Stage 4 – Norwood to CampbellTown (150kms)
Tour Down Under 2017 – Stage 4 takes place on Friday 19th January. Remember, this is in Australia so the stage start time will be around midnight UK time on Friday morning. Get your bets in early.
Three stages into the race we have 3 stage wins for Australia and the overall race leader. I anticipate the only change come the end of stage 4 is that there are 4 Australian stage wins!
Stage 4 starts in Norwood with an ascent through the first 10kms of the days racing. The riders climb to the town of Paradise and essentially reach a plateau that lasts for about 115kms. There are some ups and downs during this middle phase of the stage but the riders remain between 300-450 Metres above sea level throughout.
The final 25kms see the roads drop significantly towards CampbellTown. The last 10kms in particular will be very fast. The finish line is on a slight rise but I cannot see anything other than another bunch sprint. Stage 5 on Saturday has a killer finish so the GC riders will be trying to stay out of trouble on Friday. They will let the sprinters fight it out for the win.
The Contenders
I think this is essentially Caleb Ewen’s (Orica-Scott) stage to lose. He has two wins from two sprints here so far, plus the People’s Choice Award win last Saturday. Even a crash in the bunch sprint couldn’t stop him on Wednesday. Ewen just looks quicker than anyone else so far. I am now a believer, backed him correctly in stage 3 and will back Ewan again on stage 4 especially at odds of 7.0.
Peter Sagan (Bora Hansgrohe) finished 2nd on stage 3 – his best finish thus far in the Tour Down Under 2017. He also was impressive towards the end of Stage 2 and looks to be getting better as the race goes on. I would suspect he will be the closest challenger to Ewan in CampbellTown. Were he in mid-season form I would back him with a high level of confidence. Here he is favourote at 4.00. Too short for me.
Sagan’s team-mate Sam Bennett finished 3rd on stage 1 but didn’t feature in the sprint in stage 3. He should be more of a factor here as the finale suits him a bit better. The big question is whether Sagan continues to ride for Bennett or if Sagan now goes for stage wins himself. I suspect we might see a bit of the latter, thus diminishing Bennett’s chances.
Outsiders
The usual suspects fill out this group. Edward Theuns (Trek-Segafredo) finished stage 1 in 8th and improved to 5th in stage 3. As per my preview yesterday, I’m not convinced he has the speed to beat the likes of Ewan or Sagan.
Danny Van Poppel (Team Sky) finished 2nd to Ewan on stage 1 and was 4th yesterday. Of the outsiders group he looks like the best bet to me to challenge for the stage win.
Niccolò Bonifazio (Bahrain-Merida) is the other in the mix for the podium places. He has two decent results in the sprints so far (5th on stage 1 and 3rd on stage 3. Can he beat Ewan, with Ewan in such red-hot form? I don’t think so but he might be in with a chance of 3rd so you could place a small EW bet.
I cannot see any other rider in the race causing an upset.
Tour Down Under 2017 – Stage 4 Tips
WON – Back Caleb Ewan to win stage four with a 1.50/10 EW (1/4 odds top 3) stake at 7.00 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
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