The USPGA Championship tees off at Quail Hollow on Thursday with the first round of the tournament probably more eagerly anticipated than ever considering the amount of star names who head to Charlotte in excellent form.
The aim for everyone will be to be on top of the leaderboard come Sunday evening but to get there a decent start is often advantageous and that will be the immediate box that the field are trying to tick when they see the course in competitive conditions for the first time this week.
First Round Leader
As ever when we do first round previews in majors we look at the first round leader market which it has to be said is very competitive this week. There might be some value to be had too when you consider that the world number one, Masters winner and defending champion form the marquee three ball when Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele tee off alongside each other. In terms of the weather, we know that the course is going to play soft. The greens were flooded earlier in the week and there is rain in the forecast in the early hours. The wind picks up a little the longer the day goes on but nothing that will cause too many problems so we can’t really whittle the field down too much.
That is fine with me though because once I saw the rain arrive earlier in the week I only wanted to be on Bryson DeChambeau here. I said in my outright preview that I think he will win this week but at 8/1 he was a little short but he is a much better betting proposition at 20/1 to lead after 18 holes. When you look at the DeChambeau record of coming out of the traps it is very encouraging. The US Open champion has led after 18 holes in the last two LIV events and he was fifth at the conclusion of the opening round of The Masters. Add in two more top seven finishes after round one of the US Open and a solid record in this event then with soft conditions which should suit him down to a tee, the 20/1 on him to lead after the Thursday play looks perfectly acceptable.
Thursday 3 Balls
As ever in a major championship, the field will go out in three balls in the opening round and those groups are in two waves, a morning and an afternoon one, off the first and tenth tee with that marquee group I mentioned above reaching the tenth tee to start their tournament at 13.22 BST. The other leading group in the morning go out at 13.00 BST when Jon Rahm is out alongside Patrick Cantlay and Matthew Fitzpatrick. There are some really good groups in the afternoon wave but the featured ones are the ones involving former winners Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa who are out with Dustin Johnson off the first tee at 18.14 BST while Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed and Ludvig Aberg go off the same tee at 18.25 BST. Markets are up for all of the groups and there are three bets which are pretty obvious that I like the look of.
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John Parry/Justin Hicks/Ryan Fox
Match tees off at 12.05 BST
The first group off the tenth tee this week sees the last man into the field by right in Ryan Fox going up against the DP World Tour player John Parry and the veteran Justin Hicks in a three ball where the Kiwi should be absolutely dominant.
The danger is that there is a comedown from winning the Myrtle Beach Classic last week but he kind of came from the clouds to win so it wasn’t like he was in contention all week so I’m hoping that won’t be the case. The thing to take out from that win was his post-round interview where he claimed Quail Hollow suits him. The rain softened fairways certainly will and his extra length should be too much for John Parry, who is ranked 122 for driving distance on the DP World Tour, and Justin Hicks who at 50 isn’t going to trouble Fox for length. The Kiwi is only 5/6 to win this three ball but when you factor in the lack of opposition that is a more than acceptable price.
Kurt Kitayama/Nic Ishee/Alex Noren
Match tees off at 12.22 BST
The one thing I like about betting on the three balls in the opening round of the USPGA Championship is that we can find groups where there is a PGA professional involved which in most circumstances reduces it to a two ball in terms of betting winners. That looks to be the case with the third group off the first tee when Kurt Kitayama and Alex Noren are joined by Nic Ishee.
Ishee is a PGA professional who played this tournament in 2022 at Southern Hills and carded rounds of 78 and 75 for a +13 total and it would take a massive improvement on that for him to be a factor here. Noren played his first tournament of the year at the Truist Championship last week after suffering with neck issues so really Kitayama only has to stand up straight to win here. He has the length to take advantage of these soft fairways and comes in here in decent enough form after finishing fifth at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He was fourth in this tournament in 2023 at Oak Hill. He opened up with a level par 70 there and level par here should be more than enough at odds against.
Keith Mitchell/Bob Sowards/Adam Hadwin
Match tees off at 17.25 BST
The final bet I like on Thursday is a double which just stands out to me and the first leg of it comes in the opening group out on the tenth tee in the afternoon wave when Keith Mitchell goes out alongside Adam Hadwin and the senior Bob Sowards.
Sowards has competed in two PGA Championships and missed the cut in both of them and at 56 he isn’t likely to be getting any better now and is unlikely to have the length needed on a dry Quail Hollow let alone a near enough waterlogged one. We can take him out of the equation and Adam Hadwin isn’t a much stronger challenger when you consider he isn’t the longest off the tee either and has one top 25 over the course of the season in solo play. I’m absolutely no fan of Mitchell after he coughed up a win with my money on a year or so back but there is no getting away from the fact that Mitchell is starting events well. His last five opening rounds have been 65, 64, 64, 64 and 61 and while his scores get progressively worse in the main another Thursday like that will be more than good enough here. His long game is solid enough to dominate this group and he looks an obvious first part of the late wave double.
Jason Dufner/Michael Thorbjornsen/Shaun Micheel
Match tees off at 19.04 BST
The other part of the double comes much later in the afternoon wave where the two former champions Jason Dufner and Shaun Micheel go out alongside the superstar amateur Michael Thorbjornsen who is starting to click into gear in the pro ranks.
Thorbjornsen is loaded with power so that is immediately a positive here but he has put some results together in recent times too. He was second at the Corales Puntacana Championship which turns his season around. Last season he was second in the John Deere Classic and had top 10s at the Sanderson Farms Championship and the RSM Classic where he opened with a 63 and a 64 respectively. He could be erratic on some holes but anything around level par should be enough to land this group. Dufner has missed the cut in two of his three events this season and finished T75 in the other. His best days are well behind him while Micheel hasn’t played a competitive tournament this year and isn’t going to be suited by these conditions either. This should be a penalty kick for Thorbjornsen and doubled with Mitchell we have a decent punt.
Tips
Back B.DeChambeau First Round Leader (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-6)
Back R.Fox to beat J.Parry & J.Hicks for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with William Hill
Back him here:
Back K.Kitayama to beat N.Ishee & A.Noren for a 3/10 stake at 2.05 with Unibet
Back K.Mitchell to beat A.Hadwin & B.Sowards x M.Thorbjornsen to beat J.Dufner & S.Micheel for a 3/10 stake at 2.47 with Bet365
