Germany face the first big test in their World Cup title defence in the last of the three matches to take place in the tournament on Saturday. They go into their match with Sweden knowing that if they lose they will be out at the earliest opportunity.
By virtue of winning their opening match the pressure is somewhat off Sweden in this one. They know they have two shots at getting the second win which will ensure their progress so they can go all guns blazing at this match.
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Germany
It is not very often that a German side is ruthlessly exposed tactically in a global tournament but that was the case in their opening match of the competition. Mexico destroyed them on the counter and while you wouldn’t think Sweden would be able to match the flair and panache in which the Latinos attacked with it may have got Joachim Low thinking a little.
One of the issues we saw in that opening match was a lack of protection for the back four. In fairness we saw that in a couple of friendlies in the lead up to the tournament too so that is something that needs addressing. There is also no focal point to the German attack which is allowing sides to believe they can push men forward without being hurt.
Sweden
Given how important the opening match against South Korea was for Sweden, you have to give them great credit for the fact they were able to come through that match. It was tight, tense and very nervy but they kept on pursuing the goal and finally it came and they were able to protect it through to full time.
I don’t think that level of performance will be enough to get the job done in their final two matches so they will need to raise it a touch but at least they are not playing with the pressure of having to win this match. They had a good defensive structure against Korea which is never a bad platform to build from in any match.
Team News
Manchester United defender Victor Lindelof is expected to start for Sweden after illness ruled him out of their first match. He could come in for Leeds centre-back Pontus Jansson in what may be an unchanged side apart from that.
Marco Reus was surprisingly left on the bench to start the Mexico game by Joachim Low but that error is expected to be rectified. He could be one of a few changes the German boss makes as he looks to get his side back into the tournament.
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Betting
Germany got exposed tactically by Mexico but I expect a significant bounce back here with a real emphasis on not just winning the game but showing a ruthless streak and a complete performance. Sweden won their opening match and will be tough to break down but they may well run into Germany at the wrong time here. I can’t see Germany being as useless up front in this match so I expect them to win the game and cover a one goal handicap. If they win by one we get our money back but I’m confident Germany will power away here.
I also think we are going to see a bit of an open game here because this German back line is just begging to be got at. Mexico exposed it massively and if we think back to the friendlies before this tournament both Austria and even Saudi Arabia found a lot of joy against this defence. If Sweden show ambition, and they’ll have to if they go behind, I can see them scoring and contributing to a match which should contain more than 2.5 goals.
Tips
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