Stage 5 of Paris-Nice 2017 takes place on Thursday and looks like another classics sort of days racing.
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 5 – The Profile
Stage 5 sees the riders race 199.5kms from Quincie-En-Beaujolais to Borg-De-Peage. As you can see in the profile to the left this one goes up and down all day.
Stage 5 features two categorised climbs. The first is the Cote de Givors (category 3) at 98kms. This is 4.3kms in length at 4.2%.
The second tougher climb comes at 152.5kms – Cote de Saint-Uze. It is only 2.7kms in length but averages 6.5%. From here to the finish the stage still goes up and down. The bookmakers expect a big bunch sprint finish – I’m not completely sold on that.
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 5 – Favourites
The sprinters dominate the top of the betting market for stage 5. This will be their last chance to go for a win as the final 3 stages will be for the climbers/puncheurs.
Marcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors) is clear favourite in the betting market at 2.87. Thus far in Paris-Nice 2017 he has failed miserably given his early season success. It is looking like he is a ‘good weather’ sprinter with his wins coming in hot sunny weather. As we have seen the weather here is miserable and the climbing on the stage doesn’t suit him. AVOID.
John Degenkolb (Trek Segafredo) has been there or thereabouts in the last two sprints including placing for me on Tuesday. He can get over the climbs in this stage and has value once more as second favourite at 7.0.
Andre Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) & Alexander Kristoff (Katusha) come next at 8.0. Both have had chances for stage wins here but neither has been able to come through in the finale. I’m not sure they will change that on stage 5.
Sam Bennett (Bora Hansgrohe) surprised us with his impressive sprint finish and stage win on Tuesday. This was his big breakthrough at top-level and his odds have plummeted for a repeat on stage 5. He is now as short as 9.0 – still okay for an EW bet.
Beware backing Bennett because Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain-Merida) won stage 3 as a breakthrough result too. His odds shortened for stage 4 from the mid-30s to mid-teens but as I hinted he couldn’t back up that result two days in a row. For stage 5 Colbrelli has returned to the mid-30s once more. This actually holds more value and the EW looks like a better option than Bennett at 9.0
Arnaud Demarre (FDJ) has the most consistent sprint results in Paris-Nice so far with a win and a 3rd plus another top 6. I like his odds for stage 5 at 13.0. He proved on stage 1 that he can get over the shorter steep climbs. He should be in with a decent shout on Thursday.
Dylan Groenewegen (Lotto NL-Jumbo) crashed in the run-in on Wednesday when well positioned in the bunch. He too can be backed at 13.0 and I think he is capable of a podium place. The EW works with his odds too.
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 5 – Outsiders
Michael Matthews (Sunweb) has started to look a little feisty in the last couple of days. Were the bunch to split in the final 40kms of stage 5 then this would increase his chances of a win. Odds of 19.0 hold decent value for a small stake.
Bryan Coquard (Direct Energie) has endured a miserable Paris-Nice so far. Coquard was looking to challenge for stage wins but has yet to feature – losing lots of time on stages 1 and 2. You can back him at 34.0 but he has shown little to merit your support.
Were the racing to be fast and furious then the GC riders come into contention for the stage win. The quickest of those is probably Julian Alaphilippe (Quick-Step Floors) who can be backed at 81.0 here for the stage win. A very small stake EW could provide huge results. In this scenario I would also be tempted by:
- Nikias Arndt (Sunweb) – 81.0;
- Tony Gallopin (Lotto-Soudal) – 101.0;
- Philippe Gilbert (Quick-Step Floors) – 101.0;
- Simon Gerrans (Orica-Scott) – 151.0;
- Moreno Hofland (Lotto-Soudal) – 251.0.
One of the group could be worth a small EW stake. Of these I like Gerrans. His team have been quiet in the race so far and I think this might be their last chance of going for s atage win.
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 5 – Tips
PLACED – Bet on Arnaud Demare to win stage 5 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 13.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Simon Gerrans to win stage 5 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 151.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Michael Matthews to win stage 5 with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 19.0 with Paddy Power.
Back them all here:
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