The opening day of the BMW PGA Championship from the West Course at Wentworth is set to be played under blue skies in warm and sunny conditions which should allow us an excellent chance to nail a few bets on the first round.
As ever in these big tournaments markets such as the first round leader are priced up as is every group to go out on the golf course. The thing I like about this tournament is that everyone goes off the first tee right through the day which gives it a major feel. We’ll get stuck into those markets.
First Round Leader
I’ve covered enough of these markets now to not have to reiterate that a check of the weather forecast is paramount. That should be natural now. When we look at the forecast for Wentworth on Thursday we can see that the wind is expected to be much stronger in the afternoon than the morning so that makes our first round leader picks easier to find. We want players who are out in the easier morning conditions.
With that in mind we’ll get rid of anyone who tees off after 11am is getting ruled out because they’ll be playing their back nine if not longer when the wind is up. A quick scoot through the tee times and I’ve found a couple I like who keep to my strategy this week of finding fairways.
I’ve backed Luke Donald outright but he looks to have an ideal tee time to get stuck in early. Even with all the changes he will know this course so well and in many ways the changes won’t affect him anyway because he’s never off the fairway and the faster the greens the better he plays. With an 8.15am tee time he’s out in the perfect position to go well.
A couple of groups after Luke Donald we have Ross Fisher on the golf course and the local man should fancy his chances of a decent round here. He is another who drives the ball brilliantly well and we’ve seen throughout the years that he putts well on good greens. I think he could be a sleeper this week and with an 8.35am tee time this is the ideal chance for a good start.
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3 balls
All the groups have been priced up for the opening round and there are three of them which have caught my fancy.
Francesco Molinari/Russell Knox/Tyrrell Hatton
Match tees off at 08.00 BST
One of the marquee groups in the morning is the three ball featuring three men who predominantly spend their time on the PGA Tour, or certainly have done at the beginning of the year. Francesco Molinari’s record around here has been well documented but I’m going to take him on.
I’m not doing so with Russell Knox though because his form doesn’t look in the greatest of touch so it is Tyrrell Hatton who I like here. Hatton is a regular GIR finder and we can’t really look too much into his record here for the simple reason being that he is relatively new to top ranked golf having only really hit those heights in the last 12-18 months. He has an ideal game for here though and at the price he looks worthy of support against a Molinari who didn’t adjust to the change from American conditions to these ones last year.
Joost Luiten/Bradley Dredge/Scott Hend
Match tees off at 09.30 BST
This group looks a competitive one but I certainly like Joost Luiten in it. Scott Hend can smack it miles and if he is on a going day then he’ll be hard to beat but he has too many loose shots for my liking and I don’t think he’ll get away with them. Bradley Dredge is a good player but this company might be too hot for him.
If you look at Luiten’s form you might think he isn’t playing well but he has been very consistent this year with a raft of top 30 finishes in conditions which probably haven’t always suited him. These will though I think because his tee to green game is so good. He has a couple of top 12 finishes here and banged out an opening round 65 last year. Anything like that this year will be more than enough but if he breaks 70 I think he has every chance.
Marc Warren/Adrian Otaegui/Callum Shinkwin
Match tees off at 14.50 BST
This is an interesting three ball later in the afternoon especially with the wind likely to be at its strongest at this point in the day. The group might not have the biggest galleries but I think it has betting potential.
We can pretty much rule Callum Shinkwin out because he arrives here having missed his last six cuts since making the cut at the Abu Dhabi Championship in January and he is making a debut here. Adrian Otaegui has missed four of his last five cuts and is playing here for just the second time.
Marc Warren is much more experienced around here and looks to be playing nicely enough especially if his form in the GolfSixes is anything to go by. The stronger the wind the more comfortable he will be and having tamed this course a few times in his career. Prior to last year where his game was in all sorts of bad shape he had three successive top 20 finishes here. He should have more than enough for his playing partners here.
Tips
Back R.Fisher First Round Leader (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with BetVictor (1/4 1-5)
Back M.Warren to beat A.Otaegui & C.Shinkwin for a 3/10 stake at 2.38 with BetVictor
Back them here:
Back L.Donald First Round Leader (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back T.Hatton to beat F.Molinari & R.Knox for a 3/10 stake at 2.88 with 888sport
Back him here:
Back J.Luiten to beat B.Dredge & S.Hend for a 3/10 stake at 2.25 with William Hill
Back him here:
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