The first round of the final major of the year (USPGA Championship) always gets plenty of attention. Not least because it is a rare time we see the three reigning major champions on the course at the same time. They are traditionally paired together for the first two rounds.
Before we get stuck into the three balls for the opening day there is the ever popular first round leader market. We can get stuck into players we think might go well but may be unable to sustain it over the course of the week.
First Round Leader
This is the fourth time we have gone hard at this market. As with the other three times we’ve attacked it I have to stress the value in looking at the weather forecast.
If we look at the forecast in New Jersey on Thursday it is calm in the morning with the threat of storms and winds later in the day. With that in mind I’ll focus on the early starters here given that they look likely to have the pick of conditions.
Now we need to remember the profile of player that we have been aiming at all week. I like solid drivers who keep their ball in play but who can get the ball to the hole and preferably in it. I’m not convinced we need too low a score here as back in 2005 it was just -3 that led after 18 holes.
I like to go at the value in this particular market and there are two that appeal to me at a three figure price. I’ve been keeping tabs on Keegan Bradley for a little while. He started well at both The Memorial and The Open and for much of the first round of the US Open he was looking good too and I don’t think it is going to be long before it all comes together for him.
It might be this week, it might not but the one thing those three efforts have shown us is that he has good rounds in him and given that he is out early at 8.20am local time he should get the better of conditions. He is a former winner of this tournament and I always think that gives a player a boost so at 110/1 he is worth a try.
I’m also going to have a go at the perennial fast starter Charley Hoffman who is out at the same time as Bradley but off the first tee rather than the 10th. Since March, Hoffman’s first rounds have been 64, 71, 68, 66, 67, 73, 67, 71, 72, 67, 68 and 71 so that is seven rounds in the 60s in 12 attempts and two of those in the 70s came in The Players and The Open, the latter which isn’t his style of golf at all. Even then there was nothing wrong with level par.
Hoffman is going to get the best of the conditions and for a guy who drives the ball like he does it would be no surprise to see him in the mix at the end of day one. I doubt he will sustain it as his game isn’t tip top at the minute but there is nothing wrong with him out of the gate and he’s huge at 125/1.
Thursday 3 balls
As ever in a major championship all the groups to go out are priced up this week and given the quality of the field there are some fantastic groups which will get plenty of attention. The one which will get the most is the Danny Willett, Henrik Stenson and Dustin Johnson group while Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy and Jason Day won’t be far behind neither will the Sergio Garcia, Jordan Spieth and Bubba Watson group.
There are excellent groupings everywhere you look for the crowds in New Jersey to look but as far as betting goes I’m going to focus away from them. The beauty of this tournament with the past champions and club professionals in the field is that there are a number of three balls that we can make into a match between two of the players with club pros and past it champions unlikely to offer too much.
As it goes I’m leaving the club pros alone on this opening day but I’m taking on two past champions and a veteran who looks there for the taking and who might well have other things on his mind this week.
The first group is the 7.30am local time start off the first tee as Daniel Berger is paired with David Lingmerth and Darren Clarke. Clarke and Berger are just returning from injury. Both had to pull out of The Open so just how fit either are remains to be seen. Even then I’m not convinced by their credentials here and Clarke has Ryder Cup duties to perform so he’s easily taken on.
I like the idea of an all-round game going well around here and that is what David Lingmerth possesses and this looks like a good chance for him to win his group. With Berger not having seen a golf course since he waltzed off one shot into the WGC Bridgestone he has to be rusty at best and with Clarke’s eyes elsewhere Lingmerth looks worth a punt here.
Moving ahead 20 minutes as the Wild Thing, John Daly is out with Vijay Singh and Padraig Harrington and I fancy the Fijian might be worth a go there. Vijay is another fast starter with last week’s 72 the first time in five efforts he has needed more than 70 strokes in the first round.
John Daly isn’t consistent enough to be competitive here especially on this golf course which rewards accuracy and I’m not convinced Padraig Harrington is much better suited to it and even if he is it might be too long for him. Singh’s playing partners haven’t offered up too much in recent times so if the Fijian is on form he can take this group.
Finally moving into the afternoon I just have to take on Rich Beem in the 12.45pm match. Credit to Beem for winning this tournament back in the day but that day has gone and he is only teeing it up here because he can. This group is a match between David Toms and Steve Stricker.
In fairness there isn’t a whole lot between the two in terms of their game and their profiles but there is plenty between them in consistency and current form and it is Stricker who has it all on his side. He is solid from tee to green and a wizard on the greens and even at 5/6 he looks an obvious pick here.
Tips
Back K.Bradley First Round Leader (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-6)
Back him here:
Back C.Hoffman First Round Leader (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Betfair (1/4 1-6)
Back him here:
WON – Back D.Lingmerth to beat D.Berger & D.Clarke for a 4/10 stake at 2.40 with Bet365
TIED – Back S.Stricker to beat D.Toms & R.Beem for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
Back them here:
Back V.Singh to beat P.Harrington & J.Daly for a 3/10 stake at 2.50 with Winner Sports
Back him here:
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