After an exciting week of snooker out in Guangzhou, the final of the China Championship is upon us and in that final we have a man used to winning ranking events in Shaun Murphy, and a player looking for his first major title in Luca Brecel.
These two are no strangers to meeting each other but this is the biggest match they will play. It will take place over two sessions and the best of 19 frames with the first to 10 being the winner.
Shaun Murphy
You could argue Shaun Murphy has had the easier route to the final, in terms of the fact that he has only beaten one man in the top 16 in the rankings, but he has faced a couple of dangerous players too in Stephen Maguire and Zhou Yuelong, so we should not do his achievements this week any discredit.
Aside from the Carter match where he was 4-2 down at one point, Murphy has largely cruised through the draw since the first round, when he could easily have been knocked out by Ken Doherty. He has been scoring well and more importantly, he has been punishing his opponents and denting their confidence.
Luca Brecel
There is no doubt that of the two men, Luca Brecel has had the tougher route to this final. The Belgian has seen off two of the men of 2017 so far in Marco Fu and Ronnie O’Sullivan, and is now in the mood for his first major title. If he were to win here then he would be set up nicely for what is a big season with an event being in his home country.
It might be that Brecel is freerolling heading into this final. I say that because in the quarter final he was 4-1 down to O’Sullivan and surely thinking he was out of the tournament, and then in the semi-final he was 5-4 down to Li Hang but on each occasion he came through in a deciding frame. That fighting quality should not be underestimated.
Head to Head
This will be the eighth meeting between these two men. Murphy leads overall 4-3 but Brecel has won three of the last four battles, including their only one this season, which came in the qualifying event for the Riga Masters.
This is the first time they have played over the best of 19 frames. Their previous longest matches came in best of 11 affairs, with Murphy winning all three times. All three of Brecel’s wins came in best of seven frame clashes.
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Betting
I understand why Shaun Murphy is a favourite in this final but I’m not writing Luca Brecel off just yet. There is a concern that the late finish of Brecel’s semi-final could take its toll but he is a young lad who should be fine even if it is adrenaline that has to get him through.
Both these men have shown their fighting qualities this week and as such I don’t see either running away with this. They are clearly both scoring nicely and I don’t envisage too much in the way of safety play here.
Brecel was not as fluent as he would have liked against a military paced Li Hang in the semi-final, but the flow of this one should be much more to his liking so the odds against on over 16.5 frames looks worth taking.
Tips
Back Over 16.5 frames for a 4/10 stake at 2.10 with Bwin
Back him here:
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