The penultimate tournament of the PGA Tour season takes place this week as the 50 players remaining in the hunt for FedExCup glory head to Denver looking to make it through to next week as high in the rankings as possible.
Viktor Hovland won this tournament a year ago before going on to land the FedExCup and he’ll be looking for a successful defence of his title and set himself up to defend the big one next week. 49 other players will be out to stop him.
Recent Winners
2023 – Viktor Hovland
2022 – Patrick Cantlay
2021 – Patrick Cantlay
2020 – Jon Rahm
2019 – Justin Thomas
2018 – Keegan Bradley
2017 – Marc Leishman
2016 – Dustin Johnson
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Billy Horschel
The Course
This is the one leg of the playoffs which moves courses and we are at the Castle Pines Golf Club just south of Denver in Colorado this week. This course has been used on the PGA Tour in the past but not since 2006 and it has undergone a number of changes since then, with them led by Jack Nicklaus. The course the players will take on is now a par 72 which stretches to an eye watering 8,130 yards. The caveat is that we are massively at altitude this week so the ball flies around 15% further than usual which in effect brings it down to nearer a 7,300 yard track.
As with most Nicklaus designs, this has become a second shot golf course with the emphasis more on distance control rather than accuracy but there will be some danger around the greens as there always is with this course designer. The winner this week is likely to need both a hot putter and a bit of patience because the weather is expected to bring afternoon storms for at least the first two days. There is no cut this week and a small field so it shouldn’t delay the tournament too much.
The Field
Just 50 players remain in the hunt for the FedExCup and only the leading 30 players in the standings at the end of this week will progress to the season finale in Atlanta next week. Getting there is one thing but with the handicap system in place at the Tour Championship being there as highly ranked as possible has merit. That isn’t something that the top two in the standings need to worry about with Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele near enough guaranteed a good starting position next week.
Hideki Matsuyama boosted his spot in the rankings with a win at TPC Southwind last week while Viktor Hovland is the defending champion and he is in the field as well. Denny McCarthy is the man currently heading off the challengers for the final spot at East Lake next week with the likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young, Adam Scott, Max Homa and Keegan Bradley all looking for the sort of result this week which takes their season down to the last event.
Market Leaders
Scottie Scheffler didn’t cut a happy figure in Memphis last week but he heads to Denver as the 7/2 favourite to win the tournament. I understand why he is the favourite but potential backers have to ask themselves just how interested he needs to be this week. Unless Xander Schauffele wins the tournament, Scheffler heads to East Lake with the advantage on the leaderboard so this feels like a tournament he really doesn’t need to bust a gut to win as he chases a first FedExCup title next week.
Xander Schauffele is second in the betting at 13/2 and he knows that unless Hideki Matsuyama wins the tournament he will go to East Lake starting the week on eight under unless he wins here. I’m sure he would like to win and go to Atlanta with the two shot lead but he is going to be in a good spot whatever happens here, especially with his good record in the tour finale. You therefore have to question just how much he needs to put into this week and whether the 13/2 is worth backing or not.
Collin Morikawa is fourth in the FedExCup standings heading into the tournament and he is 14/1 to bolster his position by lifting the trophy here. In theory you would think that his stunning iron play would have him right in the mix here and when you consider that the greens are going to be new for near enough everyone in the field there is even more to like about Morikawa. Some questionable final rounds in big situations this year would be the only concern though.
Rory McIlroy currently sits at fifth on the FedExCup list and he’ll be looking to nudge a little higher heading to East Lake where he will be chasing a fourth season overall title if at all possible. You have to say he didn’t look like a golfer who was in any kind of smooth groove at TPC Southwind last week and at altitude you probably don’t need to be leaking the ball too much. You’re never surprised if McIlroy wins a tournament but in this company he needs a massive improvement on last week if he is going to get the job done and I’m not sure it is coming.
Main Bet
It is very rare that I take a defending champion for a tournament but I am prepared to change my stance on that for the playoffs because generally the attention going into an event is on those right at the top of the rankings and on the bubble plus this particular tournament switches courses as well so it isn’t like a regular event where the time restraints on the champion in the lead up to day one is bigger than usual. That makes me think that Viktor Hovland is worth backing this week.
The Norwegian looked back into the sort of form we would come to expect from him when he finished second last week and we know he can control his golf ball at altitude and get the distance control right because he has twice won in Mexico in the past. Any time a course requires accurate iron play Hovland immediately rises above most on any shortlist and when you through in the unknown greens for near enough everyone in the field here, Hovland isn’t even disadvantaged on the greens going in. He looks a standout bet to me.
Outsiders
I’ll play a couple of outsiders who I think can go well around here. Matthew Fitzpatrick immediately caught my eye at a decent price. He has an incredible record in the Swiss Alps on the DP World Tour where he has a pair of wins, a second, a third and another top 10 in just seven starts. That tells us that his distance control at altitude isn’t a problem and we know having followed his career that he is an excellent iron player. Fitzpatrick sits outside the top 30 coming in this week so there might be a point where he focuses purely on getting to East Lake but generally when he’s in contention he doesn’t back down so I’ll pay to see if he can book his spot in Atlanta in the best possible way.
Alex Noren is another one who has to work his way into next week. Unlike Fitzpatrick, he is going to need a very good finish to get in to the Tour Championship so that bodes well. He shouldn’t be in a position where he can accept a slightly lower finish and play for it. Noren is another who has won the Omega European Masters twice in the Swiss Alps and he has another two top 10 finishes so he is more than assured at altitude. We know the strength of his game is the iron play which bodes well here. He has been in decent enough form over the last month or so and with motivation high he should go well here.
Tips
Back V.Hovland to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 19.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back M.Fitzpatrick to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back A.Noren to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
