The final stages of the latest season of the UEFA Nations League get underway on Wednesday evening when the hosts Germany go up against former winners Portugal in the opening semi-final of the competition.
Both these sides will have their sights set on a deep run at the World Cup next summer and heading there with silverware will provide them with a timely boost so while this might not be the most illustrious competition, this should be a competitive semi-final.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full in the UK on Amazon Prime Video with their build-up getting underway in Munich at 7.45pm ahead of the 8pm kick off.
Germany
Germany have home advantage for these finals so they will be expected to go well as a result of that. They probably don’t need reminding that they had home advantage at the Euros a summer ago and didn’t convert that into silverware so they will be aiming to make up for that this time around. After a long season, not having to do too much travelling has to be an advantage but at the same time they are missing enough players to make them look vulnerable.
When you look at the group stage and path through to this semi-final, Germany have been full of goals but they have conceded plenty too and it will be interesting to see whether Julian Nagelsmann has been able to tighten up the defence. In a few days you wouldn’t think that would be the case so this Germany side might need to continue to look to dominate matches and come out on top in, if not shootouts, then certainly high scoring games.
Portugal
You sort of get the feeling that this is a big few days for Portugal. They were fancied my many to go very well at the Euros last summer but that didn’t materialise and while this won’t be high up on their list of sought-after silverware, it would restore confidence and belief in them should they win it. Last summer, the forward options for Roberto Martinez were off the charts. This summer he probably has the strongest midfield in Europe and it will be interesting to see if that translates into a spot in the final.
Despite that midfield, Portugal have only won two of their last five matches in this competition. It will be interesting to see how Roberto Martinez lines his team up here with a quartet of key players having the emotional high of the Champions League final just four days ago. You’d like to think that whoever he utilises, going forward Portugal will be fine but defensively there might just be one or two weaknesses as evidenced by the fact that they have only kept one clean sheet in this competition in eight matches.
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Team News
Julian Nagelsmann is going to be without the likes of Antonio Rudiger, Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz to injury or a shortness of match fitness while the likes of Toni Kroos, Manuel Nauer and Thomas Muller are a thing of the past.
Roberto Martinez will need to decide whether his PSG quartet of Nuno Mendes, Vitinha, Joao Neves and Goncalo Ramos are good to go so soon after the Champions League final. Cristiano Ronaldo is in the squad but may start on the bench.
Betting
When you look at the last 12 months for these two sides I think it would make plenty of sense to expect goals in this game. In terms of who will win or qualify you have the home advantage of Germany against potentially the better side in Portugal should all of their Champions League finalists be good to go but both teams look light defensively so I’m not going to try and work out which of the two I like the most, instead I’ll focus on goals.
The way I’ll play this one is for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals. That is a bet that has cashed in five of the Portugal matches in this competition and four of the Germany ones. These two look much better going forward than they do defensively and with some good creative talents in midfield we should be expecting both defences to be opened up here. Nations League semi-finals have generally seen teams go after the wins. There have been six semi-finals and five of the six have had over 2.5 goals and the other finished 1-1 so BTTS has cashed in all six. I expect both to land in this semi-final.
Tips
Back Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals for a 3/10 stake at 1.85 with William Hill
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