The final push of the 2016 race starts on Wednesday with Vuelta a Espana Stage 17. The next five stages will determine who will win the various jerseys on offer.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 17 – The Profile
The riders that remain in this years race will enjoy the rest day on Tuesday after the gruelling second week of racing. Wednesdays stage is straight back into the mountains with 4 categorised climbs including a mountain top finish.
The stage begins in Castellón and finishes 177.5kms later in Camins del Penyagolosa. Almost from the off the riders will start climbing. There is a 10km lead in to the category 2 – Alto del Desierto de las Palmas. This is 7.3kms long at 5.1%. Perfect for a group of breakaway riders to make their escape.
From the 30km point the riders essentially climb for the next 80kms. In this sector of the stage they will climb two more categorised mountains. First at 70kms they start the category 2 Alto de la Serratella. This is long at 14.2kms but not too steep at 3.6%. The Alto de Benasal follows shortly after at 11.2kms at 3%.
If the break contains a group of riders way down on GC then there is a strong chance they will be allowed to contest the stage. They will be able to consolidate their time gap in this part of the race. If Team Sky decide to try something on stage 17 to get Chris Froome closer to the race lead then this could be an attack point.
From the top of the Alto de Benasal the roads descent to a valley section. The valley is a little lumpy for about 30kms before the riders reach the finale. This is a category one climb to the finish line. The Llucena Camins de Penyagolosa is very short at 3.8kms bit averages 12.5%, It is a brute and will decide the outcome of the stage.
Cock-a-hoop in Camins del Penyagolosa
Breakaway riders
Kenny Elissonde (FDJ) has to be in the days break. He is leading the KOTM jersey classification and will need to mark any rivals that attack. Elissonde will also be looking for a stage win having gone close on stage. Ellisonde can be backed in the 26.0-14.0 range. Great for a small EW selection.
Omar Fraile (Dimension Data) will have to be in the break. He trails Elissonde by 8 points (56 to 48) and could close the gap on stage 17 with the points on offer in the 4 climbs. I’m a little surprised than Fraile can be backed at odds of 51.0 for stage 17. True he has tended to fade from breaks as they approach the final climb but a top 3 is a possibility from a small group.
A couple of riders I would hope would be in the break are Darwin Atapuma (BMC) and Gianluca Brambilla (Etiix). BMC won a stage on Monday and Brambilla won after insitgating the craziness on stage 15. This means the pressure is off both riders. They have the qualities to win stage 17. Both are punchy climbers that would fancy their chances of winning from a break containing the main KOTM contenders. They are both sufficiently behind on GC to be allowed to escape and stay away in a break. The bookmakers like my reasoning as they have Brambilla as joint favourite at 8.0-10.0. Atapuma can be backed as low as 15.0 or as high as 41.0. I like the latter!
Will Fabio Felline feature in a break again? He has been in 3 now I think looking for a stage win. He has been so close with multiple stage podiums but I think the finale is too steep for him to win on. This will be especially true if Elissonde, Atapuma or Brambilla are present. Still he has nice odds for a small EW bet at 51.0.
Canondale are still looking for their stage win from the 2016 race. They have managed to get one or more rider into almost every break in the race but haven’t managed to get a win. Pierre Rolland and Moreno Moser have been almost ever presents in the break – there is a high chance on will appear tomorrow. Ben King is another that could feature, They can be backed at 41.0, 81.0 and 301.0 respectively. King at 301.0 as a really small EW bet could work. King was in a break really early in the race but not featured since. He could well be the freshest of the 3.
GC Battle
Team Sky almost have to try something on stage 17. There are not many chances left for them to try to get Froome closer to Quintana. I think if they do try to attack it has to be earlier than the finale. The gradient on the Alto de Benasal suits Nairo Quintana much more than Froome. If the ‘attack’ is left til the finale I can see Quintana increasing the time gap between the two. Froome also has to be conscious of the riders behind him on GC. Each can be backed at 8.00 and to me there is more value in Quintana at this price than Froome.
Esteban Chaves gained some time on Froome on stage 17 and he is priced at 13.0 for stage 17. I’m not sure Movistar will allow him to get too big a lead on the Alto de Benasal but he has the explosiveness to win on such a tough stage.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 17 – Tips
Back Kenny Elissonde to win stage 17 with a 0.50/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 41.0 with Bet365.
Bet on Darwin Atapuma to win stage 17 with a 0.50/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 41.0 with Bet365.
Back Ben King to win stage 17 with a 0.25/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 301.0 with Bet365.
Bet on all 3 here:
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