The opening day of the Welsh Open promises to be one of the craziest days of snooker of the entire year as the whole first round, all 64 of them, will be played in one manic day on the green baize in Cardiff.
Everyone in the field takes part in the tournament on the first day so there will be some one-sided matches involving the big names, some shocks along the way and the odds really competitive tie. Those down the food chain are playing for £2,000 in their match so this is a really big day for some.
It is roll on, roll off for most of the day so players will be coming and going throughout. The main names are on the TV table as you would expect but the arena is so big most of the tables are in view for the crowd that turns up. This is usually a well-attended event so that’s something for the inexperienced players to cope with.
With 64 matches on Monday you have to pick and choose your bets carefully as it is very easy to do your nuts in style if you’re not but funnily enough the best of seven frame format might help that as handicaps aren’t quite as appealing in this type of match.
In terms of bets there is a bit of a mixed bag for me in that I’m going with a match bet, a handicap and a double over the course of the day. I’m leaving the big names alone. One usually loses in a round of this type especially with 16 players having been in Reading the day before the tournament started but it could be anyone who goes.
The match bet comes right from the off as Ross Muir and Jamie Burnett face off for the second time in a week or so. They met at the China Open qualifying last week and Muir won 5-0 on that occasion so I’m surprised he is as big as 13/8 to win this match.
Muir has had some good results this season. He beat Mark Davis in German Masters qualifying and has wins over Mark King and Alan McManus and he faces an opponent who has lost his form all of a sudden.
Prior to his humbling last week he failed to qualify for the German Masters and the World Seniors so neither of those are particularly good efforts and generally when Burnett gets in a slump it takes a while to come out of it so I’m on Muir to repeat his win of last week.
One handicap I like is Dave Gilbert to cover 2.5 frames against the Chinese player Zhang Yong. These two met in Shanghai Masters qualifying earlier in the season and Gilbert won 5-0 on that occasion and I wouldn’t be surprised if something similar transpires here.
We know Gilbert is cueing well. Anyone who saw that wonderful century he made in the Shootout over the weekend will be able to see that and having made a major final already this season he should be carrying plenty of confidence forward with him.
Zhang hasn’t won a match since October and he’s only won three all season with one of those being against an amateur so his first year on the tour hasn’t been a successful one yet. He hasn’t been to many venues so this whole scenario will be a bit alien to him which is also likely to go against him so the worst I see here is Gilbert winning 4-1.
I’m going to finish off Monday’s betting with a solid looking double. You get the feeling Ali Carter is about to go deep in an event again soon and this could be his week. He faces Cao Yupeng in the first round and I fancy the Captain to come through there.
Carter has been qualifying for most of the major events and he won the Paul Hunter Classic earlier in the season so this should be right up his street. Yupeng is really struggling at the minute. He has only won two matches against professionals this season and one of them was against a James Wattana who plays very sporadically these days so he is going to need to find something really big to come through this. I don’t see it. I think Carter will win this one.
I’m going to double Carter up with the talented Chinese youngster Zhou Yuelong. Yuelong really impressed at the Shootout with his break building leaping out at you and that is perfect for this sort of tournament.
Mitchell Mann, Yuelong’s opponent on Monday, had a good win over Mark Allen last week in China Open qualifying but I do wonder just how interested Allen was in that match. This will be the third year Allen hasn’t gone to Beijing and I’m not sure that is a co-incidence although I could be wrong.
Prior to that Mann had been well beaten in his last four matches. With the form and confidence Yuelong has I fancy Mann to return to the days of being beaten. This Chinese kid is going to be special in the future but he’s already good enough to come through the early rounds of these draws.
The double on Carter and Yuelong pays just under evens and that looks like a solid bet to me in the afternoon session.
Back R.Muir to beat J.Burnett for a 3/10 stake at 2.63 with Coral
WON – Back D.Gilbert (-2.5 frames) to beat Z.Yong for a 4/10 stake at 1.95 with Coral
Back A.Carter to beat C.Yupeng x Z.Yuelong to beat M.Mann for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with BetVictor
