The PGA Tour heads back into Texas this week for the Valero Texas Open which has a new slot in the calendar. Usually this tournament is held earlier in the year but it has been moved beyond The Masters to give it a bigger feeling in the schedule.
You would have to say that movement has worked if we judge it solely on the strength of the field assembled this week. We’re in the time of year where huge events are coming and going and more are on the horizon but a really packed quality field has been put together here.
Recent champions
2015 – Jimmy Walker
2014 – Steven Bowditch
2013 – Martin Laird
2012 – Ben Curtis
2011 – Brendan Steele
2010 – Adam Scott
2009 – Zach Johnson
2008 – Zach Johnson
2007 – Justin Leonard
2006 – Eric Axley
Course
TPC San Antonio continues to host the tournament which has been held here since 2010. The winning scores here aren’t the lowest which tells us the course is tough and that is because of the atmospheric conditions where the winds have always played a part. This year the rains have impacted on the course so it may well play much easier.
TPC San Antonio is a par 72 which can measure 7,435 yards so the course is attackable when the wind doesn’t blow. Statistically it is hard to get a feel for the place because there has been no consistency in any of the events. The weather has been so changeable and now the time the tournament is held has changed so it might pay to go with the tried and tested formula of playing the form guide.
Looking at last year the greens were the second hardest to hit on the whole tour so getting greens in regulation hitters could whittle the field down for us. Those with a bit of length might well help too and generally when statistics are no help I side with those who can putt.
The field
Jimmy Walker defends the title as the 16/1 favourite but the betting market is very condensed behind him. Branden Grace is 18/1 after his win last week with Matt Kuchar 20/1. Patrick Reed is a 22/1 shot, the same price as twice champion Zach Johnson. Phil Mickelson, JB Holmes and Brandt Snedeker are all 25/1 pokes and it is 28/1 bar.
Main bets
With an absence of genuine angles in on this tournament I’m going to allow myself three main bets this week. Finding value is difficult with the prices of those at the head of the market so cramped so I’ll take those I think have a chance of contending over looking for standout prices.
JB Holmes is going along nicely at the minute which I’m pleased with having backed him for the money list this season. He just needs to get a win and this could be a really big year for him.
Since the turn of the year Holmes has had four top 11 finishes in the regular PGA Tour events and he was in a tie for fourth at The Masters a couple of weeks ago and that latest outing shows that he is hitting the ball nicely because conditions there were tough.
If the course remains soft he has the length to tear it up and with the all-round nature of his game much stronger he looks more than a live chance here. He should be right in the mix.
I’m not altogether sure what it is about this place but Charley Hoffman loves it here. He has featured in every tournament held on this course and his worst result is T13 which says plenty about his love affair for San Antonio.
If there is a concern for Hoffman it is that his Sunday performances aren’t the best but he is a tournament winner at this level and for the first three rounds he is generally pretty consistent. When he gets it right on Sundays he is going to take some stopping these days and given how good his record is here I’ll back him to put four rounds together this week rather than just three.
Chris Kirk was always a player I wanted to keep onside this year now that he has proven he is over his injury issues and I’m definitely doing that. Kirk has a putting stroke to die for and his performances have improved week on week recently.
This is a course which should suit him well enough. He is often in play off the tee and he can be aggressive with his iron play. When you putt as well as he does you can go after more flags as you know you’ll recover if you miss slightly. In these conditions he should be a leader player.
Outsiders
In truth you could make a name for plenty of outsiders this year and in fairness this is a tournament that throws up surprise winners although the relatively new course can account for some of them and the scheduling of the tournament the rest. I’m not convinced an outsider wins in this class of field but I will chance one.
Troy Merritt is another who is a really good putter and when he puts it together from tee to green he is often a tough guy to keep down. Merritt was third at Bay Hill not so long ago and just outside the top 10 of the Northern Trust Open where only a quiet final round denied him being much closer.
He isn’t someone who often fades when he is in contention. Getting in contention is often the difficult part but he was third in The Heritage in this week of last year so I’ll pay to see if he comes good in April once again given the price he is.
Tips
Back JB Holmes to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
WON – Back C.Hoffman to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back C.Kirk to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back T.Merritt to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Nice call on Hoffman Kev
Cheers mate. Put me through the ringer a little bit but got it done in the end!
Kev