It is Group H which draws to a close in the World Cup on Thursday afternoon and while Poland already know their fate and will be going home when the full time whistle goes for the other three in the section it is a massive afternoon.
Japan begin the day in control of their own destiny. They know that a draw in their match with Poland will see them safely into the knockout stages while Colombia have to beat Senegal to make it through. If Senegal avoid defeat they will progress.
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Japan vs Poland
It is one of the biggest afternoons in the history of Japanese football. Just as their golden generation is coming to an end they have a golden opportunity to make it into the knockout stages when they take on a Poland team who has been very disappointing thus far.
I didn’t personally think Japan were that great in their opening match against Colombia but we saw a much better attacking performance from them in their second game against Senegal. The concern would be how open they look at the back but there is no harm in that if you can make up for it in attacking areas and there are signs that this team can.
Poland will be fairly high up in most judges lists of biggest disappointments at the tournament. With a solid defensive line, albeit forced to miss its lynchpin, and one of the best strikers in the world there was a lot of optimism around this Poland side going into the tournament but they have looked leggy, lethargic and quite honestly disinterested. No side wants to leave a World Cup without making an impression of any sort so we can expect their best performance here. That wouldn’t take too much.
Senegal vs Colombia
The other match in the group should be something of a cracker with Colombia having to take risks to win the game and Senegal needing something from it if they are to become the only African side to progress into the knockout stages.
I’ve enjoyed watching Senegal in this tournament. They have been expansive and looked to get on the front foot and while that ultimately cost them against Japan last time out it has been a refreshing change to the current landscape of supposed inferior sides looking to contain and do everything they can to avoid defeat.
Colombia were a joy to watch in their previous match against Poland. We should add that Poland were terrible but let us not take anything away from the South Americans. That was the only match we can really judge them on because they were dead men walking after losing a man after two minutes in their opening match. Colombia know they must score in this game and it will be great to see them go about their work.
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Betting
I am tempted to get stuck into Japan for their match I must admit but the fact that they only need to draw coupled with the fact we’ve seen literally every team who have been out of the competition deliver their best performance in the final match I will resist it as it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if a proper Poland show up with the pressure off.
That means my final two bets in this group will come in the other match where I expect Colombia to be too good for Senegal. This should be a great match to watch because both these sides have shown themselves to be open and expansive when going forward and there are defensive deficiencies in both too. I’m on Senegal to avoid defeat here courtesy of backing them to qualify but sadly I think that race is run now. At a shade under evens I think Colombia are the bet here and given the situation of this match and the importance of a goal I expect over 2.5 goals to land too. Colombia begin knowing they have to score and if they do score that pressure transfers to Senegal. That should ensure an open game in which the goals can flow.
Tips
WON – Back Colombia to beat Senegal for a 4/10 stake at 1.85 with Betfair
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Back Senegal vs Colombia – Over 2.5 goals for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with Betbright
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