The US Open concludes in New York on Sunday when the men’s singles final will take place inside the Arthur Ashe Stadium as the top two in the world battle it out when Jannik Sinner faces Carlos Alcaraz for a third Grand Slam conclusion in succession.
These two have shared the last two Grand Slam titles beating each other in the final so their trilogy match comes here and based on the fortnight so far it would be foolish to expect to see anything but a cracking contest.
Jannik Sinner
The world number one Jannik Sinner is a win away from making a successful defence of his title and in the process claiming three of the four Grand Slams on offer in the calendar year. When you consider that he was two sets up in the final of the one he didn’t win, clearly there is a case to be made that Sinner is the man to beat in this contest. That is further the case when you add into the equation that the only hard court match that Sinner has lost this season was the Cincinnati final when he retired five games in because of illness.
There has been the odd time that the Italian has been vulnerable this week though. Denis Shapovalov had him on the ropes in the third round and Felix Auger-Aliassime was troubling him at a set each in the semi-final. Sinner had treatment from a physio in that match so you wonder if the schedule is catching up with him. Nevertheless, it is going to take something very special to beat the man who was too good for everyone here last year and has been so far this year.
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz will go into this final looking to win the title for the first time since 2022 and having won the Cincinnati Open in the lead up to the competition he will certainly feel he is entitled to be the champion here. Alcaraz won the clay court Grand Slam this season but then lost the one you would probably have favoured him in at Wimbledon so it will be interesting to see what the mercurial and energetic Spaniard comes up with here.
It has looked like a different Alcaraz this fortnight. There was no easing his way into the tournament and having to suffer a scare early on like we saw in the French Open and at Wimbledon. He has clearly meant business from the outset and having his golf on days off has kept him relaxed and in a good place. The way he constructed his demolition of Novak Djokovic in the semi-final showed that he isn’t here to come second again.
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Head-to-head
These two have met on 15 previous occasions and are becoming regular foes. It is Carlos Alcaraz who holds a significant 10-5 advantage which includes winning six of their last seven matches dating back to the beginning of last year. Alcaraz holds a comfortable lead between the two on a hard court, leading that particular surface battle 6-2 and in finals the Spaniard holds the edge as well coming out on top in four of the six that they have played. This will be the second time that they have met in the US Open with Alcaraz winning a five set epic in the quarter final en route to the title in 2022.
Betting
Jannik Sinner is becoming a real force to be reckoned with on a hard court but there is no ignoring the history between these two that suggests that it is a surface that Carlos Alcaraz tends to thrive on when the two meet on it. Even if we forget the Cincinnati final when Sinner looked very ill, the Spaniard still leads 5-2 on the surface and that is a big enough sample size for us to think that Alcaraz has the necessary answers when the two do battle on a hard court.
With that in mind, Alcaraz to win the match at odds against appeals. I wouldn’t put anyone off enhancing the price with Alcaraz to win and both players to win a set but I’m quite comfortable to have the 3-0 Alcaraz on side, even though I would be very surprised if it landed. The Sinner medical timeout in the semi-final just makes me wonder if the disrupted preparation after that illness in Cincinnati is catching up with him so I’ll play it simple and take Alcaraz to continue his wonderful record in this particular matchup on this surface.
Tips
Back C.Alcaraz to beat J.Sinner for a 3/10 stake at 2.10 with Betway
