The PGA Tour regular season ends this week as the Wyndham Championship takes place and it is a big tournament for those who are not in the top 70 in the FedExCup rankings as they only have this event to get in there to extend their campaign.
Tom Kim headed into the playoffs with the ultimate confidence boost of a win in this tournament a year ago but having qualified for next week already he has chosen to have the week off rather than attempt to defend the title.
Recent Winners
2022 – Tom Kim
2021 – Kevin Kisner
2020 – Jim Herman
2019 – JT Poston
2018 – Brandt Snedeker
2017 – Henrik Stenson
2016 – Si Woo Kim
2015 – Davis Love III
2014 – Camilo Villegas
2013 – Patrick Reed
The Course
We are back at Sedgefield Country Club this week. Once again the Donald Ross designed track is a par 70 which measures 7,131 yards now after a small lengthening of the 14th hole. This is a low scoring tournament so immediately you should be looking for players who are capable of playing golf on the front foot but not necessarily those who belt it miles as length isn’t really in play here as you can see from the list of past winners above.
Generally the recipe for success here is hit the fairway, hit the greens and hole some putts so we are looking for the accurate types who can get hot with the putter on medium paced greens. The rough isn’t particularly thick this week so although that will encourage the bigger hitters, this is a week for those who are accurate rather than long to take centre stage and build up to the opening playoff event next week in style.
The Field
Given that we are a week away from the business end of the PGA Tour season beginning the majority of the leading names are taking this tournament off to be fresh for what they hope are three lucrative events. In the main the bigger players in the field here are either searching for a spot in next week or looking to find some form ahead of that event. That equates to the likes of Hideki Matsuyama and Justin Thomas having tee times.
Other leading lights who are teeing it up this week include Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry, with the Irishman needing a result to qualify for the playoffs, former winner J.T. Poston, Adam Scott and Billy Horschel. Young guns such as Ludvig Aberg and Taylor Moore are in the field as well and then the likes of Denny McCarthy will be looking to convert a positive run of form into a maiden PGA Tour title at Sedgefield.
Market Leaders
When you consider he has recent form figures here of T9-T7-T5 around here, it is probably no surprise that Russell Henley is the 20/1 favourite to win the tournament this week. There is an easy case to be made that the bottom has fallen out of his price with the American fairly well backed because of that previous form. The big concern for backers of him isn’t his long game but despite what we regularly hear on Sky, he is no longer the great putter he was five or so years ago and in a low scoring event a short range miss could prove costly.
Hideki Matsuyama can also be backed at 20/1 this week and I guess you would have to say the same with regards to his putting. He isn’t as poor as Henley but he is certainly streaky with the putter and if he has a cold week then he is going to struggle here. There is very much an all or nothing look to his form here as he is either in the top 15 or misses the cut which highlights my assessment. He might be one to get on in play if the putter looks good in the first round.
Si Woo Kim has a very good record on Donald Ross designs and won here back in 2016 so he will be popular at 22/1 this week. Kim hasn’t just won around here but he has won The Players Championship too which is never a bad form guide for this tournament. As well as his win here, Si Woo Kim has three other top five finishes and is a winner on the PGA Tour this year so he has to be looked upon as a leading contender.
Sungjae Im seemingly plays every week and he is teeing it up as a 22/1 shot here too. He throws up the question of whether to take course form or current form here. He has three top 10s around this track, including chasing home his compatriot Tom Kim a season ago, but his recent form leaves plenty to be desired. It is almost three months since he cracked the top 15 on the PGA Tour and that is enough of a concern for me to sit out.
Main Bets
There can’t be many players heading to Sedgefield this week feeling better about their game than J.T. Poston. He has three top six finishes in his last four starts which includes jointly heading up the leaderboard in the tournament which was going on behind runaway winner Lee Hodges last week. He is a former winner here winning this tournament without making a single bogey all week so we know that he can tame the test that is in front of him this week. The other time he won on the PGA Tour he shot -21 so going low is not alien to him. Given the lack of genuine top dogs in the field here I’m surprised we can get 28/1 on him winning this for a second time. I’m happy to be on.
Shane Lowry needs a positive result this week or else he will be watching on when the FedExCup playoffs begin next week and seven weeks out from the Ryder Cup beginning he really doesn’t want to be missing out on the big events and having an unexpected month off. He has actually driven the ball well this year, sitting at 30 on the PGA Tour for driving accuracy, he hasn’t converted those good positions off the tee often enough but we are talking about a man who won The Open in front of a home crowd putting pressure on him so we know the situation won’t get the better of him. He hasn’t gone badly in recent weeks, he just hasn’t had that eye catching finish which would have secured the top 70 for him. While he might end up playing for position which is a concern, he would need to be high up on the leaderboard for that to come into play and from there I’d expect a winner to be looking to win the tournament. I think his motivation is high enough to warrant backing here.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three outsiders this week with the first of them being Kevin Streelman who can hit a lot of fairways when he is in form. The fact that he finished in a tie for second last week, on a course which probably would be considered too long for him, certainly suggests that he is in form, or at least hit the ball very sweetly last week. Streelman was T7 here a couple of years ago so he has form at this track. When you look deep into the recent form of Streelman there is plenty to suggest he might be overpriced in addition to what I have already said. He was in the top 10 at Colonial and more recently although he missed the cut at TPC River Highlands he opened with a 65 and then the following start at the John Deere Classic he carded a second round 63. He then put four rounds together last week and if he can repeat that here he should be capable of a strong finish.
My second outsider is Chez Reavie who I’m convinced still has a win in him and this is the last time this season he will be able to deliver it given that the last three events are all going to be elite fields on huge courses. Reavie sits at 18 in driving accuracy on the PGA Tour and with this course certainly not too long for him I expect him to be a factor this week. His record on courses which aren’t affiliated with bombers still reads good, the latest of which saw him finish fourth in the Travelers Championship where he went into the final round as the closest challenger to an unbeatable Keegan Bradley on the week. With most parts of his game working I’ll pay to see how Reavie goes here.
Finally David Lingmerth caught my eye at the Scottish Open and I duly backed him at The Open where after 18 holes he was in decent enough shape before he dropped away over the weekend. Nevertheless, the result at the Scottish Open where he was tied for third has him in with every chance of making it through to next week with a decent outing here. Lingmerth is 15 for driving accuracy on the tour this season and is a decent putter so if he can dial some irons in then he should be capable of having a big week here. This isn’t a course where good drivers will be hitting long irons which should help the Swede fire at a few flags and like Lowry with plenty of motivation on his side I’ll pay to see how he goes.
Tips
Back J.T. Poston to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back S.Lowry to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back D.Lingmerth to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back K.Streelman to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Reavie to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
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