The Tri-Nations Series continues on Monday evening when the West Indies and Australia meet for the second time in the tournament. This tournament has been quite interesting so far and with Australia moving top of the table on Saturday it looks to be between West Indies and South Africa for the other place in the final.
The Windies have the chance to gain an advantage on South Africa in this match which is the second match of the tournament in St Kitts.
West Indies
The West Indies go into this match with a win over South Africa and a defeat to Australia so far in the tournament. They batted badly against Australia in Guyana last week but these conditions should suit their batsmen much better. They will hope they do anyway.
Although Australia were chasing nothing in that match West Indies still managed to take four wickets so if their batsmen can deliver the goods then they might have the beating of Australia especially in these conditions.
Australia
After a surprising defeat to South Africa in their second match having thrashed the West Indies in their first one the world champions bounced back to see off South Africa on Saturday although for much of the second innings of that match they were well beaten parity so it is to the credit of their bowlers that they were able to fight back.
You get the feeling there are a few demons in this Australia batting line up and they will need to be ironed out before the final if they want the best chance of winning the series which judging by the intensity they have played with is exactly what they want.
Team News
West Indies don’t have a lot to call upon from the sidelines so even though they lost heavily to Australia last time out I’m not expecting too many changes. They will need to go out and bat better that is all. Jonathan Carter could be a option if they do make changes.
Australia will be forced into a change with David Warner potentially out of the series with a finger injury. He’s definitely out of this match so Travis Head or Glenn Maxwell are likely to replace him with Usman Khawaja moving up to open the batting.
Warner Park
The wicket at Warner Park played exactly how we expected it to in the previous match as it was good for batting but the quick bowlers enjoyed the pace and bounce in the track and in keeping with tradition on the ground the side batting first won.
That is now 11 of 15 matches on this ground that have been won by the side batting first so the toss could have a major bearing on this match based on that record. The wicket did look to slow up the longer the match went on in the game on Saturday.
Betting
Given that the toss could be important here I’m going to resist a pre-match bet on the match outcome but that doesn’t mean I’m not going to bet on the match at all. We’ve had a really good run on the side markets in this series so far and I’m going to look to take advantage of one of them again here.
The market of interest is the most sixes one where a shade under evens has to be too big on the West Indies when we take into account that Warner isn’t around for Australia here. Warner has accounted for 33% of the sixes Australia have hit in the series to date so him not playing dramatically reduces their output.
West Indies actually won the sixes battle when these two met in Guyana even though they could only put up 116. That 116 contained two sixes and Australia only hit one in reply and that really highlights the potential for the West Indies here.
I don’t see the West Indies batting as badly again and even if they do they are likely to belt a few balls out of this tiny ground before they go down. With no Warner Australia’s top order, Finch aside, largely play along the carpet so given the powerful nature of the West Indies batting they have to be the call to hit the most sixes here.
Tips
WON – Back West Indies Most 6s for a 4/10 stake at 1.95 with Coral
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