The US Open will get underway in Pittsburgh on Thursday but before the first tee ball is hit in the tournament there is just enough time for us to take a look at the many side markets that are on offer for the competition.
As is the case in pretty much all of the major tournaments, we have various side markets to peruse for this event from top nationality bets to individual player markets, scores and a whole lot more. There are five markets I like the look of in total.
Top Great Britain & Irish Player
One of the bigger markets in terms of profile and depth is the one featuring the British and Irish players, of which there are no fewer than 15 with a tee time in the tournament this week, each looking to tame the beast that is Oakmont Country Club. Rory McIlroy is the jolly in the market and while he is very much the standout player in it and one of only four players in the reduced field to have won a major, his very recent form hasn’t been great and he has spoken about how hard it has been to motivate himself again after his win at The Masters so I’m keen to swerve him.
Shane Lowry should have won here in 2016 but coughed up a three shot lead in the final round. I expect him to go well but that is factored into the price. I actually think this is a market where the value is down the list where Matthew Fitzpatrick is my man. He is very solid from tee to green in terms of hitting fairways and greens and he has a good feel and imagination around the greens. Even though he won this tournament three years ago he goes in unnoticed despite his top 10 at the USPGA Championship last month. All-rounders go well here and Fitzpatrick is one of those. I think he’s a solid price at 14/1 with the appealing each way terms.
Top Australasian Player
There are seven players from Australia and New Zealand teeing it up at Oakmont this week with two of the players on show winners on the PGA Tour this season in Min Woo Lee and Ryan Fox. Jason Day, Adam Scott, Cameron Davis and the LIV pair of Cameron Smith and Marc Leishman make up a field in which Lee is the favourite to come out on top.
Lee will be fair game with his length but Ryan Fox is the man for me here. He denied me a winner with Sam Burns last week but the way he drives the ball he is going to be well down most of the holes and if he drives it well he can attack some of these greens. If he misses fairways he is strong enough to get out of it and that is the question for some of the others in this group because everyone will miss these fairways from time to time. Fox is comfortable in the wind, playing the golf of his life and looks fair value at 17/4.
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Top Danish Player
Just the four players tee it up in the Top Danish player market this week with the DP World Tour quartet of Thorbjorn Olesen, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus Hojgaard and Niklas Norgaard Miller the four men who will be looking to come out on top in their own mini leaderboard over the four days.
The latter three all have the length you would think is needed to tame this beast but they can be erratic with it and so I’m happy to go for the more solid play of Olesen, especially given that he is by far the most experienced of the quartet when it comes to majors. His US Open history isn’t fantastic but he has a top six finish at The Masters in his career which is encouraging and his touch on the greens should serve him well here. Olesen has two top 10s on the PGA Tour this season, shot three rounds of par or better at the USPGA Championship and opened up with a 61 in Canada last week so there is more than enough to think that he can lead home the Danish charge here.
To Make the Cut
The penultimate market that I like the look of this week is the one to make the cut. Incredibly, every player in the field is priced up for this market. It isn’t one that I particularly like getting involved in, or bet on too often, but I’ve had two majors where I’ve had a number of side market chasers make the cut but fall away over the weekend so I’m going to change tact and take two players to make the cut and then not worry what they do from Saturday onwards.
It is the French pair that I like here. Victor Perez and Matthieu Pavon are the two players in question. Both men are very good with the driver which bodes well around here. Perez has won the Dunhill Links in the past so the breeze and the sloped greens won’t be an issue for him. He was in the top 10 in Canada last week which was a good prep for this and I think this is a test that suits so at odds against him to make the cut makes plenty of sense. Pavon is a former winner around Torrey Pines which plays long and hard like this one and he was bang in the mix at the USPGA Championship last month before the final round caught him out. He is also odds against so if one makes the cut here we are in profit for the market but both of them doing it makes good money and I expect both French players, who drive the ball very well, to put themselves in position to be here over the weekend.
To Miss the Cut
The alternative option to the make the cut market is the one to miss it. Some firms have priced up every player in the field in this market while others have just selected the favourites to win the tournament. The first thing to note is the cut is the top 60 players and ties rather than the top 70 which we see in use at the USPGA Championship and The Open.
I’m not going to go through everyone in the field for this market but the one player that interests me is Rory McIlroy. He has given off enough red flags in interviews about motivation struggles and our own eyes tell us he has struggled with the driver at the USPGA Championship, where he only made the cut on the number at a course he excels on, and in Canada last week. The world number two missed the cut here in 2016 and generally doesn’t go that well on firm and fast tracks. The rain isn’t due to arrive in this part of the world until the weekend whereby it might be too late for McIlroy.
Tips
Back M.Fitzpatrick Top Great Britain & Irish Player (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with Boylesports (1/4 1-3)
Back him here:
Back R.Fox Top Australasian Player for a 2/10 stake at 5.25 with Spreadex
Back T.Olesen Top Danish Player for a 2/10 stake at 3.40 with Spreadex
Back V.Perez to make the cut for a 3/10 stake at 2.10 with Sky Bet
Back M.Pavon to make the cut for a 3/10 stake at 2.50 with Spreadex
Back R.McIlroy to miss the cut for a 2/10 stake at 3.75 with Spreadex
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