Four weeks after Scottie Scheffler won the second major of the year at the USPGA Championship, the third elite event of 2025 takes place when the great and the good of the game of golf head to Oakmont for the US Open.
Bryson DeChambeau will be the man assigned the task of attempting to successfully defend the title this week. He will look to complete that assignment on a different track to the one he won on but against an equally as strong field.
Recent Winners
2024 – Bryson DeChambeau
2023 – Wyndham Clark
2022 – Matthew Fitzpatrick
2021 – Jon Rahm
2020 – Bryson DeChambeau
2019 – Gary Woodland
2018 – Brooks Koepka
2017 – Brooks Koepka
2016 – Dustin Johnson
2015 – Jordan Spieth
The Course
We head to Oakmont Country Club in Pennsylvania for the tournament this week. This is the first time the event has been staged here since 2016 when it was Dustin Johnson who prevailed by three strokes. He carded -4 for the 72 holes which is the second highest winning score since 2013 which shows how tough this par-70 track can play. Johnson was one of just four players who finished the week under par back in 2016 so we’re probably not looking for a particularly low winning score this week.
This is a very tough course, not just because it measures 7,372 yards. The rough is always fairly thick here and there are plenty of videos doing the rounds on social media to confirm that is the case again this week. The big test on this course though is the greens. They are full of slopes and hollows and you can often get weird bounces if you land approach shots onto the greens. Scrambling is a massive thing here but the fact that the fairways are going to be missed bigger hitters have more of a chance of getting errant tee shots either on or around the greens while the shorter hitters will be chipping out.
The Field
As we know by now, the major tournaments are the only ones where the LIV players and the PGA Tour and DP World Tour stars compete in the same events so this will be the third time where we have an elite field on show. Scottie Scheffler is the world number one and the USPGA Championship winner while Rory McIlroy, The Masters champion, is also in the field, as is the defending champion Bryson DeChambeau and the man who triumphed here at Oakmont the last time the tournament was here in the form of Dustin Johnson.
Scheffler leads the American charge which also includes the likes of Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and the man who lost out in the play-off in Canada last week in Sam Burns. The European challenge in addition to McIlroy comes in the form of Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland and Sepp Straka while Hideki Matsuyama, Ryan Fox, Corey Conners and Joaquin Niemann are among the leading lights from among the international stars.
Market Leaders
The world number one Scottie Scheffler is yet to get his hands on the US Open title but he is very much the favourite to win this time around. He is no bigger than 14/5 to follow up his win at the USPGA Championship with another here. It is hard to go against him based on his win at Quail Hollow and his record here without winning, where he has three top 10s in seven starts, being solid enough, but Oakmont can make good shots look bad so I don’t want to be on at this price.
The defending champion Bryson DeChambeau is shortening all the time as he looks to become the first man since Brooks Koepka in 2018 to make a successful defence of the title. He comes here off the back of a solid effort on the LIV Tour last week and he’ll be the longest in the field off the tee which helps too. I refuse to believe that the winner here won’t have displayed an exceptional short game though and that is where the 2024 champion can be found wanting. I wouldn’t want to be in huge opposition to him but there are enough reasons where he can be seen as short enough.
Jon Rahm is now into the third favourite for the tournament. Rahm has won this event before so he knows how to prevail in the USGA setups and he is an 11/1 shot to land a second US Open crown this week. He has been in exceptional form on the LIV Tour and was tied for the lead deep into Sunday at the USPGA Championship last month but then faltered on the back nine. If you can forgive and forget that, which I can’t having been on him there, then there is nothing to suggest he can’t land the money here.
Rory McIlroy would have been favourite or second favourite for this after The Masters but he is having publicised issues with his driver and that certainly isn’t what is required around this place. He just shot one of the worst rounds of his career on a similar albeit slightly easier layout in Canada last week and it would take a massive turnaround in a short space of time if he is to go from that effort to winning the third major of the year. He is good enough but that driver needs to cooperate and quickly. He isn’t for me even though at 12/1 he is probably double the price he was a couple of months ago.
Main Bets
There is no doubt in my mind that this is a test which suits Ludvig Aberg. The doubts heading into the week were about his health as he has gone very quiet since he won the Genesis Invitational but the last two weeks have eased those concerns and therefore he has to be the first main bet this week. The best club in the Aberg bag is the driver and that is definitely no bad thing this week but he is also very good at putting on large, fast greens, as he showed when he won at Torrey Pines earlier in the season and he has been second and seventh in two goes around Augusta. The Swede was in the top 20 at The Memorial and in Canada last week, both of which were good preps for this week and at 22/1 he’s my first main bet here.
Corey Conners is eighth on the PGA Tour for driving accuracy this season and if you play this course from the fairway you have a much better chance of scoring on it. He isn’t the longest in the field but the fairways are firm enough that he’ll get some ground help when he finds them. He is also an accurate iron player which is another good box to tick here and there is no reason why he won’t go well in the wind which can sweep around this exposed layout having twice won the Texas Open. This season Conners has finished third in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, sixth at Sawgrass, eighth in The Masters, T19 in the PGA Championship and T25 at The Memorial. He has played tough events well this season and that bodes well for a big showing from the Canadian here.
Outsiders
As this is a major and the only tournament of the week I’ll allow myself four outsider picks with the first one being Keegan Bradley. Bradley is already a major champion which is a big thing because we know he can win a tournament of this kind. He also sits third in the strokes gained from tee to green on the PGA Tour this season and that is a huge thing because that is where this tournament will be won and lost. Going into the year I was a little concerned about backing Bradley with all his Ryder Cup commitments but he has performed really well this year so I’m happy to go with him here. Bradley has four top 10 finishes on the year, three of which have been at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, PGA Championship and The Memorial – all tough tournaments. He’ll play this course from the fairway as much as anyone and that will give him a good chance of going well here.
I took Harris English in the last major at the USPGA Championship and he paid out on a place for me at a monster price. He’s only half the price here but he is probably even more suited to this place than he was at Quail Hollow because he is another excellent tee to green player, one which putts well on tough greens and performs well in hard events. He won the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines earlier in the season, was T12 at The Masters, T2 at the PGA and T12 at The Memorial. Many are suggesting that The Memorial was set up similar to here so that bodes well and I’m happy to have him onside for a second straight major.
Cameron Young drove the ball brilliantly in Canada last week and walking up to his second shot on the last hole of the tournament he was the favourite to make the playoff at the very least but landed a horror lie with his approach shot and ended up missing out by a couple of shots but there was enough to suggest that this tee to green monster could have a big week here. It obviously isn’t ideal that he has never won at PGA Tour level but Wyndham Clark had only won once prior to landing this a couple of years ago. Only five players drove the ball better than Young last week and this is a player who has twice finished second in a major, one of which was in The Open so the links feel to this place won’t sway him from competing. Young has actually turned into one of the better long putters on the PGA Tour this term and there will be plenty of those this week. If his long game remains dialled in then he shouldn’t be too far away.
My final pick is a bit of a hunch but if Dustin Johnson has a good week driving the golf ball then he could really put himself into positions where he doesn’t have to be as defensive as some around here and if he can be in contention around the weekend when the rain comes he could be a major force. Of course, he has to drive it well and that isn’t a guarantee. His record in majors since he left for LIV is ordinary at best. He has two top 10s in majors since then and has missed the cut in five of the 12 in that period, including both this season. He was T10 in Los Angeles a couple of years ago though but he comes here off the back of a third top 10 of the season on the LIV Tour last week and so there are signs that having done nothing for a while that his game is beginning to come back. He won by three here nine years ago which was really four because of that one shot penalty in the final round. He is the kind of person who won’t let the course randomness get to him. I admit it is a long shot but if he plays well then DJ still has enough about him to make a mockery of a huge price.
Tips
Back L.Aberg to win US Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 23.00 with Unibet (1/5 1-7)
Back C.Conners to win US Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-10)
Back him here:
Back K.Bradley to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back H.English to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Young to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Unibet (1/5 1-7)
Back D.Johnson to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 161.00 with Spreadex (1/5 1-7)
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