We have taken a look at the men’s outright US Open and now it is the turn of the women to take our attention ahead of the final Grand Slam of the season getting underway in New York on Sunday in what feels like a very open competition.
Aryna Sabalenka took this title down a year ago and the world number one will be here looking to make a successful defence of the crown but there are plenty of women who are playing well enough to dethrone the Belarusian.
Recent Winners
2024 – Aryna Sabalenka
2023 – Coco Gauff
2022 – Iga Swiatek
2021 – Emma Raducanu
2020 – Naomi Osaka
2019 – Bianca Andreescu
2018 – Naomi Osaka
2017 – Sloane Stephens
2016 – Angelique Kerber
2015 – Flavia Pennetta
The Format
The normal Grand Slam rules apply to the women’s draw too in that 128 ladies qualify for the tournament and are placed in a knockout draw which was revealed on Friday. The entire tournament is the best of three sets with a match tiebreak in the final set at 6-6 should it be needed. The winner is crowned on the second Saturday evening inside the Arthur Ashe Stadium assuming the weather cooperates.
Top Quarter
As with the men’s draw, the defending champion is also the world number one and at the top of the draw bracket as a result of that so Aryna Sabalenka heads up the top quarter. She is due to meet the woman who made two Grand Slam finals last year in Jasmine Paolini in the quarter final but this is a stacked quarter with McCartney Kessler, former finalist Leylah Fernandez, Elise Mertens, Clara Tauson, Elena Rybakina and Veronika Kudermetova the other seeds in the section.
What makes this a really stacked quarter is the fact that there are two former Grand Slam champions in among the unseeded players in it. One of those, Emma Raducanu, has won this tournament in the past and she is joined by the past winner of Wimbledon in Marketa Vondrousova. Magda Linette, Alexandra Eala, Lulu Sun, Marie Bouzkova and Cristina Bucsa are some of the other players to catch the eye in this section.
Second Quarter
The home star Jessica Pegula is yet to put her world ranking to use to win a major but she’ll attempt to win her home Grand Slam from this part of the draw where she is the top seed. The young ace Mirra Andreeva will be her potential quarter final opponent looking to maintain the Pegula drought. The six other seeds in this section are Jelena Ostapenko, the Canadian Open winner Victoria Mboko, home star Emma Navarro, former Olympic champion Belinda Bencic, Liudmila Samsonova and Dayan Yastremska.
There are former Grand Slam winners who aren’t seeded in this second quarter of the draw as well with Victoria Azarenka and Barbora Krejcikova having both landed two majors in the peak of their careers. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is another big name who has found her way into this quarter while others include Taylor Townsend, Olga Danilovic and Caty McNally with the latter two having already played in the mixed doubles this week.
Third Quarter
The 2023 champion Coco Gauff will be looking to get her home title back over the course of this fortnight and she will begin her bid to do that as the top seed in the third quarter of the draw where she is on course for a quarter final against the Australian Open winner Madison Keys who is looking to bookend her year with Grand Slam titles. Magdalena Frech, the former champion Naomi Osaka, Daria Kasatkina, Karolina Muchova, Linda Noskova and Marta Kostyuk are the other seeds in this section.
As with the other two quarters above we have two more former Grand Slam champions in this section and it will be the last major for the former Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova and probably the last for the home superstar Venus Williams. It is also the final Grand Slam in the career of Caroline Garcia and all three are unseeded in this quarter. Others to note include British pair Katie Boulter and Francesca Jones, Sorana Cirstea, Katerina Siniakova, Peyton Stearns and Donna Vekic.
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Bottom Quarter
The Wimbledon champion Iga Swiatek will go in search of successive majors from the bottom quarter of the draw where she is obviously the leading light. She could be involved in a repeat of the final from SW19 in the quarter final as Amanda Anisimova is the next highest ranked seed in this section. Sofia Kenin, Elina Svitolina, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Diana Shnaider, Beatriz Haddad Maia and Anna Kalinskaya are the other seeds in this part of the draw.
This is the only quarter without an unseeded former Grand Slam winner in it but there are a few players who have gone well in majors in the past who are here. Tatjana Maria and Maria Sakkari have both been to the last four at this level while Lois Boisson did exactly that at the French Open earlier in the year. Sonay Kartal provides the British interest in the quarter with Danielle Collins and Ashlyn Krueger two home stars looking to go deep.
Outright Betting
Madison Keys did me a turn in the opening Grand Slam of the season and I’ll back her to finish the campaign in the same fashion because she looks to have found a nice part of the draw to profit from. Coco Gauff is the other main seed in her section but there is absolutely no guarantee that she will get the better of the former champion Naomi Osaka were they to meet before then. Keys doesn’t run into anyone of that level and I get the impression that she is bubbling under the surface and is ready to break out again. Keys is a former finalist here and she has been to two other semi-finals so playing in front of a home crowd doesn’t hold her back. Now she appears here as a major champion for the first time I think she is worthy of support this fortnight.
I backed Emma Navarro to go well in this tournament a year ago and she let me down in the semi-final but at a three-figure price I can’t avoid another go on the American to get the job done here. She comes into the tournament in nothing like as good as a form line as she had back then but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing as it will dampen expectations. Navarro has won a tournament on the hard courts this year and she is local to this part of the world so she won’t lack for inspiration or motivation. She is in the Pegula and Andreeva quarter which feels like it could open up and I’ll pay to see if that is the case.
Quarter Betting
That leaves us with the first and fourth quarters where we haven’t got outright bets. That is done on purpose because obviously Aryna Sabalenka will be a problem in the top quarter and Iga Swiatek will be trouble in the bottom one but I’m happy to take both on with small bets. Emma Raducanu has won this tournament in the past and she has had a couple of titanic showdowns with Sabalenka this summer which has suggested that the Briton wouldn’t be a complete no hoper were the two to meet again here. If Sabalenka doesn’t win this quarter then someone at a decent price easily could. 9/1 on a former champion here who is playing her best tennis since then coming in feels a big price to me, especially as she can’t face the world number one until the last eight.
In the bottom quarter Swiatek feels like a worthy favourite but she certainly isn’t an impossible to beat one and I think there is value in this section. I like Elina Svitolina here. She knows how to peak for a Grand Slam and hits the ball about as cleanly as anyone when she gets going. She also has an excellent defensive game which is important, as is her win over Amanda Anisimova in Montreal given that they could face off in the last 16. The Ukrainian can’t face Swiatek until the quarter final by which time there is plenty that could have happened. Svitolina feels a big price at 14/1 with her game in conditions that should suit.
Tips
Back M.Keys to win US Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Sky Bet (1/2 1-2)
Back E.Navarro to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Coral (1/2 1-2)
Back E.Raducanu to win 1st Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 with William Hill (1/2 1-2)
Back E.Svitolina to win 4th Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with William Hill (1/2 1-2)
Back them here:
