The final ante-post market that we are going to look at prior to the beginning of the Premier League season is the Top Goalscorer one which is always a popular market to get stuck into. Some of the best strikers in the world ply their trade in the division so this should be quite competitive this season.
Recent Winners
2016/17 – Harry Kane
2015/16 – Harry Kane
2014/15 – Sergio Aguero
2013/14 – Luis Suarez
2012/13 – Robin van Persie
2011/12 – Robin van Persie
2010/11 – Dimitar Berbatov & Carlos Tevez
2009/10 – Didier Drogba
2008/09 – Nicolas Anelka
2007/08 – Cristiano Ronaldo
The Favourites
Harry Kane will begin the season as the 10/3 favourite to land a hat trick of Golden Boot titles but I do have a couple of concerns. Firstly Tottenham are at Wembley this year and as such they may not be as potent and secondly I would not be surprised if the European giants come in at some point and test Tottenham’s resolve. He is known to pick up injuries too.
Romelu Lukaku will be under pressure to score goals at Manchester United this season. He is the 9/2 second favourite to top score this season and he certainly is not going to lack for chances. Whether pressure tells will be another thing but there is a lot to like about the Belgian powerhouse.
Sergio Aguero is the 7/1 third favourite to roll back the years and top score but the concern has to be whether he will get enough game time with Gabriel Jesus around the place. Jesus is 9/1 and might represent a better bet as Guardiola’s man but with the goals at the Etihad likely to be shared out both are skinny.
The Contenders
New Arsenal signing Alexandre Lacazette is 12/1 to top score this season. If Alexis Sanchez leaves there is mileage in this price. If he doesn’t I just wonder whether there will be enough goals for the pair of them. There are question marks whether he is cut out for the Premier League too which won’t help.
Alvaro Morata is another who is new to the league and he is also 12/1 to be the top scorer this season. There is no doubt that he is a class act and Antonio Conte knows him well but if this is a season of upheaval at the Bridge and Conte leaves I’m not sure I’d fancy Morata.
Alexis Sanchez is next in the betting but you are taking a massive leap of faith that he will remain in the division for the entire season. He clearly isn’t going to be at Arsenal but if he joins City he could be the real value but is it worth backing him to have you dough dead inside three weeks if he heads to Paris or somewhere abroad?
Diego Costa is the only other man shorter than 33/1 in the betting but there is zero chance he will be at Chelsea come the end of January even if he is still there at the end of August which is doubtful.
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Betting
Those who have followed me in these markets in the past will know I like to look for the value. I don’t like having money tied up in short prices for nine months especially in this market where one semi-significant injury does our dough.
I’m going for bigger prices and one man worth a go at the prices has to be Jermain Defoe. He bagged 15 goals in a rank Sunderland side in each of the last two seasons and he has now moved to Bournemouth who are much more prolific in terms of creating chances. Defoe is an out and out goalscorer and with the way Bournemouth play he should get a host of chances and if he takes his fair share of them 66/1 will look massive quite quickly.
I’m also going to take a chance on young Tammy Abraham at Swansea City. While it was only in the Championship the Chelsea loanee showed that he knows where the back of the net is last season when he was at Bristol City. It remains to be seen whether he will get enough chances without Sigurdsson at Swansea but Llorente still scored 15 goals in that side last year so there is the potential for him to make a three figure price look stupid.
Tips
Back J.Defoe Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfair (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
Back T.Abraham Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with BetVictor (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
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