Tour de France 2017 Stage 8 is the first of the proper mountain stages in this years race. The stage takes place on Saturday 8th July – two days prior to Rest Day One.
Thank you Marcel Kittel for delivering my 4th win of the race so far on Friday!
Tour de France 2017 Stage 8 – The Profile
Stage 8 is 187.5kms in length from Dole to Station Des Rousses. Aside from the first 28kms the days racing is essentially up or down.
The stage gets tougher the further the riders cycle. There are only 3 categorised climbs which is surprising when looking at the days profile map. I can see 5 other climbs that could also have been given minor categorisation.
The first peak comes at Col de la Joux – a category 3 climb peaked at 101.5kms. The climb is 6.1kms at 4.7%. A small plateau is followed by 20kms of descent. Then it is straight onto the Cote de Viry – category 2 climb of 7.6kms at 5.2%. A false descent is followed by another small climb before the riders drop to the base of the longest and hardest climb of the day.
The final climb is the Montee de la Combe de Laisa Les Molunes. This is a category 1 climb of 11.7kms at 6.4%. Really the peak should be the end of the stage but the race organisers have decided to have the finish line 12km further along a plateau section. I love mountain top finishes but Le Tour want to try to eliminate those types of finishes in this years race to make a ‘level’ playing field and encourage more riders to attack.
Stage 8 looks like on that the breakaway may have a chance of winning. If the right riders i.e. those way down on GC or those with no real GC chance, get into a break then the GC teams may let them stay clear. Looking at the profile for Sunday’s stage I think this is the more likely for the break to succeed. This, of course makes my job a lot more difficult as I have to tip breakaway and GC riders for the stage win!
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Tour de France 2017 Stage 8 – Breakaway Riders
I will include the riders who specialise in Grand Tour breaks in this section. Six riders from 3 teams are known for loving being in a TDF break.
Tim Wellens and Thomas de Gendt (Lotto Soudal) are real break specialists – both have Grand Tour stage wins on days they won from breaks. The difficulty is choosing which one will be in Saturday’s break. Either would really like their chances to win in Station Des Rousses if they could get into a break of 6 or so riders. The aim would be to attack on the final climb and then solo or head for the finish line with no more than one or two other riders. Wellens is at 21.0 and de Gendt at 34.0.
Pierre Rolland and Simon Clarke (Canondale – Drapac). Rolland attacked a lot in the recent Giro and did eventually nick a stage win. The terrain on that day was eerily similar to that on stage 8 of the Tour. He may wait until a little later on in the race to go for Tour glory. Clarke is an excellent rider and he is the one I fancy from the team in stage 8. Rolland is at 34.0 and Clarke as high as 151.0.
Thomas Voeckler and Sylvain Chavanel (Direct Energie). Voeckler is in his final TDF and will be looking to put his gurning visage smack bang in front of the tv cameras on at least one occasion in this race. His team-mate Chavanel is also coming to the end of his career. Were he to win a stage in this years Tour he might call it a day and leave on a high note. Both climb well enough to be a factor in a break. Each can be backed at 67.0.
I could place a number of other riders in this section e.g. Greg Van Avermaet – but feel they may be on duty for thier team leaders in the GC battle. Others I like for stage 8 include some strong climbers and break specialists.
Gianluca Brambilla (Quick Step-Floors) won from a break at good odds for me in the 2016 Giro. He also won a Vuelta stage – from a break in 2016. A stage win in the Tour would complete the Grand Tour stage win hat-trick. My concern is whether he is kept back for now as mountain support for Dan Martin. Brambilla is as high as 51.0.
Stephen Cummings (Dimension Data) has looked fabulous in the last few weeks as he returned from injury. He targets a stage in each Tour and this might be the one he goes for in 2017. Cummings is stage favourite at 11.0.
Tsgabu Gebremaryam Grmay (Bahrain-Merida) the team will be looking for stage wins after losing thier GC rider on stage 1. Grmay is a rider that climbs well enough to do well on this stage. He can be backed at 301.0 for the win.
Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) has stated all along that he is looking for stage wins in this years race. If he can get into the break he will be favoured to win the stage. Of the riders mentioned in this section he would fear none of them on the final climb of the day. With odds as high as 29.0 Pinot looks super value.
John Darwin Atapuma (UAE Team Emirates) is one of my KOTM Jersey picks. This stage looks perfect for Atapuma – assuming the team haven’t earmarked a GC place for him. He climbs really well and odds of 41.0 excite me.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 8 – GC Riders
If the GC riders decide to close down the days break then we need to look for riders that can sprint after a tough climb. This would include the likes of:
- Chris Froome, Geraint Thomas and Michal Kwiatkowski (Team Sky)
- Dan Martin (Quick Step-Floors)
- Fabio Aru (Astana)
- Simon Yates (Orica-Scott)
Of these Dan Martin would probably be the favourite. He has been close to stage wins twice so far and has that ability to do well in a sprint from a small group. His odds are around the 21.0 mark and the EW works really well.
I’m not going to delve too much into the other GC riders as I feel secure in this being a stage for the break.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 8 – Tips
I’m taking slightly lower odds with a couple of my bets but using a bookmaker offering 5 places.
Bet on Thibaut Pinot to win stage 8 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 5) at 21.0 with Boylesports.
Back Tim Wellens to win stage 8 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 5) at 21.0 with Boylesports.
Bet on John Darwin Atapuma to win stage 8 with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 5) at 41.0 with Boylesports.
Back Gianluca Brambilla to win stage 8 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 5) at 21.0 with Boylesports.
Bet on Simon Clarke to win stage 8 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 5) at 125.0 with Boylesports.
Back them all here:
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