The European Tour’s Desert Swing concludes this week with the pick of the three tournaments in the Middle East – the Dubai Desert Classic. This tournament never fails to deliver a top drawer field and this year it has a special visitor from overseas as Tiger Woods will tee it up.
The event rarely needs extra profile but it has certainly got it here and all eyes will be on the American legend to see how he fares in what is a stellar looking line up for the tournament.
Recent Winners
2016 – Danny Willett
2015 – Rory McIlroy
2014 – Stephen Gallacher
2013 – Stephen Gallacher
2012 – Rafa Cabrera Bello
2011 – Alvaro Quiros
2010 – Miguel Angel Jimenez
2009 – Rory McIlroy
2008 – Tiger Woods
2007 – Henrik Stenson
The Course
The Emirates Golf Club remains the venue for this tournament as it has been ever since the inception of the event back in 1989 with the exception of two years around the turn of the century.
This course is the firmest and fastest of the three on the Desert Swing and at 7,328 yards for a par 72 it isn’t an especially long course especially when you factor in the firmness of it and the fact that the ball travels through the air a lot quicker in the sultry heat.
Given how firm this course is it is better being played from the fairways. The rough here is never too penal but the greens are like glass and anything coming from the rough just won’t hold onto the putting surfaces. Fairways and greens is the key to success. With wind forecast towards the weekend those comfortable in blowy conditions should be favoured.
The Field
Tiger Woods might be the headline name and attraction but the field contains The Open champion Henrik Stenson as well as The Masters champion and defending champion Danny Willett. Major champions Darren Clarke, Graeme McDowell, Martin Kaymer and Trevor Immelman also tee it up.
They are joined by the winners of the first two Desert Swing winners Tommy Fleetwood and Jeunghun Wang and Hong Kong Open winner Sam Brazel is here too as is the season opener champion Brandon Stone. Matt Fitzpatrick will be looking for a Dubai double having won the DP World Tour Championship to close out last season.
Market Leaders
Henrik Stenson is a 7/1 favourite to win the title once again. Stenson got going for the year with a top 10 in Abu Dhabi and you would expect him to come on for the run. The Open champion is clearly the standout man in this field but even then 7/1 is a little short for me.
Rafa Cabrera Bello has won on this course and you would think it is only a matter of time before he wins again although sloppy Sundays are beginning to become a worrying feature for the Ryder Cup star. In truth that is the only thing putting me off him at 20/1 quotes.
Sergio Garcia is a couple of points bigger than his Spanish colleague. He is 22/1 to win this week which is the same price as Tyrrell Hatton and Bernd Wiesberger who were both in contention for long periods in Abu Dhabi two weeks ago.
Martin Kaymer heads to Dubai as a 25/1 chance to win a title which has so far proved elusive. A lack of length off the tee could be a reason for that and that is a genuine concern. It is 33/1 bar those named.
Main Bets
There is a belief that you have to belt it miles around here to win but Danny Willett, Miguel Angel Jimenez and Stephen Gallacher have shown that doesn’t have to be the case. As it happens I’m going with two main bets this week and both can get it out there off the tee.
Jeunghun Wang might have won last week but I don’t think that means he can’t win again. He is a man in hot form right now having preceded his win in Qatar with an 11th placed finish in Abu Dhabi. Wang showed last year that he can win in back to back weeks when he won in Morocco and then Mauritius and on both occasions he had the wind to contend with which is a real positive.
There is no weakness in Wang’s game. He drives it lovely, attacks the right areas with his irons and he has a dream putting stroke which is going to win him plenty of money and titles. I’m not sure whether he is 33/1 because he won last week and that is seen as a negative or if bookmakers still don’t realise how good he is but I realise it and he’s my first main bet.
Regulars with know I’m a sucker for Kiradech Aphibarnrat and I like him this week. The Thai drives the ball lovely and he is better on tracks with there is some room off the tee like this one has. We know he can handle the wind, he has shown that many times and with him putting as well as he is there is a win for him coming real soon. I think he is worth a wager in the hope that it is this week that it comes.
Outsiders
I’ll throw darts at three men. They fit the criteria of solid drivers, generally good putters and comfortable in the wind. The first is the man who lost in the playoff last week in Joakim Lagergren.
I’ve long thought there is a win at this level for Lagergren and so I was glad he didn’t come through last week with me not on him. I’m happy to take him here though. He generally drives the ball well, hits a lot of greens and he is a good putter. Like most Swedes he is comfortable in the wind too. Lagergren was in the top 20 of all the main stats last week and a repeat of that puts him in with every chance here.
For some reason Stephen Gallagher comes alive on this course. He has won here twice and prior to last year’s missed cut he had five top 10 finishes in a row on this track including those two wins. Gallagher has been out of form since the 2014 Ryder Cup but the last two events of last year and the first two this year he showed better things where he found a lot of fairways and greens but had no joy on the greens. If he is going to putt better anywhere it will be here so at a three figure price I’ll ride the course horse.
Lucas Bjerregaard drives the ball well and being Scandinavian we know he won’t have any issues with the wind. Putting is clearly the weaker part of his game but these greens are firm and fast so if he can find the right lines he might well hole a few putts. He’s worth a go at a big price.
Tips
Back J.Wang to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back S.Gallacher to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back them here:
Back K.Aphibarnrat to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back J.Lagergren to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back L.Bjerregaard to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 141.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
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