Stage 6 – Adelaide (90kms)
Stage Six of the 2017 Tour Down Under takes place on Sunday 22nd January. Remember, this is in Australia so the stage start time will be around 2am UK time on Sunday morning. Get your bets in early.
Stage 6 comprises a street circuit in the capital of South Australia – Adelaide. This is the traditional finale for the Tour Down Under and will end in a bunch sprint. The stage is the shortest of the race at a mere 90kms. The circuit is 4.5kms with a small climb – Montefiore Hill ascended in each loop.
The stage should be very, very fast with lots of riders attempting to escape from the peloton. Following the tough finish on stage 5 the sprinters teams will be looking for glory in Adelaide. The big question is – can Caleb Ewan win a 4th stage in the race?
The Contenders
Caleb Ewan (Orica-Scott) is the red-hot favourite to win stage 6 in Adelaide. He has won all three sprints he has contested in the race so far and looks imperious. It is highly likely that he wins in Adelaide but I have a tough time backing anyone at odds of 1.61. A bump in the run to the line or an accidental block and his run is ruined. I know Orica-Scott have marshalled Ewan well in the sprints bit to make anything on those odds I would need a large stake. The risk is too high for me.
Peter Sagan (Bora Hansgrohe) is likely to be Ewan’s closest challenger on Sunday. He finished runner-up on stage 4. Sagan appears to be going through the motions as he gains fitness but is still a danger. A friend who has been watching each stage on the course in South Australia suggests Sagan is riding at about 80% of his maximum level. They feel his sponsors have requested he appear to boost their and the races profile. The fact he is 10.0 opens up the EW bet.
Danny Van Poppel (Team Sky) has been the third most impressive sprinter in this race. He has been on the podium 3 times with a runner-up and third place finish, plus a 4th place too. The bookies have him priced at 13.0 and like Sagan I like this as a small EW bet. I am not sure he can beat Ewan but there is an upside in the EW market.
The Others
Sam Bennett (Bora Hansgrohe) featured well on stage 1 but has disappointed since finishing outside the top 10 in the sprints on stages 3 & 4. It is doubtful in my mind that he can feature at the front on Sunday. Leave him alone at odds of 9.0.
Niccolo Bonifazio (Bahrain Merida) has a 3rd place, a 5th place and an outside the top 10 finish in the three bunch sprint finishes thus far. He has been priced alongside Sagan at 10.0 but he hasn’t shown a consistent ability to finish in the top 3. I will pass on him for success in Adelaide.
Tour Down Under Stage 6 Tips
I will go with one EW bet for stage 6. The Tour Down Under 2017 has been lucrative with 3 stages wins and the probable overall winner – barring accidents. I pick Sagan as the most likely to finish 2nd or 3rd and give my winnings a small boost.
PLACED – Back Peter Sagan to win stage six with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 10.0 with Paddy Power.
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