Tour de France 2017 Stage 3 takes place on Monday 3rd July. This looks like it could be the first ‘interesting’ stage of the 2017 race. The terrain means that this will not be won by the pure sprinters. We should also see the GC riders near the front of the race at the end of the stage.
I’m hoping for another win on Monday following on from a win in stage 2 and a second place in the opening ITT.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 3 – The Profile and Final Kilometre
The third stage takes the riders on a 212.5km course from Verviers to Longwy. This is a rare stage in the TDF in that it encompasses 3 countries. The stage begins in Belgium, passes into Luxembourg and then ends in France.
In many ways the profile looks more like an early season ‘classics’ race than a TDF stage. The terrain is rolling all day with 5 classified climbs sprinkled throughout the route. These include 2 category 3 climbs and 3 category 4’s. This means that in addition to the breakaway featuring riders aiming for the stage win – we will also have riders looking to lead the KOTM classification. They will definitely be pulled back in by the peloton before the penultimate climb. Lots of teams will be looking for the stage win on Monday.
The days climbs in order are:
- Côte de Sart – at km 18.0 – 2.8 kilometre-long climb at 5.1% – category 4
- Côte de Wiltz – at km 105.5 – 3.1 kilometre-long climb at 4.8% – category 4
- Côte d’Eschdorf – at km 120.5 – 2.3 kilometre-long climb at 9.3% – category 3
- Côte de Villers-la-Montagne – at km 197.0 – 1.1 kilometre-long climb at 5.2% – category 4
- LONGWY – Côte des Religieuses -at km 212.5 – 1.6 kilometre-long climb at 5.8% – category 3
The key to the stage is the final climb into Longwy itself. It is long enough and steep enough to be too tough for the majority of the sprinters in the race. The first half is much tougher than the final 800 metres. Instead it will be contested by the puncheurs – the types of riders who do well in the classics races. Also look for the main GC riders to be close to the front. They won’t want to lose more than a handful of seconds to their rivals. The pace at the base of the Longwy climb will be immense as riders try to get into prime position to attack. Watch out for accidents!
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Tour de France 2017 Stage 3 – The Favourites
Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe) won a stage eerily similar to this at the start of last years race. There he easily moved through the peloton and beat the absent Julian Alaphilippe in the dart for the line. Sagan was a little disappointing on stage 2 when he was blocked a little by Sonny Colbrelli close to the line. Still, this is a stage he would have been targeting pre-race and I love his odds at 3.75 for the win.
Philippe Gilbert (Quick Step-Floors) has been brilliant in 2017 returning to his best form. His classics results were brilliant. The stage starts in his home town and he will be looking to add to his lone TDF stage win from 2011 here. He starts as third favourite for the stage won at odds around 11.0. I’m not sure he can beat Sagan on this type of finish.
Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing) has been in a purple patch for 18 months now. His classics results in particular have been outstanding. GVA loves this type of terrain and will be a threat but I fear this stage is essentially who is quickest on the final climb. Unlike the classics there won’t be a wearing down process through the days racing and I feel a large group will approach the final climb. In this scenario I just cannot see GVA winning. His early odds at 10.0 do have EW value.
Michal Kwiatkowski (Team Sky) is another rider who has been sensational in the classics. He has won on a couple of occasions on terrain just like this and will fancy his chances of a win in Longwy. There may be the issue of guarding team leaders but odds of 81.0 look ridiculous. His win in Milan-San Remo showed he has the ability to win races with late climbs. He has to be backed EW.
Arnaud Demare (FDJ) is a sprinter that can go well on this type of shorter climb. If he can get over the first half of the ascent in touch then he will have a good chance of winning the stage. Demare was a close second to Kittel on stage 2 and will be looking to go one better on Monday. His win at Paris-Nice was on roads with a similar late kick-up and I’m stunned he is as high as 21.0 for the stage.
Michael Matthews (Sunweb) has a decent record in races with finishes like stage 2. Matthews doesn’t possess the speed to win an all-in flat bunch sprint – but he has enough explosion to win an uphill sprint. He should be in the mix but I can’t see him bettering Sagan and/or Demare. True he beat Sagan on Sunday but that was on the flat – Sagan on a slope is a different beast. I’m a little surprised Matthews is 2nd favourite at 5.50.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 3 – Outsiders & GC Riders
This group includes riders who are explosive on short steep climbs and some of the GC riders.
Dan Martin (Quick Step-Floors) has a rare turn of pace on short steep climbs. Now that his nemesis in Classics races, Alejandro Valverde is out of the race, Martin might fancy his chances. Martin would need to make a break on the first half of the Longwy climb and then try to hold on for the win. Odds of 26.0 have EW potential.
Sergio Henao (Team Sky) would probably prefer either a slightly longer finale or one that is a little steeper. I think he will comfortably be in the top 10-12 but I’m not sure this is a stage for him to challenge for the podium. Odds of 251.0 probably accurately reflect his chances.
Diego Ulissi (UAE Team Emirates) is a lighter explosive type of rider. He really could do with getting a win for his team and he may target stage 2. I feel he is an outsider because of the quality of rider in the race. Like Martin his only chance would be to get a gap in the first 800 metres of the climb and then hold off the fast approaching Sagan et al. Like Martin he can be backed at 26.0.
Esteban Chaves and Simon Yates (Orica-Scott) are also lighter fast men that go well on these types of climbs. They both have GC aspirations but dropped time to Froome on stage 1. They need to get some of that deficit back quickly and will surely try for the win here – the bonus seconds would be nice too. Yates is at 151.0 and Chaves at 201.0 but this seems a tall order.
Fabio Felline (Trek-Segafredo) is at 19.0 and should do fairly well on Monday. He was decent for large parts of the classics season and climbs well enough to distance the pure sprinters. That puts him in with an outside chance on the stage. If pushed I think he is the best from this section of my preview.
Expect race favourite Chris Froome (Team Sky) to be within the top 10 on the stage. He will be closely marking his rivals – all of whom need to gain back some time on Froome following the ITT on stage 1.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 3 – Tips
WON – Bet on Peter Sagan to win stage 3 with a 3.0/10 stake at 3.75 with Paddy Power.
Back Michal Kwiatkowski to win stage 3 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 81.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Arnaud Demare to win stage 3 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 21.0 with Paddy Power.
Back all 3 here:
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