After a narrow and hard fought victory in the opening match of the series in Sydney three weeks ago, Queensland will go into Game 2 of the 2016 State of Origin knowing they can secure the shield for another year and keep their impressive streak of wins going if they can win in front of their own fans in Brisbane.
For the New South Wales Blues the equation is simple. They must win to force a decider back in Sydney. Defeat here and this young side will lose another battle so the stakes are incredibly high.
Queensland Maroons
The win in the opening match for Queensland was built on a solid defence, a good strategy and just enough about them in attack to edge home. They have experienced being in front in the series quite a few times and that can count for a lot over the course of the 80 minutes here. The pressure isn’t on them to force things.
Queensland have a good record in their own state so they will be full of confidence going into this match and they certainly don’t lack for an incentive or motivation. A win here will secure their 10th series in the last 11 years.
New South Wales Blues
The Blues will be heading into the Lion’s den here knowing that they have to come out on top to keep the series alive but that won’t be easy. They fielded a number of debutants in the opening game of the series and they struggled so how they are going to cope in the heat of Brisbane remains to be seen.
New South Wales lacked creativity around the ruck and their kicking game was pretty ordinary in the opening match and they are both things that will have needed to have been improved upon if they are to be competitive here but they won’t need reminding of the fact they have taken heavy beatings in their last two trips to Suncorp.
Team News
The Maroons have made one change to their starting line up for this match. Josh McGuire replaces Nate Myles in the forwards with Jacob Lillyman coming up onto the bench for the game.
The Blues have been forced into a couple of changes through injury and one of them is particularly significant as Josh Morris misses out. Dylan Walker replaces him while Greg Bird comes into the starting line up having been on the bench for the first game. Tyson Frizzell and Jack Bird make the 17.
Betting
I thought the opening match would be tight and I wasn’t wrong with that but I’m not so sure this one will be. The stakes are too high for this one to be tight and if NSW fall behind they are going to have to take risks to get themselves back into the match while this is Queensland’s real chance to win the series.
I thought inexperience cost New South Wales in the opening game of the series and I just don’t see how that side are going to turn things around to win in Brisbane with the crowd against them and conditions so much more different. The Blues are a side who like to use their forwards and ride off the back of a solid kicking game in the halves but these might not be the conditions for that.
In contrast Queensland are a side who love to throw the ball around and get the three quarters and the entire back line involved and tire opposition forwards out which is why they are so successful both in this series as a whole but particularly in Brisbane.
After what we saw in the opening match of the series I just don’t see how New South Wales can be competitive here. I’m with the Maroons to win this going away as they have the last two on this ground. I don’t think a four point handicap is anywhere near enough here and I don’t think an 18.5pts line for Queensland’s total is high enough either. I expect them to run in four tries here and with Thurston doing the kicking that will be more than enough for 20pts.
State of Origin Tips
WON – Back Queensland (-4) to beat New South Wales for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Bwin
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WON – Back Queensland Over 18.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Skybet
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