Tour de France 2017 Stage 5 on Wednesday 5th July should see the first GC battles on the final climb of the stage.
Four stages into the 2017 race and I have two stage wins and two runner-ups places. Demare and Sagan are also leading the way in the Green Jersey Classification too!
Tour de France 2017 Stage 5 – The Profile and Final Climb
Stage 5 is shorter at 160.5kms than the previous 3 road stages. It is also more difficult with the first proper climbs of the 2017 course.
The riders will race from Vittel to La Planche des Belles Filles over terrain that gets tougher the closer the riders get to the line.
The profile on the left shows that the first 100kms of the stage aren’t too bad. Yes, there are a few ups and downs but they aren’t significant. The stage begins proper at the 102.5kms mark. The roads go up here just after the Intermediate Sprint. The category 3 Cote d’Esmoulieres is the entree climb at an 8% gradient over 2.3kms. Weirdly, the riders climb for about another 10kms after the KOTM point of this climb.
A sharp descent takes the race to the 130km point. This is where the big boys will emerge. An unclassified climb takes the riders to the 152km marker. From here there is one brutal climb to the finish line.
The La Planche des Belles Filles climb is nasty – plain and simple. It is 5.9kms in length and averages 8.5%. As the mountain profile shows there are many sections steeper than the average gradient. The first km is 13% and the final 500 metres is as high as 20%. The best climbers will want to show their legs on this stage.
I see the stage as the classic TDF stage – break goes and is closely monitored by teams with GC aspirations. The breakaway will be closed down on the preliminary climb before the finale. The GC teams will race full-bore into the base of the La Planche des Belles Filles climb. I think a couple of the GC riders a little bit down on GC will initiate early attacks. The main GC contenders may attack just before the 4km point on the climb. Here the gradient lessens and they may try to get a gap before the brutal final 500 metre stretch.
I would give the break about a 5% chance of staying away. My betting preview below will not consider riders who may form a break.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 5 – Favourites
Chris Froome (Team Sky) in past Tours has used the early mountain stages as attack points. This is for two reasons – one to gain time on rivals and two to assert superiority over his rivals. I see no reason to expect anything other than a Froome attack on the climb. I think he is correctly stage favourite at 3.25.
Richie Porte (BMC Racing) lost more time than he would have hoped and expected on stage 1. He needs to not lose time to Froome on stage 5 to stay in contention on GC. If Porte can carry his form from earlier races onto La Planche des Belles Filles than he will be very tough to beat. Odds of 5.50 look to be very generous.
Nairo Quintana (Movistar) was way below par except for on one mountain stage at the Giro. Interestingly, that mountain stage was the steepest of the Giro and Quintana won that fairly easily. Quintana can win this stage but I don’t think he will. He seems to be in awe of Froome at this race and rarely attacks. He likes to follow too much and I fear any hesitation on the final climb and he could be dropped. Quintana is 4th favourite here at 8.0 – the EW works but it is not a bet I’m willing to make.
Alberto Contador (Trek-Segafredo) would have loved this climb 5 years ago. In his pomp he would attack on this type of climb and put his rivals to the sword. Sadly, that Contador is no more. I think he may try to attack lower down but he doesn’t have the legs to win this type of stage anymore – especially in this company. You could do worse at odds of 15.0 – but I fear this would be wasted money.
Esteban Chaves (Orica-Scott) will be looking for his Tour breakthrough on Wednesday. Chaves is light and he is explosive on climbs. He lost time on stage 1 which might mean he gets a little leeway to attack. I don’t see him as a real GC podium threat (yet) and this may help in his quest for the stage win. Chaves at 41.0 represenst a decent EW bet. I had written the bulk of this preview before I saw the odds for stage 5. I felt Chaves would be priced lower than this so am a little surprised.
Fabio Aru (Astana) has ambitions to win this years Tour. Aru is a super climber but is another who goes better on the longer type of Alpine stage. I think this one might be a little too steep at the top for Aru to win the stage. Odds of 8.00 are similar to Quintana – but can he beat Froome and Porte? Not for me.
Dan Martin (Quick Step-Floors) tends to go extremely well on climbs with really steep sections like the top of La Planche des Belles Filles. He was on the podium on stage 3 and I think he can replicate that here. Odds at 23.0 look great for an EW bet.
Geraint Thomas (Team Sky) will be there or thereabouts on Wednesday. His results in week-long mountain stage races in the last 18 months have shown he has the ability to climb with the elite. On a one-off climb like this he should be fine. I don’t think he can win the stage but he should be in the top 10. I think 34.0 is a decent price for Thomas.
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Tour de France 2017 Stage 5 – Outsiders
If the GC riders mark each other on the climb – this is a distinct possibility, then it opens the door for others to emerge. This includes the three riders that will contend the Young Jersey Classification:
- Louis Meintjes (UAE Team Emirates) – can climb well on this type of slope (odds 51.0);
- Emanuel Buchmann (Bora Hansgrohe) – looked good in the climbing sections of the Dauphine (odds 201.0);
- Simon Yates (Orica-Scott) isn’t quite as explosive as team-mate Chaves (odds 67.0).
Plus, a number of others whose chances I’m not keen on.
Romain Bardet (AG2R) – Bardet doesn’t tend to do too well on slopes with this type of steep gradient. He produces his best climbing results in the high mountains not on a single flat-out climb like this. He was decent on stage 3’s finale however and 15.0 does offer EW potential.
Sergio Henao, Mikel Landa and Mikel Nieve (Team Sky) are all capable of winning this stage – that must be a frightening thought for Team Sky’s rivals. My fear is that they will be on team duties for Froome and Thomas. Sky have shown a different tactic in 2017 of sending riders off the front of the peloton forcing rivals to chase. They certainly have the men to do that here.
Rafal Majka (Bora-Hansgrohe) ahs been talked up as a GC threat but I just don’t see it. I think he targets the KOTM again and there will be too much action for him to win the stage. I’m not keen on backing Majka at 23.0.
Jakob Fuglsang (Astana) was ‘out-of-this-world’ at the Dauphine especially on the climbing stages. This might be a little too steep for him – Fuglsang is one of the bigger climbers in the race. I still don’t trust his Dauphine performance and am not keen at 23.0
Tour de France 2017 Stage 5 – Tips
I’m going for obvious choices – boring but I think they stand a strong chance of a result. Chaves would be my 4th choice but I’m sticking with 3 bets.
Bet on Chris Froome to win stage 5 with a 2.5/10 stake at 3.25 with Paddy Power.
Back Richie Porte to win stage 5 with a 1.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 5.50 with Paddy Power.
PLACED 2ND – Bet on Daniel Martin to win stage 5 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 23.0 with Paddy Power.
Back them all here:
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