We’re down to the Last 16 of the US Open out in New York and the top half of both the men’s and women’s draws will be played out on Sunday in the Big Apple.
The shocks have continued to flow since my last blog with Rafael Nadal, Viktor Troicki, Andrea Petkovic and Angelique Kerber all being sent packing by lesser players on Saturday UK time.
Despite all the shocks we’ve seen and even though there are only eight singles matches across the two draws on Sunday we’ve still got some excellent players on show including both number one seeds Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams. There is also plenty of flair on show with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Eugenie Bouchard slated to play.
With so relatively few matches the betting potential is starting to lessen but thankfully there are a couple that stand out for me on Sunday and I’m going to take one in each draw.
I’m already on Marin Cilic to win his quarter and he is closing in on a position to do that so I’ll take a watching brief on his match but I’m very interested in the Feliciano Lopez vs Fabio Fognini match from a betting perspective.
Lopez is an ever shortening favourite and I can only imagine that is on fitness grounds rather than tennis ones. Admittedly Lopez has a tricky serve to negotiate but Fognini has already faced a heavy serve against Steve Johnson and come through without any trouble and he’s taken out Rafael Nadal so a left handed serve doesn’t cause him too many concerns either.
If Fognini can get the Lopez serve back consistently then I really think he can come through this one. He has much the better all court game on either wing and he has a decent return game as we’ve seen in the tournament so far. Fatigue could be an issue I guess after a monster last match but he’s not on before 4pm local time here so he’s had plenty of time to recover.
Feliciano Lopez struggled against a good returner in Mardy Fish and Fish would have won that match if a little lack in conditioning and luck hadn’t let him down. Lopez cruised past Milos Raonic in the last round but the Canadian wasn’t at the races at all there. Fognini should be and at the price I’ll take the Italian here.
In the women’s draw all eyes will be on one match as the master takes on the apprentice when Serena Williams continues her bid for the Serena Slam when she takes on the rising star Madison Keys.
Serena has been really tested in this tournament so far and had to bring out her very best just to survive her last match. She has been starting matches very slowly and her big booming serve is yet to really fire in the tournament so Keys will have plenty of confidence on what she’s seen from Serena so far.
Keys is a mini Serena in many ways. She has a heavy serve and some powerful groundstrokes and if she can put it together on the big occasion from the beginning she can make this close and turn this into an uneasy afternoon’s work for Serena and potentially another epic all-American contest.
I’m not one to back against Serena in a match and I think she’ll get it done here but I certainly think Keys has the ability and perhaps more importantly the power to stay within 5.5 games of the woman who is potentially her idol.
In the other women’s matches Ekaterina Makarova is closing in on landing my punt on her to win her quarter and she’s a massive favourite to see off Kristina Mladenovic while Venus is expected to cruise past Anett Kontaveit.
In the other match I liked the idea of Eugenie Bouchard to come past Roberta Vinci but the fact the Canadian had to pull out of both doubles tournaments on Saturday because she had an accident in the locker room and isn’t guaranteed to be fit to play here kind of puts me off that match so it is just Fognini and Keys for me.
Back F.Fognini to beat F.Lopez for a 4/10 stake at 2.30 with Boylesports
Back M.Keys (+5.5 games) to beat S.Williams for a 4/10 stake at 1.80 with Bet365
