Another qualifier for the World Cup will be determined on Monday night when Italy and Sweden play out of the second leg of their European qualifying play-off in Milan. Sweden go into the second leg 1-0 up courtesy of a win on Friday night but this tie could not be better poised especially for the neutrals.
Italy will be looking to continue a fine tradition of qualifying for major tournaments while Sweden will be looking for a second successive major tournament qualification having competed at Euro 2016.
Italy
To be fair to the Italians although they are behind in the tie they will be delighted to only be a goal behind because their first-leg performance was awful for the most part and it took all of their survival instincts to remain in touch. Having done that though they will now look to complete a turnaround and progress through to Russia.
We shouldn’t mask the fact that this has the potential to be a nervy night for the Italians. This is not a side of the vintage of previous eras and they have been known to struggle for goals. They have not scored more than one in any of their last five competitive matches. On the flip side of that they are generally big match players and their home form stands the test of time.
Sweden
Although they will be pleased to have something to cling on to at the San Siro, I would imagine there is also a sense of what might have been given how much Italy were there for the taking in that first leg. The bright point for Sweden from that game was that they did not concede and that was vital. That means if they score in this game Italy really good have it all to do.
One problem spot for the Swedes could be in their away form which has to be recognised as not being the best. They lost three of their five away games in qualifying and could only win 1-0 in Luxembourg. They are an edgy side on the road and it will be interesting to see whether their approach is to hold on to what they have or push for a killer away goal.
Team News
Italy are going to be without Marco Verratti whose yellow card in the first leg leaves him on the sideline for this match. Former West Ham flop Simone Zaza missed that first leg but has a chance of featuring here.
Sweden will welcome defender Mikael Lustig back from suspension for this match and he is expected to come straight back into the side. Albin Ekdal is doubtful after the injury he picked up in the first game.
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Betting
I have to say I don’t rate this Italy side all that highly but you have to respect their home record and when you match it up to Sweden’s struggles on the road and I think the Italians will win this match. Whether they do so by the margins needed to qualify in 90 minutes or even qualify at all remains to be seen.
I like the fact that they know what they have to do in this match. They have to win it. We saw on Sunday night that Switzerland got caught in two minds about whether to push on or hold onto what they had and in the end did neither and got away with it. Sweden could be in the same position. In front of a packed San Siro I expect the passion on show to lead Italy to a win over the 90 minutes at the very least.
Tips
Back Italy (-1AH) to beat Sweden for a 4/10 stake at 1.88 with Bet365
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