The final of the men’s US Open will take place on what will be a poignant and remembering Sunday in New York on the 21st anniversary of the shocking scenes of 9/11 and it will do so with Casper Ruus facing Carlos Alcaraz.
These two are not just doing battle for their first Grand Slam title of their careers but the winner will also be the number one ranked player in the world for the first time as well so there is absolutely everything on the line in this one.
Casper Ruud
Such has been the improvement in the game of the Norwegian over the last 18 months or so, it is no longer a surprise to see him in the latter stages of a tournament of this kind. This will be the second Grand Slam final he has been a part of in 2022 having previously made the concluding game of the French Open back in June. He lost that to Rafael Nadal but will look to go one better against the other leading Spaniard in the game right now.
Ruud has had a fairly comfortable path through to this final. The only times his run has been difficult is when he has made it so. That is a bit of a concern because you would think if he is struggling to get over the line in the earlier matches then the finish line could be a big obstacle in the final. In the moments where he doesn’t see the finish line he has certainly shown us that he has the game to put down a real challenge here.
Carlos Alcaraz
12 months on from really launching his career inside the Arthur Ashe Stadium, Carlos Alcaraz now goes in search of the title which would rubber stamp that he is the future of the game. This is the first time he has been in a Grand Slam final but I think everyone knew watching his run to the last eight a year ago that it was only going to be a matter of time before he was competing in matches on these occasions.
Alcaraz has certainly had to come through the hard way this week. His last three matches have all gone five sets and he’s been on court for almost 14 hours in that time too but the thinking that he will slow down and feel tired has been wrong so far and with the hype and adrenalin of this occasion it would be a surprise if he isn’t at it here. If Alcaraz is 100% he has every chance here because his movement is insane, he has winners from both sides and he will electrify the crowd and get them right behind him.
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Head-to-head
In competitive play these two have met twice in their careers with Alcaraz winning on both occasions and doing so in straight sets. Ruud did beat the Spaniard in an exhibition at Hurlingham in the summer but what we can take from that remains to be seen. The Spaniard won 62 64 in Marbella last year and the 75 64 in Miami earlier this year. That contest feels extremely relevant here because it was a final like this and it was on the same surface as they will play on here too so history points to the Spaniard.
Betting
I think that Miami match is extremely significant and I expect a similar result here. I think the sets will generally be pretty tight but I just think Carlos Alcaraz will have too much over the course of five sets against Casper Ruud. I was concerned with the physical aspect of the Spaniard heading into his semi-final but he showed the strength of youth and if anything looked stronger than Frances Tiafoe the longer that went on which is pretty incredible.
Ruud will look to keep Alcaraz back behind the base line to set his shots up in this final but that comes with plenty of risk and I would expect Alcaraz to be able to do enough on the Ruud serve to always have that under pressure. This might actually be a fine with a few service breaks but when they add up all the numbers I think Alcaraz will have a little bit in hand when he walks to the net to shake hands as a winner.
Tips
Back C.Alcaraz (-3.5 games) to beat C.Ruud for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with BetVictor
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