It is one-on-one combat for the best players in the world this week as 64 stars of golf head to Austin to compete in the WGC Dell Matchplay Championship, the opening WGC event of the year and one which always provides great action.
Scottie Scheffler provided plenty of that a year ago when he cruised to the title and he will be looking to make a successful defence of the crown to head to The Masters full of confidence ahead of his title defence there.
Recent Winners
2022 – Scottie Scheffler
2021 – Billy Horschel
2019 – Kevin Kisner
2018 – Bubba Watson
2017 – Dustin Johnson
2016 – Jason Day
2015 – Rory McIlroy
2014 – Jason Day
2013 – Matt Kuchar
2012 – Hunter Mahan
The Format
The 64 men in the competition have been drawn into 16 groups. The groups have been seeded so each one contains a player from the four pots which were made up of players ranked 1-16, 17-32, 33-48 and 49-64. As such you would think the better players in the world have something of an advantage here however of the 48 quarter finalists of the last six years only 16 of them have been from that 1-16 bracket.
The tournament begins with the group phase where each player plays the other three in his group once over the first three days. The winner of each group goes into the last 16. If there is a tie on points at the end of a group a play-off takes place. The last 16 and quarter finals are on Saturday with the semi-finals and the final on Sunday. Every match is over 18 holes. Extra holes will be played to determine the result of knockout matches.
The Course
We are at Austin Country Club for the sixth time this week and I have to say I love this course for Match Play. It is a par 71 measuring just the 7,108 yards but it is a good test of the all-round game and offers the right blend of tough holes with the risk and reward options that makes this format so entertaining. Generally this is a course for aggressive golf and the format makes for that as well so players who are confident into and on the greens should be favoured.
You would think that judging by the lack of size of it that everyone could feature here but there is a clear bias for the monster hitters, as evidenced by three of the champions here. Kevin Kisner has shown that you can prosper on this course without excess length but you have to be a wizard with the wedges. In the main it is a course where you can get an advantage if you get it out there especially down the last six or seven holes where you can really pound the driver.
The Field
The leading 64 eligible players in the world make their way to Austin this week to compete in the 18-hole match play jamboree. We have the elite in the game mixed in with the rising stars with plenty of world ranking and FedExCup points and huge money up for grabs. The defending champion Scottie Scheffler and world numbers two and three Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy are all in the field as are former winners in Texas such as Kevin Kisner, Billy Horschel and Jason Day.
More than a quarter of the field this week are debutants to Austin Country Club. The most recognised players among them are Tom Kim, Sam Burns who has usually passed on this event but doesn’t this time, Sahith Theegala and the Bay Hill champion Kurt Kitayama. Other notables in the field include Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton and the US Open champion Matthew Fitzpatrick.
Market Leaders
Scottie Scheffler is a native of Texas and his record around this golf course in recent times is quite incredible. He was the runner up to Billy Horschel in 2021 and then won the tournament a year ago so the 8/1 quotes about him winning the tournament again look perfectly fair. He has already successfully defended in Phoenix and took down The Players Championship. His caddy also won here with Bubba Watson. The format is quirky and his draw isn’t completely smooth but Scheffler does look a worthy favourite.
Jon Rahm is an 11/1 favourite to win the title this week. His record in this event isn’t what you would expect it to be. He was the finalist on debut in 2017 but hasn’t been past the quarter final since then. That is a big surprise because this course should suit him down to the ground. The immediate concern over Rahm is he had to pull out of The Players Championship with a stomach issue so we would need to know he is over that if we are going to back him to play seven rounds of golf in a week. His game tailed off a bit after he won the Genesis Invitational too. With his record here he isn’t for me.
Rory McIlroy won this tournament in the final year at Harding Park but after reaching the semi-final the first year it was staged in Austin, he has failed to come out of his group in three of the other four efforts he has had and lost in the last 16 of the other. I’ve felt for a while that being the unofficial spokesperson of the tour has taken its toll on McIlroy but that might not be the case this week with the attention much more on the golf with the early start. Nevertheless, whenever McIlroy tees it up here you wonder just how committed he is to this event and how much of an eye he has on Augusta in two weeks. You can get 14/1 on McIlroy to win this but his Austin record and recent form makes him easier to pass over.
Patrick Cantlay is the only other player who is shorter than 20/1 in the outright market on the best prices. The immediate thing to note about the 18/1 shot is that in four tries around here he has never come out of his group. He has been the top seed in the group on his last two tries too so that is very much a concern. He has had a quiet start to the season but in just seven events he has three top four finishes so at least he is in some form but that record of his here is a real turn off.
Main Bets
I’ll go for a bet in each quarter this week with two main bets and two outsiders. I’m keen to take bets with the bookmakers that are paying eight places. This is a long week and the last thing we need is to be on four places and then our player to have a tough L16 match and then run out of juice in a quarter final straight after which we would need him to win to secure a pay out.
It is all about the draw for me this week. In greyhound racing the best drawn dog should always be backed not the best dog and the best drawn runner this week is Tony Finau who looks to have a plot draw to the quarter final. The negative is that Finau has never come out of his group in this tournament but he’s had some real tough draws. In 2018 he beat Thomas Pieters and Kevin Na but lost to Alex Noren who is a bit of a match play specialist. In 2019 he lost to past winners of this in Kevin Kisner and Ian Poulter, two more match play giants while in 2021 he came second in his group after tying with Will Zalatoris and then last year he beat Xander Schauffele after losing his first two matches. It all adds up to a 5-6-1 record around here but I believe that is largely down to the draws he has had rather than the golf he has played. He is miles clear of the other three men in his group statistically. Two of those are debutants here and the other has an 0-5-1 record around here and should he come through his group the worst case scenario is a clash with Will Zalatoris who Finau should dominate on and around the greens. At 22/1 I don’t think Finau could ask for a better route to the quarter final and from there I’ll take my chances.
The other main bet comes from the top quarter where Jason Day has been on my radar for a while. He has a wonderful match play record having won this tournament twice including the first year it was held here. He is in the quarter that Scottie Scheffler is in but they wouldn’t meet until the quarter final but Scheffler has a horrible group with Tom Kim capable of anything and Alex Noren who has a brilliant match play record keeping him company. To be fair, Day doesn’t have a pushover group himself with Collin Morikawa and former semi-finalist Victor Perez waiting for him but Day starts out against debutant Adam Svensson which might be important. Day is miles clear of everything in terms of strokes gained in his group recently especially on the greens which is huge here. He’s fine if the wind blows and if he comes out of his group he would be the favourite to beat anyone from Group 8 in the last 16 so at 25/1 I’ll play the Aussie match play specialist here.
Outsiders
In the second quarter I like the look of the Sanderson Farms Championship winner Mackenzie Hughes who has been a little unlucky on his two trips to this course in the past. He won his group in 2021 beating good players in Webb Simpson and Paul Casey before losing to Sergio Garcia in the first knockout round and then last year he took care of Max Homa and Matthew Wolff but couldn’t overcome a Dustin Johnson who was perfectly suited to this course. There is no Garcia or DJ waiting for him this week and while a group of Jordan Spieth, Shane Lowry and Taylor Montgomery looks tough, Spieth has only come out of his group once in five goes here which was in 2021 when he was drawn against Matt Fitzpatrick whose record here is ordinary, Matt Wolff who was battling injury and Corey Conners. Lowry has a 2-7-3 record here and Montgomery is on debut. I think Hughes can come out of this group and do a bit of damage if he does so.
In the bottom quarter I’m going to take a man who has already won in Texas in his career and with proper Texas weather conditions expected this week that can’t be a bad thing. That person is Aaron Wise who is here for just the second time having gone 1-2 on his first trip here in 2019. The two men who beat him were Tiger Woods and Patrick Cantlay before he demolished Brandt Snedeker. That was a tough group and to be fair he doesn’t have an easy one here but Xander Schauffele has never come out of his group, Tom Hoge went 0-2-1 last year losing to Thomas Pieters and Billy Horschel and earning a tie against Min Woo Lee while Cameron Davis, who played well in the Presidents Cup, is on debut here. If Wise can escape this group he would then play the winner of the Matthew Fitzpatrick group where the US Open champion has never made the knockout stages here, Min Woo Lee finished third in that Hoge group here on his only appearance last year and Sahith Theegala and J.J. Spaun are on debut. The draw could soon open up for Wise here, especially with his short game as good as it is.
Tips
Back T.Finau to win WGC Dell Match Play (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Wise to win WGC Dell Match Play (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back J.Day to win WGC Dell Match Play (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Hughes to win WGC Dell Match Play (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
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