The third Grand Slam of the year has arrived as the grass courts of SW19 greet the best players in the world for the next fortnight as Wimbledon takes place with plenty of stories to follow over the course of the two weeks.
One is whether Carlos Alcaraz can complete a trio of Wimbledon successes having won the tournament for the second time last year. He will be up against a star-studded field all looking to win the grass court extravaganza themselves.
Recent Winners
2024 – Carlos Alcaraz
2023 – Carlos Alcaraz
2022 – Novak Djokovic
2021 – Novak Djokovic
2019 – Novak Djokovic
2018 – Novak Djokovic
2017 – Roger Federer
2016 – Andy Murray
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Novak Djokovic
The Format
We have the relatively new Grand Slam structure in place in this tournament which means that we have a tiebreak in the final set. Each match is the best of five sets and if it reaches 6-6 in the deciding set then the match will be settled with a first to 10 point tiebreak which we saw for the first time at the French Open last year. The 128 players have been inserted into the draw bracket and the tournament is a straight knockout with the champion being decided on the second Sunday.
Top Quarter
Jannik Sinner might never have won this title but since he last played at Wimbledon he has gone win, win, final in the Grand Slams so it is no surprise that he is the number one seed this week and at the top of the draw bracket as a result of that. He could be involved in an all-Italian quarter final if the section goes to the seedings as he is scheduled to meet Lorenzo Musetti in the last eight. As ever, six seeds will be out to stop that from happening. In this quarter they are Denis Shapovalov, Grigor Dimitrov, Tommy Paul, Ben Shelton, Ugo Humbert and Brandon Nakashima.
There has been such a switch in the rankings over the last 12 months that there are plenty of recognisable unseeded names in all of the quarters this year. In this one the likes of David Goffin, Gael Monfils and Reilly Opelka are probably the biggest three but Corentin Moutet was in the final in Mallorca last week so he brings some decent form to the Championships with him too. From a British perspective George Loffhagen and Johannus Monday are the representatives in this quarter.
Second Quarter
It is the British number one Jack Draper who is the highest seed in the second quarter of the draw. The second quarter can either be a stinker of a section or a wide open one and unfortunately for the Briton it looks like the former this year. That is because he is on a collision course with Novak Djokovic in the quarter final, although neither are guaranteed to get that far because the other seeds in the quarter are the Halle champion Alexander Bublik, who beat Draper at the French Open, Flavio Cobolli, Jakub Mensik, Alex de Minaur, Tomas Machac and Alex Michelsen.
It isn’t just the seeds who catch the eye in this quarter, plenty of unseeded players do too. From a British perspective, along with Draper we have Jay Clarke, Dan Evans and Jack Pinnington Jones flying the flag but this quarter also contains the former finalist Marin Cilic, who arrives here having won the title in Nottingham, Christopher Eubanks who could really have conditions to suit and then seasoned campaigners such as Sebastian Baez, Miomir Kecmanovic, Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Damir Dzumhur.
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Third Quarter
Alexander Zverev has never reached the quarter final of this tournament but he is seeded to make the semi-finals this year as the highest seed in quarter three of the draw. His poor record here will probably be music to the ears of Taylor Fritz who arrives at Wimbledon as the US Open finalist and with two grass court titles under his belt in the last month. He is scheduled to meet the German in the quarter final but six other seeds will fancy their chances in this section. They are the former finalist Matteo Berrettini, Karen Khachanov, Francisco Cerundolo, Daniil Medvedev, Alexei Popyrin and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Some big servers are also in this quarter from the unseeded fraternity and with hot and humid conditions in the early part of the tournament they will be hoping to do some damage. They include the French player Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Gabriel Diallo, Botic van de Zandschulp and Arthur Rinderknech. Pablo Carreno Busta and Jordan Thompson are veterans who will want to go well in this fortnight while the British charge comes from the former Junior champion Henry Searle, Billy Harris and Arthur Fery.
Bottom Quarter
It is this part of the draw where Carlos Alcaraz will look to make a successful defence of his title from. The Spaniard hasn’t lost at Wimbledon since 2022 and he is down to meet Holger Rune in the quarter final in what feels like a very favourable draw for the Spaniard. The other six seeds in this quarter hoping to end the Spaniard’s dominance are the Mallorca champion Tallon Griekspoor, Queens finalist Jiri Lehecka, Frances Tiafoe, Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitipas and Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Alcaraz begins his title defence against the veteran Fabio Fognini but the likes of Jan-Lennard Struff and Nicolas Jarry will be looking to make the most of their big serve in the early part of this tournament. In terms of the British perspective we have Jacob Fearnley, Oliver Crawford, Oliver Tarvet and Cameron Norrie in this quarter while another former semi-finalist is here in the shape of Roberto Bautista Agut, who made the last four at Queens. Jenson Brooksby was the Eastbourne finalist last week while Joao Fonseca has a huge reputation and is in this quarter too.
Outright Betting
We’re going to hear a lot about how this is a wide open draw but I really don’t see it like that. I would be surprised if this isn’t a Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic final for a third straight year. In terms of an outright bet I’m happy to invest in Novak Djokovic at 7/1. He is in the same half as Jannik Sinner, who is sure to face a grilling about his drugs issue throughout the fortnight and whose grass court record isn’t fantastic anyway and whoever goes well this week will need to finish points at the net early because conditions are going to be too firm and fast and also hot to be playing from the back of the court. Djokovic is better than all of the main contenders in that regard and were he not at the age of 38 he would be 7/4 with this draw. Sinner aside, there isn’t a lot to deny him a run to the final but on this surface any advantage Sinner would have in that match is heavily reduced. I like Djokovic here.
Just in case Jannik Sinner comes a cropper early in this tournament I will go with a smaller outright bet in his quarter, which comes in the form of the former Halle champion Ugo Humbert. The French player is never one to be totally trusted but at 300/1 I can place a little more faith in them than I would at 33/1. Humbert wouldn’t face Sinner until the quarter final so there are four rounds to get the Italian beaten and in truth, there isn’t much in terms of grass court specialism for Humbert to run into before then. If he can get his serve to be effective this week then he could give us a run at a monster price.
Quarter Betting
I don’t really want to oppose Carlos Alcaraz so I will use the bottom half for quarter betting. In the third quarter I want nothing to do with Alexander Zverev while Taylor Fritz flatters to deceive as a favourite in the big events far too much for my liking so I’m going to take a chance that Matteo Berrettini is fit enough to compete. If he is then his serve could be a huge weapon in the first week in particular. The Italian loves it at Wimbledon having made the final here in 2021 and if Zverev falters there isn’t much to stop the Italian before that scheduled quarter final with Fritz. This quarter could see a lot of tiebreaks and at 14/1 I’ll pay to see if Berrettini can come through enough of them.
Jiri Lehecka wasn’t a million miles away from getting the better of Carlos Alcaraz at Queens so should the two meet in the quarter final here the Czech wouldn’t have anything to fear. Clearly it will be harder to beat the Spaniard over three out of five sets but if he has a serving day like he can then he is more than capable of beating anyone. Lehecka is in the other half of the quarter to Alcaraz where Rune is the top seed. I don’t fear him on grass at all. Tallon Griekspoor could be an issue given his recent win in Mallorca but even then I think there is a lot more upside to the Czech. I’m not convinced we get Alcaraz beat but these conditions could catch anyone out so at 11/1 I’ll pay to see how Lehecka fares this fortnight.
Tips
Back N.Djokovic to win Wimbledon (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 8.00 with Sky Bet (1/2 1-2)
Back U.Humbert to win Wimbledon (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 301.00 with Sky Bet (1/2 1-2)
Back M.Berrettini to win 3rd Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with Unibet
Back J.Lehecka to win 4th Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 with Unibet
