Stage 16 – Tips

I think Kittel will win again. I also looked at the head-to-head market and there is nothing I like at decent odds.

Back Marcel Kittel to win stage 16 with a 3.0/10 stake at 3.0 with Betfair.

Bet on Dylan Groenewegen to win stage 16 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 19.0 with Betfair.

Back them both here:

 


 

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4 Comments on "UCI Cycling – Tour de France 2017 Stage 16 – Betting Preview"

  1. Hi Kev. I’m thinking of getting into online betting as I’ve been doing really well in predictions games, particularly cycling. I play Superbru, a South African run one, with over a million subscribers. Thanks to your advice I’m currently 22nd out of over 5000 players. I’m not naive enough to assume I’d be as good at the ‘real thing’ as most Superbrus don’t take it that seriously. I came 3rd globally in the Vuelta out of about 2.5k. I’m a management accountant/financial analyst by trade.

    Q1.Can one make a living from this or do you get capped stakes if you do too well, i.e. Over 5 figures per year? i saw a UK doco about an engineer who had this happen after winning 5k then 7k in a few months on Rugby MotM & Golf winner.

    Q2. This stage comes down to picking 4 riders on Superbru. 1 GC, 2 Sprinters & I Wild card, in 4 bands of 10 choices. I’ve initially gone Froome, Kittel, Van Avermaet, Cummings. But your preview makes me want to change GVA to Selig and maybe Kittel for Matthews, as Superbru strangely rewards Cat 3-HC climbs & inter sprints more than podiums. So risk v reward is complicated. Matthews seems a safe double hit, i.e. good or all inter sprint points plus possibly climb points, then OK finish points. Kittel may only get me podium points or none at all. I could change Cummings(willhe won’t he?) for Barguil(will go if De Gendt does?), Gilbert, De Gendt or even Calmejane. I fully understand your take is on value for money bets, and having watched all stages(I’m between jobs)cannot fault your logic. What would you do?

    Cheers & sorry to bother you if this email comes across as a bit irrelevant but your site could really help me and other ‘gamers’ thinking of taking the plunge. A quick reply would be appreciated for obvious reasons.

    • Hi Paul, apologies for the delay in replying. I’ve only just read your message.

      Q1. Yes you are likely to be limited if you are extremely successful although there are the exchanges (betfair, betdaq) where you wouldn’t be limited.

      Q2. Kittel will only get you podium points but he should win the race. Gilbert could be an option. He seems intent on a stage win. I wouldn’t think Barguil would go even if de Gendt does. There aren’t many mountain points up for grabs and Barguil’s lead in that is significant enough that he can rest ahead of the two Alps days.

  2. Thanks for the reply. I’ll go Kittel as the inter sprint is long after the climbs and he’ll catch up for it. He won’t leave it to chance to catch up any break nearer the end. He’s chasing records! Crosswinds could hamper a smallish break too, so bunch sprint finale. For Superbru purposes I need to hedge Cummings to break early and nick me inter sprint points, even if caught. He has to try, not many chances left, he gave it all to get fit in time. He might have some BMCs like GVA & Kung with him, so I’ll pick GVA too. Could get fiesty, like Froome v Sagan Stage 11 last year.

    • Hi Paul,

      My colleague Kevin answered your comments overnight – he tends to be the night owl whereas I’m a morning person.

      Thanks for your kind words re: previews. I’m glad to have been able to help!

      We’re happy to advise re: online betting. We have links to a lot of bookmakers too.

      Have you tried Zweeler? They offer a bunch of fantasy sports games including a lot of cycling ones. Some of the cash prizes are pretty big especially on their season long cycling games. I will be setting up a couple of fantasy teams for the Vuelta in August/September and I will have some links to share to the various games on offer closer to that time.

      Thanks
      Martin

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