The US Open women’s final headlines the action in New York on Saturday evening when the world number Iga Swiatek takes on the rising star Ons Jabeur in a really good looking clash inside the Arthur Ashe Stadium.
These two women have been involved in some battles to make it to this stage but having both already competed in a Grand Slam final already this season they will know all about the occasion they will grace.
Iga Swiatek
The world number one headed into this tournament as the runaway leader in the rankings but with a few concerns over her chances because of the negative noises she was making about the balls and things like that. To be fair, she hasn’t really played her best tennis at any stage of this tournament but when she has been involved in crunch situations she has held herself together better than her opponents and has made this final.
You get the sense the Polish ace has been ready to be put out of her misery for the last week but only one opponent is left to do it. The big positive for Swiatek heading into this final is that she has won a couple of Grand Slams before and although they were both at Roland Garros where she is becoming unplayable, she knows she can get it done in the biggest finals in the sport. She also knows she has beaten some of the best players in the sport without her best tennis this week so if that turns up she will be tough to beat.
Ons Jabeur
Ons Jabeur arrived at this tournament still in a bit of a slump after losing the Wimbledon final she was favourite to win. Her previous history in this event wasn’t all that great so there were lots of concerns over whether she would be able to find some form and come through. He has shown she could, although I think it is relevant to suggest that the three opponents who would have had a chance to beat her just never showed up against her for whatever reason.
We know the Tunisian wasn’t happy with her form during her quarter final where she came ever so close to smashing a racquet, which is unheard of for her, and we can’t really judge her semi-final too much because it was plainly obvious that Carolina Garcia was consumed by the nerves of the occasion. We do know Jabeur is a top class player when she is at her best though but you fancy she’ll need her best to win this.
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Head-to-head
These two women have met four times in their career and the way that Iga Swiatek has been playing over the last 12 months it is to the credit of Ons Jabeur that they are tied at 2-2 in those meetings. They have twice met on a hard court and they have split those matches as well. Swiatek won a deciding set in Washington in 2019 while Jabeur picked up a straight sets win in Cincinnati 12 months ago. The only time they have previously met in a final was in Rome earlier this year when Jabeur won just four games in a pretty one-sided contest.
Betting
This feels like it is going to be a close final. I understand that Ons Jabeur hasn’t won a Grand Slam and that it might be worth favouring Iga Swiatek who has won one but in the final the Tunisian played at Wimbledon it wasn’t as though she didn’t turn up or the occasion got the better of her, she just met a woman who hit cleanly and played better in the conditions on the day. I don’t see Swiatek out hitting Jabeur here so this final could very well come down to exactly whether the underdog holds it together in the tighter moments.
It is blatantly clear that Swiatek has not played anything like her best tennis in this fortnight. She has admitted it even as recently as in her presser after the semi-final win but it just shows how far clear of the WTA field she is. I don’t think she’s as far ahead of Jabeur though and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this final yields the Arab star her first major title but getting over the line could become an issue when the finish line arrives so rather than take Jabeur to win I’ll side with her with the 3.5 game start.
Tips
Back O.Jabeur (+3.5 games) to beat I.Swiatek for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with BetVictor
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