Tour de France 2017 Stage 20 is the penultimate day’s racing in this year’s tour. This is the second Individual Time Trial (ITT) and is set to decide the top of the GC.
I’m posting this preview before the end of stage 20 – so hoping for no crashes in the run to the line.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 20 – Profile
The stage is another short ITT of only 22.5 kms. It starts and finishes in the Orange Velodrome football stadium in Marseille.
The route is almost entirely flat with the exception of the climb up to the Notre-Dame de la Garde cathedral. The climb is not classified but does rise 100 metres over a 2 km span.
The route suits the traditional ITT power riders as well as the climbing ITT types. The one thing to consider when looking at betting selections is tiredness!
Tour de France 2017 Stage 20 – Favourites
Stefan Kung (BMC Racing) was second in the opening ITT in this years race. Kung has played the role of support rider throughout the tour rarely venturing in to breaks. I think he must be fancied heavily for stage honours – he appears to be rested! Looking at odds in the early markets 11.0 for Kung looks incredible!
Johnathan Castroviejo (Movistar) is also an excellent ITT rider. He has been more active in the mountain stages of the Tour as support for team leader Quintana. He climbs better than Kung which should give him a slight time boost on the 2 kms of the climb. There is definite value in backing him EW at 26.0.
Tony Martin (Katusha) failed to win the opening ITT in his homeland. Martin is the best ITT rider in the race and hasn’t been in breaks the last few stages. His aim was to win at least one stage in the race and this is his final chance. The Katusha team also need a win. Martin is suited to the course – the climb is short enough to not cause him too many issues. He does not have the best record in ITT’s in the final week of the Tour bar 2014- that suggests he may tire in week 3 of this race. Martin is at 9.0 for the stage – probably higher than usual and the EW is in play.
Primoz Roglic (Lotto NL-Jumbo) already has a stage win and a mountain stage win at that. Roglic won an ITT in last years Giro – but to be fair weather played a part in that result. Still he should be in the mix for the podium places. Roglic is 2nd favourite for the win at 4.0. That is a little short for my taste.
Vasil Kiryienka (Team Sky) has an excellent ITT pedigree – he has been World Champion in the discipline before. Kiryienka has played a super domestique role for Froome in the race including in the last two mountain stages. That is my one concern in backing him. I think he may have depleted his energy stores too much to challenge for the stage win. He is as high as 41.0 for the win.
Chris Froome (Team Sky) is in the enviable position of being able to follow his GC rivals on the stage. He is expected to better Uran and Bardet by some margin based on their ITT records anyway – but this gives him a further advantage. I’m not sure he will win the stage as he is not at his top-level in the race and he must be knackered too. Remember he doesn’t need to win the stage he just needs to beat Uran and Bardet. Froome opens as favourite at 1.83 – I feel this is much too short.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 20 – Outsiders
Rigoberto Uran (Canondale-Drapac) has not produced an elite ITT for more than 2 years. He was way down on stage 1 but that may have been caution in the wet streets of Dusseldorf. Uran is back to top form so we can expect a decent ITT but there is no way he wins the stage and zero chance he overhauls Froome (unless he crashes). Not for me at 34.0.
Michal Kwiatkowski (Team Sky) has improved his ITT performances in the last 18 months. He can be backed at 41.0 for the stage and was decent in the stage 1 ITT. The problem is he has done so much work in the mountains for Froome and Landa. There is no way he can be close to his best on Saturday.
Stephen Cummings (Dimension Data) the British ITT champion for 2017 is a bit of a wildcard. Cummings hasn’t managed to get his stage win and decided to miss the break on stage 19. This might be to allow him some recovery before a full-bore effort on stage 20.
I really do not like the chances of anyone else.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 20 – Tips
Bet on Stefan Kung to win stage 20 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 2) at 11.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Tony Martin to win stage 20 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 2) at 9.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Johnathan Castroviejo to win stage 20 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 2) at 26.0 with Paddy Power.
Back all three here: